Grangemouth - draft Just Transition Plan: consultation analysis

Part 1: Baseline

The baseline section of the Just Transition Plan offers an overview of the current Grangemouth Industrial cluster. It maps industrial activity and production, as well as wider impacts on the surrounding town and people of Grangemouth. In Part 1 of the consultation document, the Scottish Government asked for the public’s views on 6 questions relating to the Baseline section of the Just Transition Plan. These questions explored whether the baseline accurately reflects current circumstances, what additional information could improve its accuracy, and invited suggestions for further data to be considered. Respondents were also asked for their views on Grangemouth’s role in the Net Zero economy, the level of community involvement in this transition, and the need to improve quality of life for residents. This section summarises the thematic analysis of these, structured according to the specific questions asked.

1. Does the baseline section of the draft Grangemouth Just Transition Plan accurately represent current circumstances at Grangemouth?

More respondents disagreed than agreed that the baseline section of the draft Just Transition Plan represents current circumstances accurately. Of those that answered this question, 51% either disagreed or strongly disagreed. Within this group of respondents, the majority of those who disagreed were individuals and local councils, followed by training providers, trade bodies or professional associations, and wider industry.

Conversely, approximately 38% of respondents agreed that the baseline section of the draft Just Transition Plan represents the current context of Grangemouth. The majority of these respondents were from the wider industry.

The remaining 13% of respondents recorded a neutral response.

Notably, feedback on this question from this consultation differed from responses to the community consultation report. Findings from the latter showed that most of the local Grangemouth community (72% of those consulted) agreed that the baseline within the draft plan accurately represents the current circumstances within Grangemouth.

2. How could current sections be improved and what else could be recorded in the Baseline section to more accurately capture Grangemouth’s current state?

Respondents provided a range of suggestions to enhance the Baseline section to more accurately reflect Grangemouth’s current state. The most frequent recommendation was to ensure that the data used for the baseline is up to date. Several respondents highlighted inaccuracies in the report regarding companies identified as ‘core’ parts of the cluster that have since closed, such as Versalis and Fujifilm, while other relevant companies are not accounted for in the overall employment and GVA figures. Additionally, those making this suggestion observed that the socioeconomic data used is over four years old, and the total supply chain expenditure is inaccurate, as it only considers six companies rather than the entire cluster.

As one respondent mentioned:

"The socio-economic data in the report is drawn from a settlement profile put together by Falkirk Council in November 2020, which is now 4+ years out of date and paints a misleading picture of the area in some cases. The latest data should be used where available." (Government agency or department)

Another frequent suggestion was to address the potential loss of jobs. Respondents stressed the importance of including information on potential risks and impacts on employment and the industry as a whole, along with more detailed workforce data. They also called for greater clarity on current and future roles, as well as skills requirements.

Some respondents suggested that the Baseline section should provide a broader and more comprehensive analysis of the factors contributing to Grangemouth’s current status. To achieve this, some recommended using data from a longer period than what is currently included. Some respondents proposed incorporating information on demand projections, supply chain mapping, and further clarity on the refinery’s future and its economic value.

As detailed by one respondent:

“The baseline section (presumably deliberately) captures certain limited circumstances, but does not seek to give anything near a complete enough picture, and fails absolutely to question the economic, social and political context in which “Grangemouth’s current state” is framed. Grangemouth and its problems go back decades and are the result of extractivist capitalism and governmental subservience to/facilitation of this. It’s a classic example of resource curse and corporate pillaging.” (Individual)

Other suggestions provided by respondents were more specific and therefore less frequent among respondents. Thematic analysis revealed that each of these specific suggestions relates to broader thematic areas of: environment, policy, community, industry, and general solutions to address inaccuracies – which came up frequently across the full breadth of responses. These specific suggestions have been mapped to these broader themes, and summarised below.

• Environment: Suggestions related to incorporating details on natural risks, brownfield land availability for different purposes, and interim measures for biodiversity and habitats. Respondents also recommended including information on current low-carbon initiatives, updated carbon dioxide emissions data for 2023, and broader environmental baseline data beyond emissions.
• Policy: included incorporating information on the regulatory and policy environment, mapping innovation projects and facilities, and mapping utility and waste service providers.
• Community: Respondents proposed clarifying details on governance and government collaboration and key obstacles to delivering the vision for community (particularly aspects highlighted in the previous community consultation). Furthermore, respondents mentioned the need to mention local issues such as housing and population decline, suicide rates, and child poverty. Additionally, some respondents suggested incorporating data on road, rail, and sea transport movements, as well as a wider survey of the surrounding area. Separately, the community consultation found that the local Grangemouth community feel that the following societal issues should be considered in the Baseline: the impact or plan for local businesses in the area, housing stock (including current condition and lack of suitable housing), the impact of pollution on health and wellbeing of residents, viability of community resources and green spaces, and the financial transparency on local authority spending. During this consultation, concerns were also raised around transport, such as the current repairs needed to roads and public transport development.
• Industry: A suggestion was made around providing financial information on companies within the cluster and offering a clearer explanation of why certain businesses are classified as ‘core operators.’ Respondents also recommended considering large local logistics companies, recognising support activities associated with key industries, and including a comparison of Grangemouth’s investment levels to those of similar industrial clusters. Furthermore, they highlighted the importance of mentioning the port as a key export gateway for industries beyond the Grangemouth cluster, serving businesses across Scotland.
• General suggestions to address inaccuracies: Respondents suggested addressing some errors they identified in the product flow figure and inconsistencies in the economic impact data, where two different GVA figures are presented—£895m in the text and £1.45bn in Figure 4. Additionally, the indirect GVA figure in Figure 4 was noted as being incorrect, with the suggestion that this should be £189m, bringing the total to £895m. Respondents also suggested that the socio-economic data in the ‘Key Facts’ section should be more closely aligned with the proposed indicators for the monitoring and evaluation framework.

Some respondents also noted positive aspects of the baseline section. These respondents felt that the baseline section is comprehensive and effectively captures all key quantitative and qualitative information required, including major measurable factors of the cluster. Other positive aspects highlighted include the inclusion of data on Grangemouth’s current footprint, and coverage of the perspectives and priorities of all relevant stakeholders. This was a key point raised by respondents to the community consultation as well.

3. Please explain the best approach to capturing additional aspects to the baseline, for example which data sources would you use, or who should be consulted to add to this information?

Respondents provided a wide range of suggestions for capturing additional aspects to enhance the baseline. Notably, these suggestions were varied across respondents, and there was no clear agreement for one type of suggestion provided.

Among the more commonly cited suggestions was the need for a collaborative approach between academia, industry, and Government to develop a comprehensive and accurate baseline. One respondent also highlighted the importance of this collaboration for future mapping, suggesting that it should involve industrial operators, local industries, and academic institutions. Respondents suggested a variety of stakeholders that they felt should be consulted. In particular, some highlighted the need to engage with labour unions, such as Unite the Union and GMB, to discuss the immediate situation of workers facing job losses. Other relevant stakeholders include academics, the Grangemouth Future Industry Board (GFIB), Falkirk Council, local authorities responsible for environmental monitoring, industrial operators within the cluster, local haulage and freight operating companies, chemical industry representatives, waste management companies specialising in hazardous materials, and environmental consultants with expertise in the chemical sector.

Respondents also stressed the importance of using a diverse range of data sources, including government, industry, sector-specific, and independent organisations. Suggested sources included data from the Just Transition Commission and baseline data from Project Willow, as well as information from organisations such as Scottish Enterprise, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA), the Office for National Statistics (ONS), Skills Development Scotland, and OPITO’s labour market intelligence tool for employment and skills data. Additionally, respondents proposed incorporating reports on skills needs and demands in the Grangemouth area, industry-specific reports from chemical and pharmaceutical associations, environmental impact assessments from local chemical plants, and academic research on hazardous waste management in Scotland. As one consultation respondent described:

“A mix of government, industry, sector specific and independent sources would provide the additional data for the baseline. For example, Office for National Statistics, Skills Development Scotland, UK and Scot Gov Energy reports, Forth Valley Chamber of Commerce, Trade Union reports, public consultations and findings.

There have been a number of reports carried out in relation to skills needs and demands in the Grangemouth area as part of the Forth Green Freeport, Forth Valley Skills Plan and also a specific report carried out by Optimat on behalf of SDS on Grangemouth Skills Needs.” (Training provider)

A few respondents also identified specific data that should be incorporated into the baseline, including information on the limitations of renewable energy, employment records, estimations of the proportion of emissions reductions resulting from the transition versus those due to business closures, and details on brownfield land availability. One respondent also suggested several focus areas for inclusion in the baseline, such as mapping current hazardous waste streams within the Grangemouth complex, identifying potential synergies between industries for waste treatment, assessing the capacity and technology of existing hazardous waste treatment facilities, and exploring innovative technologies for hazardous waste reduction and treatment.

Some respondents also provided more general suggestions. For instance, one respondent highlighted the potential to position efficient hazardous waste management as a unique selling point for the Grangemouth complex, potentially attracting new businesses and investment. Another respondent recommended expanding the ‘Skills’ section of the report to include information on current and future roles, as well as planned and projected skills requirements.

4. To what extent do you agree that Grangemouth’s future should be part of the Net Zero economy?

A majority of respondents who engaged with this question either agreed or strongly agreed (79%) that Grangemouth’s future should form part of the Net Zero economy. Within this group, the majority of those who agreed were from the wider industry or belonged to a trade body or professional organisations, followed by non-profits, and local councils. Approximately 16% either disagreed or strongly disagreed with the statement, while around 5% were neutral. All of those who disagreed or were neutral were individuals (see Figure 2)

This overall agreement with net zero objectives is reflected in the Grangemouth community consultation as well, with more than 80% of people either agreeing or strongly agreeing that Grangemouth’s future should be part of the NetZero economy.

Respondents of this consultation who agreed or strongly agreed, highlighted positive aspects of making Grangemouth part of the Net Zero transition and provided recommendations to strengthen the plan. The most frequent view was that the transition to Net Zero presents a significant opportunity to revitalise the local economy. However, some respondents emphasised that for this plan to succeed, the initial focus should be on stabilising Grangemouth’s industry before transitioning, ensuring that existing businesses can adapt effectively. In line with these views, the next most common view was that, if properly managed, the transition could play a major role in achieving Scotland’s 2045 Net Zero goals, benefiting both the local community and the wider climate agenda. As one respondent noted:

"Grangemouth is a town that represents economic importance in Scotland. It’s strategic location, industrial capacity, and historical significance make it a vital part of Scotland's landscape. The area has had many years of success across the energy industry, and – if a transition is properly managed – could play a major role in achieving Scotland’s 2045 Net Zero aspirations and contributing to a fairer and healthier economy." (Local council)

Another key perspective raised by respondents who agreed with the statement was that Grangemouth’s workforce possesses vital skills required for the Net Zero economy. One respondent stated:

"The Grangemouth industrial cluster has the location, infrastructure, skills, ecosystem and feedstock potential that uniquely positions it as a destination for sustainable industrial technology innovation, scale-up and commercialisation." (Local council)

Suggestions for strengthening the plan included maintaining positive alignment with Green Industrial Energy, implementing a joint government and industry approach, continuing investment and support for Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technology to ensure a successful transition, directly involving affected workers in the Net Zero transition planning to help safeguard their livelihoods, and accelerating the transition process to remain competitive internationally.

Among those who were neutral, disagreed, or strongly disagreed, key views centred around potential challenges. One respondent expressed concern that the people of Grangemouth could be negatively affected by the transition. Another raised doubts about the reliability of renewable energy, while another argued that the government should not collaborate with the current owners of the refinery, as they are perceived as the primary polluters.

Concerns raised by Grangemouth’s community on speed of Net zero journey

The community consultation found that those within the local Grangemouth community with personal knowledge and understanding were concerned by the speed and impact on the local community, Industry, and economy in moving to net zero.

5. To what extent do you agree that the community - including residents and industry partners - are included on the journey to Net Zero at Grangemouth?

Respondents who engaged with this question were equally divided between those who agreed or strongly agreed (42%) and those who disagreed or strongly disagreed (approximately 42%) that the community, including residents and industry partners, is being included in the journey to Net Zero at Grangemouth. The remaining 16% of respondents were ‘neutral’ on the subject. Some respondents indicated that these stakeholders are largely engaged, while others felt that engagement remains limited and should be expanded.

Agreement was clearest among the wider industry, representing 25% of those agreeing with this statement, while the remaining 75% was evenly split between non-profits or charities, local councils, trade bodies or professional associations, training providers, and Government agencies or departments. Of those who disagreed or strongly disagreed, the respondent pool was equally divided among individuals, non-profits or charities, local councils, and trade unions.

Notably, there was agreement among Grangemouth community members on this subject, with the consultation finding that a majority (63% of people) either agreed or strongly agreed that the community (including residents, workforce, and Industry) should be part of the journey to NetZero while 14% remained unsure.

Aside from the above, respondents also provided substantive views on engaging various stakeholders on the journey to net zero. The most commonly raised view was the need to broaden stakeholder engagement beyond industry partners and residents of Grangemouth to include other key organisations essential to the Net Zero transition, such as Forth Valley College and SEPA. Several respondents also highlighted the importance of involving trade unions to support workers through the transition process. As highlighted by one respondent:

"The journey to Net Zero should include residents and industry but this also requires other stakeholders who can support the successful transition such as the local authority, Forth Valley College, SDS, SEPA etc. A collaborative and partnership approach with clear milestones and targets will support the Net Zero journey. In addition, a strong communication/engagement programme with consistent messaging will support the inclusion of stakeholders." (Training provider)

The next most frequent view was the need for more effective communication strategies tailored to diverse stakeholders, ensuring they remain informed and fully understand the implications of the Net Zero transition. Given the complexity of the transition, some respondents noted that despite existing communication efforts, the message is not always effectively retained. Suggestions included:

• Interactive engagement methods for community consultation and education.
• Feedback channels to identify why certain messages are not resonating with the community.
• Clearer and more accessible explanations of Net Zero goals and their local impact.

As mentioned by one respondent:

"Keeping local residents up-to-date, well informed, and involved with respect to plans and progress will be a vital part of this journey to ensure buy-in and collaborative working." (Non-profit or charity)

Next, respondents outlined the need for more inclusive engagement with communities likely to be disproportionately affected by the transition, ensuring they have fair representation in the process. Some respondents also pointed to a disconnect between industry and workers, evidenced by worker layoffs and rising unemployment. These respondents noted that workers feel excluded from decision-making regarding the transition.

A few respondents highlighted different challenges related to the engagement of community residents and industry partners, with each of these concerns raised by only one respondent. Regarding resident engagement, concerns were raised about the potential risk of population decline, with some fearing an exodus from Grangemouth. Additionally, they noted a level of scepticism regarding the motives behind the transition, with some questioning whether the agenda genuinely prioritises local interests. Perceived short-term financial concerns were also mentioned, as immediate economic pressures taking precedence over long-term environmental goals for many residents. Some respondents further cautioned that industry plans may not always align with broader Net Zero strategies set by the Government and agreed with the community; and noted that industry partners may also lack motivation to engage transparently with stakeholders, leading to concerns about limited communication.

Findings of the community consultation are broadly aligned with these views. The community consultation found that there is limited knowledge of the Just Transition Programme among the community, resulting in many refusing to even consider the impact or opportunity that the Just Transition Plan will bring. Concerns were raised throughout the community consultation about the information shared through news and media channels as being confusing and heavily biased. Recommendations were made for better alignment of the ambitions of the Just Transition Plan and the aspirations of the community, including a clear plan with timelines and outcomes, and an effective and ongoing communication channel with the community.

Other suggestions proposed by respondents included guaranteeing that engagement methods are used to ensure the resulting benefits of the transition are equally distributed across stakeholders, promoting continued investment and economic development that supports employment, and establishing alignment between the public and private sectors’ objectives to ensure a smoother and more coordinated transition for Grangemouth. One respondent felt that the transition should be industry-led, with government and public sector support provided as needed. In contrast, another respondent expressed concerns that industry partners might feel pressured to comply with Net Zero policies and could attempt to bypass them, for example by offshoring emissions through the importation of refined products instead of committing to on-site reductions.

6. To what extent do you agree that there is a need to improve the quality of life for Grangemouth residents?

The majority of respondents who answered this question (84%) either agreed or strongly agreed that there is a need to improve the quality of life for residents in Grangemouth. A small proportion (5%) of respondents disagreed, while none strongly disagreed (see Figure 4).

Among those who agreed or strongly agreed, respondents were primarily individuals, wider industry, trade bodies or professional associations. The two neutral responses were evenly split between individuals and non-profits or charities, while the one respondent who disagreed represented a local council.

The findings of the community consultation were also aligned with this, with an overwhelming majority (95%) either agreeing or strongly agreeing with the need to improve the quality of life for the Grangemouth communities.

As one respondent stated:

"There are key social constraints within the town of Grangemouth such as declining population, poor health outcomes, employability needs and a perceived disconnect between the local community and the economic benefits historically generated by the Grangemouth industrial cluster. Net zero offers the potential for significant and sustainable economic growth for a community which has suffered the ill-effects of large-scale fossil fuel based industrial processes, while not reaping the financial benefits of the wealth flowing through the area." (Local council)

Respondents primarily noted that there was a need to promote continued investment and economic development that supports employment, with the aim of improving the residents’ quality of life. Respondents also emphasised the importance of addressing local inequalities and ensuring local communities benefit directly from the energy transition.