Grangemouth - draft Just Transition Plan: consultation analysis

Part 3a and 3b: Action Plan

The Action Plan chapter of the Just Transition Plan for the Grangemouth Industrial Cluster outlines the proposed actions to deliver the 2045 Vision. It serves as the core of the Plan, detailing the key focus areas and activities intended to be undertaken by the Grangemouth Future Industry Board. In Part 3 of the consultation document, the Scottish Government asked for the public’s views on 12 questions related to the Action Plan. Respondents provided views on which actions they feel should be prioritised to achieve the 2045 Vision, the importance of lifelong skills development, and how public and private sectors can address critical skills gaps. They also responded on the role of government in enabling the transition, the effectiveness of the Action Plan, potential barriers to implementation, and the responsibilities of key partners in delivering the proposed actions. This section summarises the thematic analysis of these responses, structured according to the specific questions asked.

16. What should be the priority actions for the Scottish Government to achieve Grangemouth’s 2045 Vision?

Respondents to this question provided a wide range of suggestions around what the priority actions should be for the Scottish Government to achieve Grangemouth’s 2045 Vision.

Most commonly, respondents emphasised the importance of the Scottish and UK Governments to align priorities and objectives to ensure streamlined decision-making and good progress in a timely manner. This was proposed by trade bodies and the wider industry. As mentioned by one respondent:

“Government policy in both Holyrood and Westminster needs to be aligned to ensure that the best possible market conditions are presented to support the business case. These policies require limited legislation, can be delivered at no cost to the taxpayer and can be implemented quickly in both parliaments, with the full support of industry and consumers.” (Trade body or professional association)

The second most frequently mentioned priority action centred on supporting workforce development. One respondent suggested establishing a Grangemouth Industrial Skills initiative in partnership with colleges, universities, and standards bodies to provide qualifications and training tailored to the needs of the transitioning economy. Another respondent emphasised the importance of preserving existing skills and employment to facilitate training and mentoring for the future workforce while allowing time for potential new industries to establish a local presence. With the same frequency, another theme raised by some respondents emphasised another priority action to be the creation and maintenance of funding streams for sustainable upgrades and to deliver the outcome of the Vision.

Charities and non-profit respondents proposed priority actions focused on worker protection, community involvement, and strategic oversight. Key actions included safeguarding the livelihoods of workers affected by job losses, actively involving the existing workforce, local community, and trade unions in the transition, suspending public funding to Petroineos, incorporating stakeholder feedback from this consultation in the plan, providing clear milestones and deliverables, and ensuring this project is integrated within a broader Scottish Government Energy Strategy.

A few respondents also mentioned establishing flexible regulations encouraging innovation and safety as a priority action. One respondent proposed a risk-based regulatory approach to foster a ‘create and make’ environment, ensuring regulators are well-resourced to support the transition and attract investment. Additionally, the importance of stable, long-term carbon policies to address carbon leakage and allocate revenue for industrial decarbonisation was also stressed.

The remaining priority actions were each proposed by a single organisation or individual and have been grouped by respondent type to highlight the specific focus areas of each group. Government agencies and departments’ respondents indicated that the priority actions should revolve around strategic alignment and support for industry transition. The priority actions identified include: ensuring the Action Plan evolves over time through continuous monitoring and evaluation; requiring public sector partners to provide targeted support to help businesses meet the plan’s conditions; recognising employers as key contributors to the skills offer, alongside individuals and employees; and strengthening alignment with UK-wide initiatives while maintaining coherence with local and regional strategies.

Trade bodies and professional associations proposed priority actions focused on bioenergy expansion, feedstock supply, and industrial competitiveness. Key actions included extending the Scottish Government’s bioenergy policy to cover both existing and new buildings, prioritising the collection of additional materials to secure the necessary feedstock base for Grangemouth’s transition to a biofuel plant, improving access to competitively priced energy by addressing the cost disparity between the UK and key competitor nations, and promoting raw material diversification. This includes simplifying and enhancing net-zero transition funding to make low-carbon hydrogen, captured and recycled CO₂, and bio-based alternatives more cost-effective, alongside policy changes to incentivise the use of alternative feedstocks such as waste, carbon, and hydrogen within the economy.

Respondents from the wider industry focused their recommendations on ensuring a stable foundation for industrial transition. One priority action was to stabilise the Grangemouth industrial base before proceeding with further changes. Other key actions included supporting the development of local supply chains, providing long-term government incentives for industry investment, and ensuring alignment across support mechanisms and incentives. Respondents also highlighted the importance of maximising opportunities related to green hydrogen, developing an industry-led investment strategy aligned with net-zero targets, prioritising the delivery of Project Willow in collaboration with sector companies, and facilitating the transition to sustainable manufacturing.

Additional priority actions were also suggested. One individual respondent emphasised the need to prioritise job retention for Grangemouth residents while working towards the green energy targets set for 2045. A local council respondent suggested promoting projects aimed at improving the community environment. A training provider respondent recommended focusing and prioritising efforts across short, medium, and long-term goals.

Grangemouth’s community asked for more engagement on wider community-oriented issues

The Community consultation report noted that Grangemouth community members felt alienated from engagement on the action plan due to the focus on learning and opportunity for school leavers and apprenticeships. In this regard many community respondents felt that the plan needs to consider a broader range of people such as the older population, who value transparency of plans around community and green spaces over information about industrial workforce.

17(a). Please prioritise each action, with 1 as the most urgent and 23 as the least urgent.

Respondents assigned numbers to the priority actions based on urgency. The scale provided ranges from 1 to 23, where “1" signifies the highest urgency and "23" the lowest. For this analysis, the numbers allocated to each priority action were examined and grouped into ranges to separate out levels of urgency.

This scale was categorised as follows: responses in the 1-8 range were deemed "urgent" or “high priority”, necessitating immediate attention, while those in the 9-15 range were classified as "Important", representing actions that should be addressed soon but were less critical. Responses in the 16-23 range were designated as "least urgent".

Following the classification, the actions have been reported as per the classification in which they were rated most frequently; with specific outliers highlighted separately (e.g., where a few priority actions were equally rated across all the classifications).

Following this approach, respondents classified the following priority actions as urgent:

• Develop an industry-led technical and commercial investment strategy for the Grangemouth Industrial Cluster, aligned to Scottish and UK net zero targets, that attracts investment focused on economic, social and environmental benefits.
• Create alignment and coordinated action between the UK Government, Scottish Government and local authorities on policy, strategy and funding for the Grangemouth Industrial Cluster.
• Support and fund the delivery of Project Willow as a critical early part of the longer-term industrial cluster strategy, engaging and involving companies across the cluster.
• Leverage the funding available until March 2025 through the UK Government Regulators’ Pioneer Fund to trial novel approaches to regulation with the aim of supporting innovation of industrial clusters to net zero whilst continuing to protect people and the environment.
• Create a Grangemouth Industrial Skills offer in partnership with colleges, universities and standards bodies to deliver qualifications and training tailored to the needs of the transitioning economy.
• Secure UK Government and Scottish Government funding for Project Willow and other early-stage scoping studies to underpin the long-term Grangemouth Industrial Cluster Strategy.
• Develop and proactively promote a comprehensive and attractive investment proposition for the Grangemouth Industrial Cluster to attract private sector investment.
• Maximise the value of existing government funding e.g., Green Freeport, Falkirk and Grangemouth Growth Deal, Stirling and Clackmannanshire City Region Deal, to ensure that the cluster is given the required attention.

The following are priority actions classified by respondents as important, though moderate priority:

• Pursue additional funding routes to support a change in regulatory approach to support innovation and the Just Transition to net zero GHG emissions.
• Improve the coordination of initiatives across the Forth Valley, to ensure that the Grangemouth industrial cluster is given appropriate attention, as well as enhancing surrounding communities’ access to opportunities.
• Significantly increase the visibility, pace and ambition of the Greener Grangemouth Programme with a clear plan of realistic actions that deliver positive impact, build confidence and create momentum.
• Fund a recognised Community Engagement and Participation Manager, who will act as the local community champion, and engage with communities, local leaders and influencers to raise awareness and empower the community.
• Establish a supplier development programme backed by UK and Scottish governments and their agencies to build the capacity of SMEs to participate in the green economy.

Low priority actions, according to respondents, are:

• Develop a series of Just Transition conditionalities, to be applied to public funding for the Grangemouth industrial cluster.
• Define and deliver a focused, time-bound study to develop a plan to improve public transport links, connectivity and accessibility around the Grangemouth Industrial Cluster.
• Define and establish best practice community engagement guidelines for partners in the Cluster Strategy, to deliver a consistent approach to community empowerment in decision-making.
• Explore the development of a local Procurement Framework that encourages and incentivises operating companies to procure goods and services from local companies, working to enhance community wealth building.
• Create an annual Grangemouth Industrial Decarbonisation Expo held in Forth Valley, bringing together local, national and international companies to share knowledge, technologies and solutions.
• Harness the coordinated support of trade bodies and other supply chain support organisations by creating a specific campaign to promote the cluster strategy and opportunities at Grangemouth.
• In line with the Grangemouth Industrial Cluster Strategy, develop a distinctive brand identity and narrative to position the cluster with key audiences and stakeholders.
• Develop and resource the delivery of a communication and marketing programme to promote the cluster – its ambition, goals, commercial opportunities, impact and benefits.

An equal number of respondents rated the following action as either moderate or low priority:

• Develop a place-based Just Transition Deal.

Similarly, the following action received an equal distribution of responses across high, moderate, and low priority:

• Establish a Grangemouth Regulatory Hub to support a Just Transition to net zero in 2024.

17(b). Please say how you would rate each action - an immediate/urgent action or an action to be deployed at a later date.

Some respondents categorised the 23 Priority Actions as requiring either “Immediate or urgent action” or as an “Action to be implemented at a later date.”

The majority of respondents who answered this question classified the following priority actions as requiring immediate action:

• Develop an industry-led technical and commercial investment strategy for the Grangemouth Industrial Cluster, aligned to Scottish and UK net zero targets, that attracts investment focused on economic, social and environmental benefits.
• Create alignment and coordinated action between the UK Government, Scottish Government and local authorities on policy, strategy and funding for the Grangemouth Industrial Cluster.
• Support and fund the delivery of Project Willow as a critical early part of the longer-term industrial cluster strategy, engaging and involving companies across the cluster.
• Leverage the funding available until March 2025 through the UK Government Regulators’ Pioneer Fund to trial novel approaches to regulation with the aim of supporting innovation of industrial cluster to net zero whilst continuing to protect people and the environment.
• Create a Grangemouth Industrial Skills offer in partnership with colleges, universities and standards bodies to deliver qualifications and training tailored to the needs of the transitioning economy.
• Secure UK Government and Scottish Government funding for Project Willow and other early-stage scoping studies to underpin the long-term Grangemouth Industrial Cluster Strategy.
• Develop and proactively promote a comprehensive and attractive investment proposition for the Grangemouth Industrial Cluster to attract private sector investment.
• Maximise the value of existing government funding, e.g., Green Freeport, Falkirk and Grangemouth Growth Deal, Stirling and Clackmannanshire City Region Deal, to ensure that the cluster is given the required attention.
• Significantly increase the visibility, pace and ambition of the Greener Grangemouth Programme with a clear plan of realistic actions that deliver positive impact, build confidence and create momentum.
• Fund a recognised Community Engagement and Participation Manager, who will act as the local community champion, engage with communities, local leaders and influencers to raise awareness and empower the community.
• Harness the coordinated support of trade bodies and other supply chain support organisations by creating a specific campaign to promote the cluster strategy and opportunities at Grangemouth.
• In line with the Grangemouth Industrial Cluster Strategy, develop a distinctive brand identity and narrative to position the cluster with key audiences and stakeholders.
• Develop and resource the delivery of a communication and marketing programme to promote the cluster – its ambition, goals, commercial opportunities, impact and benefits.

Conversely, the following priority actions were identified by respondents as those that can be implemented at a later date, as they do not require urgent attention:

• Establish a Grangemouth Regulatory Hub to support a Just Transition to net zero in 2024.
• Pursue additional funding routes to support a change in regulatory approach to support innovation and the Just Transition to net zero GHG emissions.
• Develop a series of Just Transition conditionalities, to be applied to public funding for the Grangemouth industrial cluster.
• Improve the coordination of initiatives across the Forth Valley, to ensure that the Grangemouth industrial cluster is given appropriate attention, as well as enhancing surrounding communities’ access to opportunities.
• Define and deliver a focused, time-bound study to develop a plan to improve public transport links, connectivity and accessibility around the Grangemouth Industrial Cluster.
• Develop a place-based Just Transition Deal.
• Define and establish best practice community engagement guidelines for partners in the Cluster Strategy, to deliver a consistent approach to community empowerment in decision-making.
• Explore the development of a local Procurement Framework that encourages and incentivises operating companies to procure goods and services from local companies, working to enhance community wealth building.
• Establish a supplier development programme backed by UK and Scottish governments and their agencies to build the capacity of SMEs to participate in the green economy.
• Create an annual Grangemouth Industrial Decarbonisation Expo held in Forth Valley, bringing together local, national and international companies to share knowledge, technologies and solutions.

18. Do you agree that an end-to-end approach is required to lifelong skills development at Grangemouth starting at schools and continuing throughout training and career changes?

There was overwhelming agreement from respondents who answered this question. All but one respondent agreed that a comprehensive, end-to-end approach is essential for lifelong skills development in Grangemouth, starting in schools and continuing through training and career transitions.

This was aligned with the Grangemouth community members, with 96% of those consulted as part of the community consultation report, either agreeing or strongly agreeing with the need for an end-to-end approach to skills development. Community respondents felt that while school would be a good place to start, these development opportunities should not only be available to young people, but they would rather it was available to everyone in the community who wants/needs it and not restricted to just jobs for Industry. It was recognised that, at present, there are opportunities to engage with learning/training provision through various organisations such as Skills Development Scotland (SDS), and the Employment Training Unit (ETU).

19. How can the public and private sector ensure they fill critical skills gaps and give people new opportunities to ensure an effective, well supported transition?

Respondents offered suggestions for the public and private sectors to address critical skill gaps and create new opportunities, ensuring an effective and well-supported transition.

Most commonly, respondents suggested the need for a coordinated approach to skills development and training across stakeholders, within Scotland and across the devolved nations. Some respondents mentioned this could be done by ensuring that funding and qualification structures remain consistent to facilitate mobility across the UK. Others suggested that collaboration could also be achieved through the sharing of information, expertise, intelligence and strong partnership working. In line with this, some respondents also proposed establishing skills partnerships between industry, academic institutions, educational providers, governments and trade unions. This suggestion was also shared by Grangemouth community members, with community respondents suggesting the development of more meaningful partnerships that can provide new opportunities. According to one respondent:

By creating a clear and agreed (between all the main parties) narrative (a mission statement) for general public consumption that recognises where we are now and where we aim to be by 2045. The narrative needs to identify the opportunities and how to go about gaining the skills that will allow the opportunities to be realised. Establish milestones as drivers for success. (Local council)

In further alignment with this theme, another respondent also wrote:

"Uniform qualifications would make it easier for students to move between different parts of the UK, for higher education purposes or to gain employment. This mobility is essential for personal and professional growth, and for reducing skills shortages in key industrial hubs." (Non profit or charity)

Some respondents, including community members, stressed the need for apprenticeships to be properly funded and supported. One respondent also highlighted the importance of providing funding for skills courses alongside apprenticeships. A few respondents emphasised that investment in skills development should be sustainable over time and recognised as a long-term commitment. However, one respondent noted that in the short term, securing immediate investment is crucial to ensuring transitions align with the overall vision. As one respondent pointed out:

“Firstly, it is critical that apprenticeships are funded adequately to support the energy industry. Where support is required with the development of apprenticeship programs, both public and private sectors should look to offer assistance.” (Non-profit or charity)

The next most frequently raised suggestion was the need to ensure that skills development aligns with both current and future industry demands. Respondents proposed several strategies to achieve this, including recognising the evolving needs of the workforce and outsourced services, developing flexible training programmes that adapt to changing resource requirements, and investing in vocational education tailored to industry needs. Curriculum changes were also proposed to keep education relevant to shifting industry demands, alongside the provision of flexible training options to accommodate diverse learning requirements. Other suggestions included establishing public-private partnerships to support apprenticeships and internships, offering scholarships and grants for training in high-demand skills, and leveraging skills centres to coordinate training efforts across multiple organisations. Respondents also emphasised the importance of engaging educational institutions to align curricula with industry requirements, launching awareness campaigns to promote career pathways and emerging opportunities, and using technology to ensure education, skills, and training remain aligned with future workforce needs. As stated by one respondent:

“[…] industry and educators need to work together to highlight the opportunities, and engage students from an early age (primary school) in understanding these opportunities. There is a major question around why so many people are unemployed in the region despite the industry located there. Curriculum changes are also key, along with recognition of the importance of apprenticeships and practical college training courses.” (Trade body/professional association)

Respondents highlighted other key actions for both the private and public sectors to support skills development and workforce transition. The private sector was encouraged to collaborate with educational institutions to develop comprehensive education programmes that guide students from initial learning to employment. Additionally, one respondent suggested that the energy industry should actively inform students about its workings and career pathways to attract future talent. Some respondents emphasised the need for employers to cover the cost of on-the-job training and retraining to ensure accessibility. Furthermore, there was a call for greater clarity on the long-term future of Grangemouth so that employers can plan workforce development effectively. For the public sector, respondents suggested subsidising workers in transition who are not in regular employment to provide financial stability during periods of change. There was also a recommendation to support the establishment of a national training campus dedicated to energy network skills, which would serve as a hub for workforce development in the sector. Beyond these sector-specific recommendations, respondents highlighted the need for a skills audit at all major high-carbon sites to assess workforce capabilities beyond the current Skills Passport framework.

Separately, Grangemouth community members commonly highlighted the need for the community to be informed, engaged and included in the process beyond the initial changes.

20. What more can be done to support the development of sustainable and high-quality local job opportunities across the Grangemouth cluster and wider supply chain?

Respondents provided suggestions centred on key areas of interest to further support the development of sustainable and high-quality local job opportunities across the Grangemouth cluster and wider supply chain.

Most commonly, respondents highlighted the importance of attracting new businesses to Grangemouth, with some caveating that these should be sustainable businesses focused on green jobs. Respondents provided several suggestions to accomplish this, including promoting inclusive entrepreneurship, developing circular economy solutions by optimising shared resources, encouraging innovation hubs using different funding avenues for local startups and SMEs to locate in Grangemouth, developing geographical areas to attract complementary businesses, and investing in R&D. Some respondents also emphasised that businesses can be attracted by leveraging Scotland's excess supply of green energy that could power a range of energy-intense industries. Some respondents also highlighted the need for a better understanding of the specific needs, resource management models and opportunities to key businesses in Grangemouth and its surrounding area, as this could help identify additional growth and employment opportunities. As pointed out by one respondent:

"A better understanding of the specific needs and opportunities specific to key businesses in Grangemouth and its surrounding area may help identify additional growth and employment opportunities." (Government agency or department)

The second most commonly mentioned theme was the need to foster collaboration between industry, government, civil society, and educational institutions to develop innovative solutions for local job creation. Respondents suggested that industry and supply chains could be planned and developed simultaneously in an integrated manner, with a shared Vision for Grangemouth supported by a range of stakeholders. Relatedly, skills and training needs were another theme of focus for some respondents. They suggested promoting skills diversification and workforce transition, creating flexible apprenticeships to accommodate various employment models, and developing specialised training for emerging industries. Some also emphasised the need to provide adequate support to local businesses, particularly SMEs, through financial incentives, business development programmes, and improved market access to foster local job creation and retention.

As one respondent noted:

These partnerships can leverage resources and expertise to address local economic challenges. (Non profit or charity)

Some respondents also focused on the need to enhance infrastructure and improve local services to sustain jobs and attract businesses to Grangemouth. Suggested actions included investing in public transport links to improve workforce mobility, expanding digital infrastructure, and supporting future-focused energy projects. As noted by one consultation participant:

“Enhance Infrastructure: investing in sustainable infrastructure such as public transportation, renewable energy generation, and digital connectivity can attract businesses and create jobs while improving the quality of life for residents.” (Non profit or charity)

A few respondents highlighted the need for clear government commitments to Grangemouth projects to achieve the development of local jobs and the need for inclusive policies to help marginalised groups access job opportunities. A few respondents also noted that the Action Plan includes a comprehensive set of intended measures and has the potential to develop a strong, industry-led hub that will generate local employment.

21. How can we best support industry partners in the Grangemouth cluster to transition to net zero?

Respondents expressed a range of views on actions the Scottish Government could take to effectively support industry partners in the Grangemouth cluster as they transition to net zero.

Most commonly, respondents highlighted the importance of strong financial support and policy certainty in enabling industry partners to make informed business decisions and foster collaboration. Financial incentives could encourage industries to invest in low-carbon technologies. Additionally, policy support could be provided through regulatory stability and assistance in navigating any legislative challenges. As one respondent noted:

“[…] policy stability is important to help incentivise investment in decarbonisation, providing predictability of outcomes. Similarly, regulation can either enable or stifle growth. The Scottish Government can help businesses understand any new regulations as well as providing a conduit for understanding and addressing any regulatory challenges. Financial incentives can be important levers to help industries invest in low-carbon technologies and processes. […]” (Government agency or department)

Some respondents suggested that the Scottish Government should provide support to industry partners in relation to the skills and training of Grangemouth’s residents and employees. These respondents emphasised how investment in workforce development could be structured to better capitalise on opportunities arising from the transition to net zero. They highlighted that employers would require support from the Scottish Government to facilitate the upskilling and reskilling of the local workforce. This could include initiatives such as apprenticeships aimed at equipping workers with the skills needed for key transition sectors, including energy, construction, manufacturing, the rural economy, and transport. Another suggestion, put forward by a respondent, was to strengthen regional connections through collaborative skills projects. For example, establishing a forum to share information, progress updates, best practices, and the skills-related aspects of regional initiatives. As one respondent noted:

“Developing the skills of the current and future workforce is essential to accelerate decarbonisation efforts in existing industries as well as to prepare the workforce for new roles in sustainable, low carbon industries.” (Government agency or department)

The following specific suggestions were each mentioned by one respondent, encouraging the Scottish Government to adopt these recommendations to foster an environment that supports industry partners in their transition to net zero:

• Implement a systematic approach to analysing and interpreting industry data to inform decision making, improve performance and achieve strategic objectives.
• Facilitate knowledge sharing and collaborative innovation.
• Establish a cluster management organisation to provide additional resources and expertise to support businesses.
• Continue with the plans for the establishment of a Grangemouth Regulatory Hub.
• Develop shared infrastructure for low-carbon electricity and steam generation.
• Support innovation and R&D.
• Provide incentives for green technology adoption.
• Optimise nitrogen production and distribution networks.
• Implement accessible advanced waste treatment.
• Offer tailored guidance on emissions reduction strategies.
• Streamline permitting processes for sustainable projects.
• Encourage partnerships with research institutions.
• Promote circular economy initiatives within the cluster.
• Ensure availability of net zero stocks.

22. Does the Action Plan effectively address the actions required to achieve a Just Transition for Grangemouth?

A majority of respondents (82%) who answered this question felt that the Action Plan does not effectively address the measures needed to achieve a Just Transition for Grangemouth, suggesting that these actions need to be revised. Respondents who disagreed spanned all subgroups, but primarily included individuals, wider industry, and local council respondents.

Notably, responses from the community consultation contrast with this finding. The community consultation report showed that more than half (54%) of respondents felt the Action Plan could be effective, while 12% disagreed and 34% noted they did not know enough from the proposal to definitively answer one way or the other.

23. If you replied no to Question 22, what more could be done?

Respondents provided several suggestions to strengthen the Action Plan so that it more effectively addresses the actions required to achieve a Just Transition for Grangemouth.

Most commonly, respondents highlighted the need for greater clarity regarding which organisations or agencies will be responsible for delivering each action, as well as for securing and managing funding, including any associated funding streams. This suggestion was shared by Grangemouth community members, following the community consultation. Relatedly, respondents also called for more detail on the specific role of the Grangemouth Future Industry Board (GFIB), particularly in relation to the implementation and monitoring of the Action Plan, and how it intends to balance immediate needs with longer-term objectives. As one respondent indicated:

"In general, the Action Plan is felt to require further detail on which agency is responsible for each action, and where funding is mentioned – it would help to clarify the source and, again, responsible agency." (Local council)

More clarity sought by Grangemouth’s community on the Action Plan and its governance

Grangemouth community members called for more clarity around the action plan and its governance. The community consultation report noted that many community members felt that the Action Plan could be made more concise with a focus on clarifying key aspects, such as who was leading the proposed actions, how and when they would be done, and exactly what the impact was. The consultation also reflected a lack of knowledge among community, of the GFIB and its role prior to the consultation process.

Some respondents emphasised the importance of setting out clear timelines and the sequencing of actions. For example, they suggested that providing an indication of when actions will be delivered would help to support understanding of the theory of change and how short-term activities will contribute to medium- and long-term outcomes. In relation to this, one respondent expressed concern that relevant actions are being deferred and that the Action Plan is currently focused only on longer-term ambitions, with limited attention given to delivering short-term results.

Relatedly, some respondents also highlighted the importance of ensuring the Action Plan addresses immediate unemployment challenges. One respondent noted that the plan is meant to be completed in 20 years, so jobs may not be available immediately, underscoring the need for credible measures that clearly demonstrate what jobs will be created and when they will become available. Another respondent suggested that the Scottish Government should work with trade unions to develop measures to address redundancies. It was also noted that redundancies caused significant material hardship and that most people see this issue as having been largely overlooked in the current version of the Action Plan.

In terms of additional actions to be included in the plan, some respondents highlighted the need to include specific short-term actions to address the immediate challenges faced by the industries currently operating in Grangemouth, such as high energy costs, global competition, regulatory pressures, and infrastructure requirements. Respondents called for actions to manage the immediate closure of the refinery and to develop short-term solutions, noting that while future-focused projects like Project Willow are welcome, they offer no immediate assistance for the refinery’s current situation. One respondent stressed that without swift, short-term interventions and closer collaboration with Petroineos, there is a serious risk of losing vital skills and undermining the success of longer-term transition efforts. Another respondent highlighted the urgent need for regulatory and policy reforms to create a level playing field for Grangemouth’s industries. They stated that high energy and carbon costs, combined with more complex bureaucracy than that faced by international competitors, threaten the survival of businesses essential for supporting the area’s future transition.

A few respondents offered additional suggestions to help ensure the actions in the Action Plan can effectively support a Just Transition for Grangemouth. These included implementing regular reviews and updates to keep the plan relevant and effective throughout the transition, while also ensuring it remains flexible and adaptable to unforeseen challenges. Respondents suggested that the plan should present a stronger business case for why industry should invest in Grangemouth’s transition, and that it should include objectives that are Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant and Time-bound (SMART).

Further suggestions included incorporating climate resilience into the Community and Place elements of the plan, particularly given the local challenges such as flood risk. Respondents also called for more information on ongoing risks to the supply chain, clarification on whether certain businesses, such as Calachem, have been fully considered, and further details on identified skills shortages. In addition, there was a request for greater clarity on the role of the community engagement and participation manager.

A few respondents also provided action-specific suggestions as detailed in the following list:

• Action 1: Clarify which organisation will lead and fund this action, and whether it will follow a partnership approach.
• Action 2: Provide a clearer and more detailed description of the action.
• Action 3: Consider the implications of Project Willow not being included in the Growth Deal governance structure, which may contradict the objective of Action 2.
• Action 4: Clarify the nature and function of the Regulatory Hub.
• Action 5: Acknowledge that Just Transition conditionalities already exist within current funding mechanisms.
• Action 6: Address the barrier posed by the lack of timely availability of funding.
• Action 7: Review the relevance of this action, given that there is already good alignment across the Forth Valley.
• Action 8: Provide more clarity on the progress of this action.
• Action 9: Clarify who will lead and fund this action and identify the intended target market.
• Action 10: Clarify whether this action refers to investment or grant funding.
• Action 11: Reword the action to ensure it does not appear critical of a programme that operates within the fixed and often inflexible timelines of the Growth Deal process.
• Action 12: Take into account the findings of the STAG Case for Change report.
• Action 13: Clarify whether the funding referred to is existing or new, and explain the reference to the Transition Deal, which is currently unclear.
• Action 14: Consider the Falkirk Council Community Engagement Strategy, Framework and Charter, the work of the Community Planning Partnership, and the Grangemouth Community Action Plan.
• Action 15: Confirm whether further funding will be provided for a post that is already active.
• Action 16: Provide greater clarity on the context and achievability of this action in line with procurement rules and consider rephrasing.
• Action 17: Clarify whether this action will be in addition to the Supplier Development Programme and whether the Programme will have a role, and identify who will lead and manage the Forum.
• Action 18: Clarify who will lead and fund the Expo and Cluster Strategy.
• Action 19: Confirm the lead organisation for this action.
• Action 20: Confirm the lead organisation for this action, which is assumed to be Scottish Enterprise.
• Action 21: Confirm the lead organisation for this action, which is also assumed to be Scottish Enterprise.

24. To what extent do you agree that the Action Plan will progress from the Baseline to the 2045 Vision for the Grangemouth industrial cluster?

Engagement with this question was limited. Less than half respondents (36.7%) to the consultation answered this question. Of those who answered, over half (55%) stayed neutral on whether the Action Plan will enable progress from the Baseline to the 2045 Vision for the Grangemouth industrial cluster, while 27% agreed and 18% disagreed or strongly disagreed (see Figure 8).

There was a clear pattern among respondent groups: those who disagreed were individuals, those who agreed were either port operators or organisations from the wider industry, and those who were neutral included representatives from wider industry, non-profits or charities, trade bodies or professional associations, local councils, and training providers.

Despite limited engagement, respondents provided their substantive views on the question. Among those who agreed or remained neutral, the most common view was that the Action Plan provides a solid foundation, although further implementation and challenges remain. As one respondent noted:

“[…] fully supports the progression of the Action Plan as an item of common good for Scotland and the workforce, and the detail that sits within it. The achievement of the Vision, though, will be contingent on effective management of priorities, and the convening power possessed by Scottish Government being effectively exercised to galvanise stakeholders and set realistic and measurable milestones, as has been discussed in previous questions.” (Non profit or charity)

The suggestions put forward varied. Some respondents suggested that the goals should be achievable with sustained focus and alignment between the public and private sectors. They also recommended allowing the transition to be industry-led, prioritising efforts to address decline before rebuilding, implementing financial and policy frameworks to support private sector and industry investment, and continuing support for Project Willow.

Challenges were highlighted by respondents who either disagreed or were neutral on whether the Action Plan would successfully advance from the Baseline to the 2045 Vision for the Grangemouth cluster. These perceived challenges included:

• Lack of a clear financial plan.
• Uncertainty over how the Grangemouth regulatory hub will interact with the National Planning Improvement Hub.
• Since the Vision was developed before the Project Willow report was finalised, they felt it could lack a complete Baseline context.
• Achieving the Vision depends on the effective management of priorities and expectations between the government and other stakeholders.
• External factors, such as political changes, could either accelerate or hinder progress.

25. What barriers, if any, can you foresee that would prevent the industrial cluster and partners across the Grangemouth Future Industry Board from achieving actions as set out in the plan?

Respondents identified various barriers that they felt could prevent the industrial cluster and partners across the Grangemouth Future Industry Board from achieving the actions set out in the plan.

Most commonly, respondents raised concerns about securing funding for the plan to be fulfilled, specifically, long-term funding and investments.

The next most commonly mentioned barrier was the lack of a comprehensive approach to managing the transition to net zero within the Grangemouth industrial cluster. Those highlighting this challenge, pointed to regulatory and planning challenges, describing the existing processes as complex, slow, and difficult to navigate. Others emphasised the absence of a well-structured long-term strategy that effectively integrates policy, regulation, and financial support. Relatedly, concerns were also raised about the lack of a clear mechanism for reviewing and adjusting actions over time, as well as the need for stronger political commitment to drive progress. Additionally, some respondents noted that delays in planning agreements and regulatory challenges could hinder investment and slow down industrial transformation.

The third most commonly mentioned barrier was the divergence of stakeholder priorities, which could hinder the progress of the Action Plan. Respondents noted that conflicting interests among key stakeholders, combined with the absence of binding agreements, make it difficult to achieve strategic alignment. They also noted that efforts are often fragmented into numerous small projects, lacking a holistic approach. Examples provided by these respondents include potential prioritisation of financial returns over long-term strategic goals by landowners, while an industry-led approach could be constrained by corporate priorities set outside Scotland.

A few respondents also identified additional barriers, such as challenges in attracting and retaining skilled workers, potential shortages of essential resources like water, power, and land, and rising costs of raw materials and technologies. Other concerns included geopolitical instability, the unpredictability of global events, and the risks posed by natural disasters and climate change, particularly given Grangemouth’s location on the Forth Estuary.

To address these barriers, some respondents provided suggestions. The most commonly mentioned suggestions were the need for greater clarity on the roles and responsibilities of GFIB and the importance of a coordinated, government-led approach that aligns stakeholder interests to ensure long-term success. Other less frequent recommendations included prioritising the immediate needs of the industry, securing a clear commitment from the UK Government on continued funding for the cluster, maintaining ongoing collaboration between the UK and Scottish governments, and establishing strong governance structures to oversee implementation.

As one respondent noted:

"The final potential barrier – and possibly the most significant – relates to the risk that the delivery of the Grangemouth just transition action plan is inconsistent and becomes weaker over time. To counter this, strong governance should be created, including sufficient resources identified to deliver future plans and regular (5-yearly?) reviews of the strategy / action plan." (Government agency or department)

26. What should the role of each partner be in delivering the actions, including industry, workforce, community, wider public sector, and UK Government?

Respondents shared a range of views on the respective roles of key partners, including industry, the workforce, the community, the wider public sector, and the Scottish and UK governments, in delivering the actions outlined in the plan.

Most commonly, respondents said that all partners should collaborate effectively, drawing on their respective expertise and resources to deliver the Action Plan. They suggested that this collaboration should be built on open and honest dialogue, with pragmatic coordination and actions assigned to those best placed to lead. There was support for setting realistic targets, appointing a clear lead and supporting stakeholders for each action, and improving coordination across the Forth Valley to ensure the Grangemouth industrial cluster receives appropriate attention while enhancing opportunities for surrounding communities. This was specifically mentioned by the following respondent:

"A collaborative approach is required but within this each organisation would have clear roles […].” (Training provider)

Role of industry

On the role of industry, some respondents said there should be continued investment in innovation, a strong commitment to net zero, and effective partnership working. A few of these respondents said the region’s skilled workforce, local expertise, and long-standing industrial heritage should be used as a foundation for building a clean energy future. The development of flexible skills programmes was considered important to support both current and future workers.

Several specific industry partners were mentioned. One respondent said the Forth Green Freeport should lead on international promotion, while Scottish Enterprise’s Property and Growth Infrastructure team could support land development. Scottish Development International (SDI) teams were seen as vital for sectoral targeting, identifying market opportunities, and promoting Freeport tax and customs benefits to potential occupiers. Insights from inward investment discussions were also viewed as valuable for shaping site development.

Role of workforce

The workforce, a few respondents said, should be open to adapting their skillsets and actively engage in upskilling opportunities. The workforce was also encouraged to promote the transferability of their expertise, contribute to strategy development, and help identify both challenges and opportunities during the transition.

Role of community

A few respondents said the community should approach the transition with a positive mindset and actively engage in shaping it. This included raising awareness, participating in consultations and forums, and initiating community-led projects. Outreach programmes were also recommended to empower the local population.

Role of the public sector

For the wider public sector, some respondents outlined a broad role encompassing policy development, joint project delivery, and the establishment of clear regulatory frameworks. They called for investment in facilities such as the Forth Valley College Skills Transition Centre and the development of a bespoke STEM programme to meet local needs. Enhancing collaboration with further and higher education institutions, aligning qualifications with the transitioning economy, and creating employer-education forums were also suggested. Respondents highlighted the need to better link existing skills initiatives across the region, including those within the Regional Deal and the Grangemouth Just Transition Plan, to share knowledge and align efforts. Public bodies were encouraged to identify and promote emerging job opportunities to ensure Forth Valley residents benefit from the transition.

Role of Scottish Government

Some respondents offered views on the role the Scottish Government should play in delivering the Action Plan. It was suggested that the Government should work closely with industry and other partners to develop a clear strategy and set achievable timeframes. They also called for clarity on specific points such as future CCS investment, the introduction of supportive tax measures for renewable fuels, and consultation on a Renewable Liquid Heating Fuel Obligation. Additionally, respondents underscored the need for improved coordination between Government initiatives and training programmes to create coherent and accessible skills pathways. Respondents also emphasised the importance of building long-term, meaningful engagement with industry and fostering a relationship based on trust.

Finally, respondents said that the Scottish Government should work closely with the UK Government on major policy decisions affecting the industry. In partnership with the UK Government, the Scottish Government was also encouraged to secure investment from both public and private sectors. Aligning strategies, legislation and incentives while supporting international promotion were seen as additional priorities.