Grangemouth - draft Just Transition Plan: consultation analysis

Part 2: Industrial Vision for 2045

The Industrial Vision for 2045 offers a visual outline of Grangemouth as a Net Zero manufacturing hub, illustrating what a Just Transition aims to achieve and how it may affect local communities. It sets the strategic direction for future policy, investment, and planning decisions. In Part 2 of the consultation document, the Scottish Government asked for the public’s views on 9 questions relating to the 2045 Industrial Vision. These questions explore whether respondents felt the Vision reflects a realistic and inclusive future for Grangemouth, improves quality of life, and addresses key challenges. Views were also gathered on the proposed Transition Pillars and outcomes, the accessibility of future industrial opportunities, Grangemouth’s role in supporting energy security, and the potential for domestic and international market growth. Respondents also provided suggestions on how the Scottish Government can best support the transition. This section summarises the thematic analysis of these responses, structured according to the specific questions asked.

7. To what extent do you agree that the 2045 Vision for Grangemouth will improve the quality of life for its residents?

Respondents were equally divided on whether the 2045 Vision for Grangemouth will improve the quality of life for its residents. Just under half (41%) respondents who answered this question either agreed or strongly agreed with this statement, a similar proportion (41%) either disagreed or strongly disagreed, and 18% of the respondents responded neutrally to this statement. In contrast, respondents to the community consultation had a clearer view on the subject, with a majority of Grangemouth’s community either agreeing or strongly agreeing that it would increase quality of life.

Most respondents noted that the success of the Vision will depend on the execution of the Just Transition Plan itself. Some respondents felt that there are challenges in balancing long-term goals with immediate community needs, such as employment and skills development.

Respondents who did not agree that the Vision would improve the quality of life for Grangemouth residents cited concerns about the environmental impact of biofuel production, the lack of support in the Plan for workers facing layoffs, and the involvement of current industry partners who were perceived to have caused the problem in the first place.

Those who agreed, also outlined challenges to improving the quality of life, such as the negative image of the Grangemouth Industrial complex, the need to align with other local initiatives (no specifics provided), and to ensure the benefits are distributed equitably across all resident groups.

8. To what extent do you agree that the Vision accurately represents the future of Grangemouth in 2045?

Respondents were divided on whether the Vision accurately represents the future of Grangemouth in 2045. Of respondents who answered this question, 44% agreed, while 33% disagreed or strongly disagreed, with the remaining 22% staying neutral (see Figure 5). Views were varied across respondent types, with no single response being prevalent among respondent groups.

In this case as well, Grangemouth community had a clearer view, with 63 % of Grangemouth’s community noting that the Vision accurately represents the future of Grangemouth.

Grangemouth’s community pointed to potential intangibility of the Vision

The community consultation report highlighted a potential disconnect with the Vision in terms of tangibility. The report attributes this to the difference between the proportion of community members willing to agree/strongly agree that the Vision would increase quality of life (70.27%) than it would definitively represent the future (63.27%). Highlighting this issue further, the report notes that most community members felt that the Vision’s capacity to represent the future of Grangemouth was “difficult to foresee” and “it only represents the future if it happens.”

9. What are the main challenges in achieving the 2045 Vision?

Respondents identified a range of challenges in achieving the 2045 Vision. These challenges relate broadly to the themes of funding, balancing of competing interests and priorities, skilled workforce, vague and lacking clear goals, and keeping Grangemouth competitive during transition.

Funding

Most commonly, respondents felt that securing funding for both immediate support and long-term projects is a challenge in achieving the 2045 Vision. This challenge was primarily reported by local council, port operator, training provider and wider industry respondent groups. The issue of funding or financing the cost of changes needed was also commonly identified as a challenge by members of the Grangemouth community, through the community consultation.

Balancing competing interests and priorities

Many respondents also reported that effective balancing of competing interests and priorities could be a challenge. In this regard, stakeholders specifically pointed to foreseeable challenges around balancing the 20-year transformation with supporting current industries and residents, implementing new technologies without disrupting current operations, balancing future skill needs with present employment demand, and addressing urgent environmental issues while planning for sustainability. A few respondents specifically noted that the success of the Plan requires a coordinated approach from all stakeholders, but they have competing priorities.

Skilled workforce

Some respondents mentioned the challenge of attracting and retaining a skilled workforce to achieve the Vision, as they had concerns about a potential shortage of skilled labour needed to achieve the Vision. One respondent wrote:

“The immediate-term redundancies at the refinery, which will have immediate impacts on the wellbeing of workers and the Grangemouth community. This could lead to a loss of relevant skills and expertise from the workforce and surrounding area, leading to skill shortages in the future once the refinery begins to transition to an alternative use." (trade body/professional association)

Vague and lacking clear goals

Some respondents thought the outcomes to be vague and lacking clear goals, with one respondent stating that there are no clear timelines for the outcomes, nor is it clear who is responsible for achieving them.

One respondent wrote:

"Having a lack of clear goals will be one of the main challenges in achieving the 2045 Vision. Vague, or poorly defined, goals can make it difficult to measure and monitor progress. Setting specific, measurable, achievable, relevant, and time-bound (SMART) objectives can provide clarity and direction to achieve the Vision.” (non profit/charity)

This finding is aligned with responses from the Grangemouth community consultation, which showed that the most commonly noted challenge was the lack of preparation and tangible milestones within the Vision and Plan. The community consultation particularly saw quite a few questions from the Grangemouth community on how the Vision could be actualised in practice, with requests for data approximating cost and leadership, as well as measures to limit impact from political changeover.

Keeping Grangemouth competitive

A few respondents highlighted the perceived challenge of keeping Grangemouth competitive during the Transition. A few respondents mentioned the challenge of upgrading infrastructure to meet both immediate and future needs.

Specific challenges outlined by Grangemouth’s community

Outside of the challenges outlined above, a few other areas were specifically identified by members of the Grangemouth community as challenges:

• Challenges around balancing differing priorities and achieving buy-in
• Perceived lack of support from the Scottish Government and the UK Government
• Perceived lack of preparedness for rapid pace of changes taking place
• Lack of understanding of key stakeholders, policy landscape, and awareness of issues, leading to disengagement by community members. For instance, the community consultation report found that the community shared a lack of understanding about who and what GFIB is, along with misunderstandings of the Just Transition Process due to relying on word of mouth or news articles which do not provide the entire picture.
• Consultation fatigue, with community members feeling that they are often heavily consulted prior in relation to major policy decisions, but that this does not result in any tangible changes. Through the consultation, members of the community referred to previous experiences, with several noting participation in previous consultations and focus groups for developments such as the local Community Action Plan for Grangemouth – however, from community perspective there has been no significant achievements or visibility of development actions within the Community Action Plan since its launch in 2022.
• The 20-year vision perceived as a long timeline that is too far into the future.

Lack of clarity of the Vision. Generally, people felt short-term stages within the Vision would make it more impactful – with many feeling that evidence of work achieved should be reported yearly for the first two years before moving to five-year increments.

10. Do you agree with the proposed ‘Transition Pillars’ outlined in the vision? Based on your knowledge of future net zero opportunities at Grangemouth, what other items could be added to the pillars?

A majority of respondents (69%) who answered the question agreed with the proposed ‘Transition Pillars’, with 23% disagreeing and 8% answering ‘don’t know’.^[4] Respondents who disagreed primarily included individual and trade body or professional association respondents. None of the respondents answered strongly agree or strongly disagree to the closed question.

Of those who agreed, some respondents support all the pillars and believe they provide a strong foundation for Just Transition.

In contrast, a few wider industry respondents who agreed, reported issues with Pillar 5 (‘an innovative cluster leading new and advanced industrial processes and manufacturing’), noting that this pillar felt more aspirational and sits outside the context of the other pillars. Pillar 5 was perceived as being unclear on the unique advantage that Grangemouth can provide, so that these activities could take place there.

Other respondents offered specific suggestions, such as incorporating circular economy principles, emphasising the role of digital technologies and strengthening references to workforce transition. One respondent wrote:

"To ensure the Pillars provide a comprehensive approach, consideration should be given to enhancing these with stronger references to community partnership/engagement, workforce and skills transition, impact of digital technology. It may also be helpful to consider the Pillars in terms of short, medium and long-term goals and if all of these should be given the same priority. For example, is there a pillar that should be given higher priority in the early stages of the Vision? Prioritisation would help focus resources.” (Training Provider)

Of those who disagreed, some individual respondents were opposed to the entire Just Transition project, due to concerns that the promises would not be fulfilled and that the transition lacked the changes needed to go beyond the current paradigm that they feel has created problems in Grangemouth. The trade body/professional association respondents who disagreed provided specific suggestions, noting that pillar 2 should include other synthetic fuel, and pillar 3 should differentiate between CCU and CCS.

Grangemouth’s community broadly agreed on Transition Pillars, but outlined some challenges

The community consultation indicates a different understanding of the transition pillars among Grangemouth community members. The consultation found that 62% of Grangemouth community agreed with the goals set out in the Transition Pillars. However, there was scepticism and confusion at the lack of community focus. The community largely felt that “Pillars do not include anything out with industrial and economic areas. It should include leisure, recreation, housing, sport and activity areas.” Further, a third of respondents noted that they ‘don’t know’, underscoring the need for future engagement to promote local knowledge and understanding of transition pillars.

11. Do you agree with the Just Transition Outcomes proposed in the Vision? How could these be improved upon?

A majority of respondents who answered this question (67%) agreed with the Just Transition Outcomes, while 33% disagreed.^[5] Respondents who disagreed primarily belonged to the individual, trade body/professional association and non-profit/charity groups. None of the respondents answered strongly agree or strongly disagree for the closed question.

Response from the Grangemouth community on this question was similar, where 73% of the community consultation respondents agreed with the outcomes, and around 20% were unsure.

Respondents who agreed, expressed their support of the Outcomes, noting it offers a comprehensive framework for the sustainable future of Grangemouth and aligns with the five Transition pillars. However, one training provider respondent who agreed expressed concern that the Outcomes lacked SMART measures to enable stakeholders to assess their progress. Respondents who disagreed with the outcomes cautioned that the negative environmental effects of biofuel production may undermine results.

In terms of how the Outcomes could be improved, all but one of the suggestions are given by those who agreed with the Just Transition Outcomes. Respondents suggested including more specific, measurable targets, as well as clear timelines. One respondent wrote:

“The outcomes are currently lacking SMART measures which would enable stakeholders to assess progress of the Vision against these. For example within the Communities and Place outcome it states that “communities are empowered” “Grangemouth has enhanced relationship between community and industry” but it is not clear how this will be measured, the timeline, who is responsible for taking forward these outcomes and how these will be reviewed.” (training provider)

Another respondent offered a similar suggestion, stating that stronger governance and tracking processes are required to ensure the Vision’s completion.

Respondents from the wider industry and port operator groups suggested that the priority should be on jobs, skills, and economic opportunities.

The suggestion from the trade body/professional association respondent who disagreed was to consider the economic viability of the assets.

A few suggestions were offered by respondents who did not indicate whether they agreed or disagreed with the outcomes. These are specifically related to improving Outcomes 5 and 15. For Outcome 5, consider mentioning active travel rather than just ‘improving public transport’, and use the term ‘climate resilience’ rather than just ‘resilience’. Additionally, optimise the use of land to provide services and resources. For Outcome 15, consider dropping reference to Scotland’s Biodiversity Strategy, as the objectives presented are not solely about biodiversity.

Other suggestions include weighting the outcomes in terms of their importance, instead of fixing the outcomes; and regularly reviewing and refining them. Outside of these improvements, one training provider noted that some of the actions outlined in the outcomes may already be underway in Grangemouth.

12. What other elements could be included in the Vision?

Respondents suggested a wide range of elements that they felt should be included in the Vision.

Some respondents argued that more focus should be placed on the workforce, providing a green skills academy and offering a clear workforce strategy to support an orderly transition. These respondents felt that the Vision should place greater emphasis on the impact of the immediate closure of the refinery and provide a more robust plan for the affected workers. These suggestions came from the wider industry, individual, and training provider respondents.

One trade body/professional association respondent praised the Vision as being comprehensive and detailed, but felt it is solely focused on long-term transformation and suggested that it could include milestones and short- and medium-term objectives.

A few respondents from the wider industry and training provider groups suggested that the Vision should include a digital transformation strategy, which should also include a roadmap for a circular economy.

One individual respondent felt that the Vision should include how oil can be used to create green industries, so there are actual jobs to transition into.

A suggestion was made for the Vision to allow for the use of different technologies and solutions that match the characteristics of the premises and the people to ensure effective decarbonisation of homes and businesses. Similarly, it was felt that the Vision should remove the production of biofuels and focus on areas such as retrofitting homes and renewable wind and solar energy. It was felt that the Vision should include elements that could serve as a starting point for other similar initiatives as well as align with national strategies and net-zero ambitions.

Other suggestions were made for the Vision to include a Health and Wellbeing strategy, a research and innovation hub, a climate resilience plan, sustainable flood risk management, and blue and green infrastructure.

Grangemouth’s community felt the Vision has a strong focus on industry

The community consultation highlighted an overwhelming perception that the Vision lacks focus outside of Industry, with a high proportion of respondents indicating they felt like industry was being put before the community. Relatedly, members of the community noted the Vision lacks relevant and achievable community-led plans. The biggest issue noted was the environment within Grangemouth, with many community members arguing for the inclusion of improvements to amenities and focus on green spaces within the revised plan. Further, people felt short-term stages within the Vision would make it more impactful – with many feeling that evidence of work achieved should be reported yearly for the first two years before moving to five-year increments.

13. To what extent do you agree the Grangemouth of 2045 will provide a reliable source of broader industrial opportunities that are more accessible to Grangemouth residents?

Among respondents who engaged with this question, more agreed than disagreed that Grangemouth of 2045 will provide a reliable source of industrial opportunities. More specifically, 47% of those who answered this question, either agreed or strongly agreed, while 20% strongly disagreed, and 33% were neutral.^[6] Grangemouth community members are generally aligned on this sentiment, with 59% of respondents to the community consultation also agreeing that there will be a broader range of industrial opportunities.

Respondents across the board outlined perceived challenges to a reliable source of broader industrial opportunities. Most commonly, respondents such as those from local councils, trade bodies, and port operators, argued that achieving this is dependent on other factors; for instance, on the ability to effectively provide skill development, thereby enabling employers to build a locally based skilled workforce. One respondent expanded:

"The success of this will depend on the ability to stimulate interest, develop skill sets and be clear on the relevant pathway to jobs that will be created" (port operator)

Other respondents, including training providers and Government department respondents, stated that the Vision lacks certain elements to create accessible industrial opportunities, e.g. a clear investment plan. They also felt that the future employment opportunities in Grangemouth will extend beyond Grangemouth itself, which can affect opportunities available to local residents.

Notwithstanding the challenges, respondents did highlight opportunities in this regard. For instance, one respondent stated that many elements are in place to create accessible industrial opportunities, and there is a clear commitment from partners across various sectors to achieve this. Another believed that maximising green hydrogen-related opportunities would ensure existing infrastructure is utilised and new employment opportunities created. One respondent praised the Vision for being aligned with Scottish Government (SG) strategies, noting that this should therefore attract the investment needed. In their view, the Vision will help to create a diverse and high-value local economy centred on manufacturing, low-carbon energy, and carbon capture.

Some respondents from wider industry and non-profits also provided suggestions. These respondents suggested that continuous evaluation and adaptation strategies would be crucial to maximise positive outcomes and alignment with the Transition Plan. A few respondents from the Government also stressed the importance of community engagement. These respondents had a large number of suggestions to ensure industrial opportunities, including strategic alignment with the UK government, including its new Industrial Strategy and the National Wealth Fund, strong alignment around investment priorities to attract external investment,^[7] transparent and effective communication to Grangemouth residents of future job/career opportunities, and ensure that local skills providers match their understanding of Grangemouth’s skills profile against anticipated employment opportunities so they can develop course provision that addresses the skills gaps among local residents.

Importantly, one respondent specified that they were unclear on the meaning of 'industrial opportunities' here – noting their confusion on not knowing whether it means co-owned and run for the public good, rather than corporate profit and personal enrichment by a few. This lack of clarity can indicate the reason behind many respondents not fully engaging with this question and/or reporting their views as ‘neutral’.

Grangemouth’s community recommended transparent communication of industrial opportunities

The Grangemouth community consultation report provided a key recommendation, suggesting that there should be transparent communication of industrial opportunities and related projects. For instance, it was noted that Project Willow and its aspirations to create credible long-term industrial options for Grangemouth should be shared with the community. This was recommended as fostering community support and understanding around the collaborative approach undertaken by UK and Scottish Government, Industry, agencies and local businesses in seeking to secure the long-term future of the industrial cluster – which in turn, has the potential to increase public buy-in to projects.

14. To what extent do you agree that Grangemouth can continue to safeguard Scotland’s future energy security through sustainment of net zero operations?

A majority of respondents (69%) who answered this question either agreed or strongly agreed that Grangemouth can continue to safeguard Scotland’s future energy security by sustaining net-zero operations, while 31% disagreed or strongly disagreed.

Respondents across the board (including those who agreed and those who disagreed) noted challenges to achieving this goal. Most respondents who agreed stated that success depends on careful implementation and supportive policies. One respondent wrote:

"Grangemouth can become a hub for net zero production, providing the fuels and materials needed to underpin a net zero economy in Scotland, and the wider UK. The outcome of Project Willow will be key to informing what that might look like and where UK Government and Scottish Government investment should be prioritised. However, urgent action is needed." (trade body/professional association)

One port operator respondent who agreed expressed concern that the rapid pace of refinery closures would make other locations in the UK more attractive for energy production. Among respondents who disagreed, one attributed a perceived lack of enthusiasm from the industry as contributing to challenges to safeguarding Scotland’s future energy security, while another even disagreed with the idea that Grangemouth currently safeguards Scotland’s energy.

In terms of positives, respondents commonly noted that Grangemouth has the potential to significantly contribute to Scotland's future energy security through net zero operations. One Government agency respondent specified this potential as Grangemouth having the infrastructure, transferable skills, transport connections and industrial partners to enable this shift to green energy production. They further noted that the port land at Grangemouth has the ability to support the capital/build phase of offshore wind, and that its refinery could accommodate sustainable/alternative fuels and chemical production.

In terms of suggestions on how Grangemouth could safeguard energy security in the future, a few respondents from the wider industry stated that carbon capture and storage (CCS) must be part of Grangemouth’s future industrial base. Some respondents from the wider industry also emphasised the importance of ‘balance’, specifically the need to strike a balance between maintaining current operations and introducing new technology, as well as the balance between climate goals and the community's needs. Other suggestions included establishing clear milestones and developing short-term, medium-term, and long-term plans for safeguarding future energy security, as well as ensuring a national, coordinated approach.

15. Where do you see the greatest domestic and international market supply chain opportunities resulting from the Grangemouth transition, and how can the Scottish Government best support these?

Respondents pointed to a range of domestic and international supply chain opportunities resulting from the transition.

Domestic opportunities

Most commonly, respondents identified domestic opportunities in renewable energy infrastructure development, e.g., wind, tidal, and hydrogen. This view was shared by all respondent subgroups. Some respondents also mention the domestic opportunities for CCS technology. In this regard, one respondent wrote:

"Through its transition to net zero Grangemouth has the potential to unlock new markets domestically and globally through for example, hydrogen, carbon storage and capture services, green chemicals and sustainable manufacturing.” (training provider)

International opportunities

In terms of international opportunities, suggestions are only provided by respondents from wider industry, trade bodies/professional associations, and training providers. These respondents noted that after the Transition, Grangemouth could produce and export green hydrogen and sustainable fuel. A few respondents wrote that a successful transition would create opportunities for Scotland to export clean technology expertise and consulting services. One respondent also stated that after the Transition, Grangemouth would be positioned as a destination for global companies, which would boost investment and aid the development of new technologies.

How the SG can support these opportunities

Respondents also provided suggestions on how the SG could support these opportunities. Some respondents felt that the SG should collaborate with other businesses or the UK Government. Those suggesting this explained:

"[...] Economic Contribution of the Grangemouth Refinery, identified four clusters in Falkirk, Edinburgh, Glasgow and Aberdeen, and collaborating with these proactively so they could assist the Grangemouth transition and retain skills, jobs and expertise should be a top priority. [...]" (trade body/professional association)

Other respondents stated that the SG must ensure its policy creates incentives for private investment. Investment in CCS technology was identified as a key area to be supported, with one respondent specifying that the manufacturing and development/delivery of equipment, chemicals, and materials that support the setup and expansion of any biorefinery or carbon capture facility should be supported. Another respondent noted that the SG could support by offering consistent messaging and branding to strengthen Grangemouth’s identity as an industrial cluster. This respondent wrote:

“A strong marketing and cluster identity for Grangemouth will also help position Grangemouth domestically and internationally. Consistent messaging and branding will strengthen this and support the Cluster unlock new supply chain opportunities." (training provider)

Furthermore, one respondent noted that the SG could support the opportunities by setting clear decarbonisation targets that align with international markets.

Challenges to supply chain opportunities

In contrast, one respondent (a government agency/dept) identified challenges for Scotland to capitalise on any potential supply chain opportunities arising from the transition, noting their perception that there is likely to be a relatively limited capability to manufacture at scale due to a lack of existing Scottish supply chains.