What Works to Reduce Reoffending: update of the evidence on imprisonment and community disposals
This paper is the first in the series ‘What Works to Reduce Reoffending: An update of the evidence’. The Scottish Government last published What Works to Reduce Reoffending: A Summary of the Evidence in 2015.
Bibliography
Al Weswasi, E. (2024). Estimating the incapacitation effect among first-time incarcerated offenders. European Journal of Criminology, 21(6), 799-829. [https://doi.org/10.1177/14773708241249808]
Al Weswasi, E., Sivertsson, F., Bäckman, O. et al. (2023). Does sentence length affect the risk for criminal recidivism? A quasi-experimental study of three policy reforms in Sweden. J Exp Criminol 19, 971–999. [https://doi.org/10.1007/s11292-022-09513-1]
Barnett, G. & Fitzalan Howard, F. (2018). What Doesn’t Work to Reduce Reoffending?: A Review of Reviews of Ineffective Interventions for Adults Convicted of Crimes. European Psychologist. 23. 111-129. 10.1027/1016-9040/a000323.
Belur, J., Thornton, A., Tompson, L., Manning, M., Sidebottom, A. & Bowers, K. (2020). A systematic review of the effectiveness of the electronic monitoring of offenders. Journal of Criminal Justice. 68. 101686. 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2020.101686.
Centre for Justice Innovation. Checkpoint. [Checkpoint | Centre for Justice Innovation]
Clark, C., Bales, W. D., Scaggs, S., Ensley, D., Coltharp, P. & Blomberg, T. G. (2015). Assessing the Impact of Post-Release Community Supervision on Post-Release Recidivism and Employment. National Institute of Justice.[Assessing the Impact of Post-Release Community Supervision on Post-Release Recidivism and Employment | National Institute of Justice]
Criminal Justice and Licensing (Scotland) Act 2010. [Criminal Justice and Licensing (Scotland) Act 2010]
Damm, A. P. & Gorinas, C. (2020) Prison as a Criminal School: Peer Effects and Criminal Learning behind Bars. Journal of Law and Economics, 63(1), [https://doi.org/10.1086/706820]
Mears, D. P., Cochran, J. C., Bales, W. D. & Bhati, A. S., Recidivism and Time Served in Prison, 106 J. Criminal Law & Criminology (2016).[https://scholarlycommons.law.northwestern.edu/jclc/vol106/iss1/5]
Duwe, G., & Clark, V. (2016). The Rehabilitative Ideal versus the Criminogenic Reality: The Consequences of Warehousing Prisoners. Corrections, 2(1), 41–69. [https://doi.org/10.1080/23774657.2016.1240596]
Edgemon, T. G., & Clay-Warner, J. (2019). Inmate Mental Health and the Pains of Imprisonment. Society and Mental Health, 9(1), 33-50. [https://doi.org/10.1177/2156869318785424]
Berger, E. & Scheidegger, K. S. (2022). Sentence Length and Recidivism: A Review of the Research. Federal Sentencing Reporter 1; 35 (1): 59–72. doi: [https://doi.org/10.1525/fsr.2022.35.1.59]
Fazel S, Hayes AJ, Bartellas K, Clerici M, Trestman R. (2016). Mental health of prisoners: prevalence, adverse outcomes, and interventions. Lancet Psychiatry; 3:871–81.[https://doi.org/10.1016/S2215-0366(16)30142-0.]
Gormley, J., Hamilton, M. & Belton, I. (2019). The Effectiveness of Sentencing Options on Reoffending. [Sentencing Council 2019]
Howard League Scotland. (2021). The Scandal of Remand in Scotland. [The Scandal of Remand in Scotland: A Report by Howard League Scotland – May 2021 | Howard League Scotland]
HM Prison and Probation Service (2018). The dynamic predictors of reconviction for women. [The dynamic predictors of reconviction for women]
Kleck, G. (2018). Encyclopaedia of Criminology and Criminal Justice. 1014–1023. [https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-5690-2_408]
Loeffler, C. E., & Nagin, D. S. (2022). The Impact of incarceration on recidivism. Annual Review of Criminology, 5, 133–153. [https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-criminol-030920-112506]
Meuer, K., & Woessner, G. (2020). Does electronic monitoring as a means of release preparation reduce subsequent recidivism? A randomized controlled trial in Germany. European Journal of Criminology, 17(5), 563-584. [https://doi.org/10.1177/1477370818809663]
Ministry of Justice (2015). The impact of short custodial sentences, Community Orders and Suspended Sentence Orders on reoffending. [The impact of short custodial sentences, Community Orders and Suspended Sentence Orders on reoffending - GOV.UK]
Ministry of Justice (2019). Economic and social costs of reoffending. [Economic and social costs of reoffending - GOV.UK]
Ministry of Justice (2023). The use of short prison sentences in England and Wales. [The use of short prison sentences in England and Wales - POST]
Ministry of Justice (2024). Safety in Custody Statistics, England and Wales: Deaths in Prison Custody to June 2024 Assaults and Self-harm to March 2024. [Safety in Custody Statistics, England and Wales: Deaths in Prison Custody to June 2024 Assaults and Self-harm to March 2024 - GOV.UK]
Perry, A. E. (2016). What Works in Crime Prevention and Rehabilitation, Lessons from Systematic Reviews. 169–191. [https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4939-3477-5_6]
Petrich, D. M., Pratt, T. C., Jonson, C. L., Cullen, F.T. (2021). Custodial sanctions and reoffending: a meta-analytic review. Criminal Justice. 2021; 50. [https://doi.org/10.1086/715100]
Philippe, A. (2023). 'Learning by offending: How do criminals learn about criminal law?', American Economic Journal: Economic Policy. [https://hdl.handle.net/1983/33326ac9-bc30-489e-bb55-44231e5e3c5c]
Presumption Against Short Periods of Imprisonment (Scotland) Order 2019 – [Presumption Against Short Periods of Imprisonment (Scotland) Order 2019]
Prison Reform Trust (2017). Why focus on reducing women’s imprisonment in Scotland? – [Why focus on reducing women's imprisonment in Scotland? | Prison Reform Trust]
Prison Reform Trust (2022). Prison: the facts. Bromley Briefings Summer 2022. [Prison: the facts—Summer 2022 | Prison Reform Trust]
Prisoners (Early Release) (Scotland) Act 2025 – [Prisoners (Early Release) (Scotland) Act 2025]
Rodermond, E., Kruttschnitt, C., Slotboom, A.-M., & Bijleveld, C. C. (2016). Female desistance: A review of the literature. European Journal of Criminology, 13(1), 3-28. [https://doi.org/10.1177/1477370815597251]
Samaritans (2022). Samaritans policy position: People in prison and who have recently left prison – [Policy_position_people_in_prison_and_leaving_prison_England_and_Wales_FINAL_Se_yUdCQIF.pdf]
ScotPHO (2024). Prisoners: prison population –[ScotPHO 2024]
Scottish Centre for Crime & Justice Research (2023). Women and Prison – [Women-and-Prison.pdf]
Scottish Government (2025a). Scottish prison population projections: April 2025 – [Scottish prison population projections: April 2025 - gov.scot]
Scottish Government (2025b). Safer Communities and Justice Statistics Monthly Data Report: January 2025 edition –[ Safer Communities and Justice Statistics Monthly Data Report: January 2025 - gov.scot]
Scottish Government (2024a). Prison population: position paper – [Prison population: position paper - gov.scot]
Scottish Government (2024b). Reconviction Rates in Scotland: 2020-21 Offender Cohort – [4. Background - Reconviction Rates in Scotland: 2020-21 Offender Cohort - gov.scot]
Scottish Government (2024c). Scottish Prison Population Statistics 2023-24 – [Average Daily Populations - Scottish Prison Population Statistics 2023-24 - gov.scot]
Scottish Government (2024d). Criminal Proceedings in Scotland, 2022-23 – [Criminal Proceedings in Scotland, 2022-23 - gov.scot]
Scottish Government (2024e). Prison population – Factsheet – [Prison population - gov.scot]
Scottish Government (2024f). Short custodial disposals from court and the prison population – [Short custodial disposals from court and the prison population - gov.scot]
Scottish Government (2023a). Decision-making on Bail and Remand in Scotland: final report - December 2023.[Alternatives to Remand - Decision-making on Bail and Remand in Scotland: final report - December 2023 - gov.scot]
Scottish Government (2023b). Scottish Prison Population Statistics 2022-23 – [Supporting documents - Scottish Prison Population Statistics 2022-23 - gov.scot]
Scottish Government (2022a). Women in the justice system: evidence review –[4. Patterns of offending and the justice system response - Women in the justice system: evidence review - gov.scot]
Scottish Government (2022b). Prison population: mental health needs – [Understanding the scale of mental health needs in Scotland's prison population - Prison population: mental health needs - gov.scot]
Scottish Government (2015). What Works to Reduce Reoffending: A Summary of the Evidence –[Supporting documents - What Works to Reduce Reoffending: A Summary of the Evidence - gov.scot]
Scottish Government (2011). What Works to Reduce Reoffending: A Summary of the Evidence – [Scottish Government (2011). What Works to Reduce Reoffending: A Summary of the Evidence ]
Scottish Sentencing Council (2020). The development of cognitive and emotional maturity in adolescents and its relevance in judicial contexts. [The development of cognitive and emotional maturity in adolescents and its relevance in judicial contexts]
Sentencing Academy (2021). The Suspended Sentence Order in England and Wales. [The Suspended Sentence Order in England and Wales: September 2021 – Sentencing Academy]
Sydes, M., Eggins, E., and Mazerolle, L. (2018). What works in corrections? A review of the evaluation literature. Brisbane, QLD, Australia: Queensland Corrective Services. [What works in corrections? A review of the evaluation literature - UQ eSpace]
Tweed, E. J. , Gounari, X., Graham, L. (2021). Mental wellbeing among people in prison in Scotland: an analysis of repeat cross-sectional surveys. J Public Health (Oxf). Jun 7;43(2):e188-e195. doi: [10.1093/pubmed/fdz106]
United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) (2021). Kyoto Declaration: On Advancing Crime Prevention, Criminal Justice and the Rule of Law: Towards the Achievement of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development – [Kyoto Declaration on Advancing Crime Prevention, Criminal Justice and the Rule of Law: Towards the Achievement]
Villettaz, P., Gillieron, G. and Killias, M. (2015). The Effects on Re-offending of Custodial vs. Non-custodial Sanctions: An Updated Systematic Review of the State of Knowledge. Campbell Systematic Reviews, 11: 1-92.[https://doi.org/10.4073/csr.2015.1]
Vito, G. F., Higgins, G. E., & Tewksbury, R. (2017). The Effectiveness of Parole Supervision: Use of Propensity Score Matching to Analyze Reincarceration Rates in Kentucky. Criminal Justice Policy Review, 28(7), 627-640. [https://doi.org/10.1177/0887403415609717]
Wan, W.-Y., Poynton, S., & Weatherburn, D. (2016). Does parole supervision reduce the risk of re-offending? Australian & New Zealand Journal of Criminology, 49(4), 497-511. [https://doi.org/10.1177/0004865815585393]
Weir, K., Kilili, S., Cooper, J., Crowe, A. & Routledge, G. (2021). Checkpoint: An innovative Programme to navigate people away from the cycle of reoffending – A randomised control trial evaluation. The Police Journal: Theory, Practice and Principles. 95. 0032258X2110187. 10.1177/0032258X211018774.
Wermink, H. T., Blokland, A. A. J., Been, J., Schuyt, P. M., Tollenaar, N., & Apel, R. (2023). Estimating effects of short-term imprisonment on crime using random judge assignments. Justice Quarterly, 41(3), 317–346. [https://doi.org/10.1080/07418825.2023.2193618]
Wermink, H., Nieuwbeerta, P., Ramakers, A. A. T., de Keijser, J. W., & Dirkzwager, A. J. E. (2018). Short-Term Effects of Imprisonment Length on Recidivism in the Netherlands. Crime & Delinquency, 64(8), 1057-1093. [https://doi.org/10.1177/0011128716687290]
Williams, J. & Weatherburn, D. (2022). Can Electronic Monitoring Reduce Reoffending? Review of Economics and Statistics, 104 (2), 232–245. [Can Electronic Monitoring Reduce Reoffending? | IZA - Institute of Labor Economics]
Willis, Matthew. (2017). Bail support: A review of the literature. DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.29942.09281]
Yukhnenko D, Wolf A, Blackwood N, Fazel S (2019). Recidivism rates in individuals receiving community sentences: A systematic review. PLoS ONE 14(9): e0222495. [https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0222495
Zapryanova, M. (2020). The Effects of Time in Prison and Time on Parole on Recidivism. The Journal of Law and Economics 2020 63:4,699-727. [https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/suppl/10.1086/709585]
Contact
Email: Justice_Analysts@gov.scot