Take-up Rates of Scottish Benefits: October 2025

Child Disability Payment Take-up Analysis Update

Introduction

Last year’s publication included analysis of trends in Child Disability Payment and discussion of how estimates of eligibility and take-up rates could be approached. Robustly estimating eligibility and take-up for disability related benefits continues to be a significant challenge. There are no official estimates of take-up rates of disability benefits in the UK published by the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP), the Scottish Government or any other stakeholder.

In this year’s publication, a brief update to that analysis is presented, including an update to numbers of people in receipt of Child Disability Payment and where possible, to the potential eligibility estimates.

Eligibility Challenges

As take-up is a measure of the number of people who receive a benefit as a proportion of those who are eligible, calculating the level of benefit take-up requires an estimate of the size of the eligible population. It is more straightforward to estimate eligibility for low-income benefits, where eligibility is based on household characteristics and qualifying benefit receipt and where data is more easily accessible.

Household survey data showing the prevalence of medical conditions and disabled people in the population could be used to establish eligibility for disability benefits, however there are several reasons why this is challenging:

• Disability related questions that are currently asked in surveys may not capture all of the eligibility criteria for disability benefits.
• Social Security Scotland make person-centred decisions based on the specific circumstances of the application/review and detailed information provided. Therefore, it is not possible to precisely match those identified as disabled through surveys with those determined to be eligible for disability benefits.
• Disability is self-reported in surveys which means perceptions of disability may vary person to person and are not an objective measure of the eligible population.

Illustrative definitions of Child Disability Payment eligibility were set out last year including the merits and drawbacks of each approach and produced a wide range of eligibility ranging from between around 55,000 to 150,000 children and young people, with significant uncertainty that any definition was a precise measure of eligibility for the payment.

Trends in Disability Prevalence

Although eligibility for Child Disability Payment cannot be simply tracked to trends in disability as measured in survey data, it is reasonable to expect a link between trends in survey data and trends in eligibility for Child Disability Payment.

Figure 2 shows that according to the Family Resource Survey, the prevalence of disability among children in Scotland and England has risen substantially since before the pandemic. In 2019-20, around 7% of children in Scotland and 8% of children in England reported being disabled. By 2023-24 this had risen to around 12% of children in both Scotland and England (rounded to nearest percentage).

(2020-21 omitted due to data quality issues of survey collection during Covid)

Source: Department for Work and Pensions, Family Resources Survey 2023-24

Receipt of Child Disability Payment

Figure 3 shows there has also been steady growth in the number of children and young people in receipt of Child Disability Payment since the benefit began being paid in March 2022. This growth has been driven by both the transfer of existing Disability Living Allowance for Children (DLAc) cases from the DWP and increases in new applications. Child Disability Payment is normally available up to age 18 whereas DLAc normally ends at age 16.

Source: Social Security Scotland Child Disability Payment: statistics to 30 June 2025

The latest overall published Child Disability Payment caseload^[2] (including DLAc cases transferred from DWP) of children and young people aged 0-19 was 91,875 in June 2025^[3], of which 33% of recipients were in receipt of the care only component, 67% in receipt of both the care and mobility components, and less than 1% in receipt of only the mobility component. Children and young people aged 0-17 comprise the majority of the caseload, and for June 2025, 91,180 were in receipt of payments.

Updated Eligibility Estimates

A further challenge is aligning periods of payment receipt with measures of eligibility which can quickly become outdated when not updated regularly. This is a particular challenge where underlying trends may be driving significant and fast moving changes in populations that fall under eligibility definitions, as shown in figure 2.

Figure 3 also demonstrates that in common with increases in the number of children and young people in the UK in receipt of DLAc, Child Disability Payment may be yet to reach a “steady state”. Unlike for example Scottish Child Payment, where the number of children in receipt has been fairly stable for the past two years, there continues to be substantial growth in the number of children and young people receiving Child Disability Payment. The Scottish Fiscal Commission expect the number of children and young people in receipt of Child Disability Payment to reach around 110,000 in 2026-27 and then remain broadly stable for the following four years^[4].

In last year’s publication, 3 definitions from the 2022 census were assessed, however, given the continued increase in disability prevalence set out in figure 2 and that the census data is updated only around every 10 years (next scheduled release is 2031), this data is too infrequently updated to be used to estimate annual take-up rates of Child Disability Payment. Last year the Scottish Health Survey “limiting long-term condition” definition was deemed to be too broad in scope to represent eligibility for Child Disability Payment and that continues to be the case. It is likely that the children counted under this definition would include a substantial number who would be unlikely to qualify for either the care or mobility components of Child Disability Payment.

The Family Resources Survey measure of children who identify as having a disability appears to have less obvious flaws as an approach than the other four measures outlined. However, there is a fundamental challenge in comparing self reported data on disability with eligibility criteria for a disability benefit where award decisions are made by case managers in line with decision making guides. This could potentially be used as a broad guide to trends in eligibility and take-up for Child Disability Payment but the extent of its alignment would require further investigation.

The following page sets out updated analysis of eligibility estimates for Child Disability Payment where possible. These estimates focus on children and young people aged 0-17 given that they made up around 99% of the latest caseload statistics.

Child Disability Payment Potential Eligibility Measures

1. Family Resources Survey 2023-24

Definition: Identify as having a disability under the Equality Act 2010 core definition.

Description: This produces an eligible total of around 95,000 for ages 0 to 15 and 115,000 for ages 0 to 19. The number aged 0-17 would be somewhere within this range. Being disabled under the Equality Act 2010 core definition means “someone has a physical or mental impairment that has a 'substantial' and 'long-term' negative effect on their ability to do normal daily activities".

2. Scotland’s Census 2022, not updated again until 2031

Definition: Have a disability which limits day-to-day activities a little or a lot.

Description: This produces an eligible total of around 85,000 for ages 0 to 17 and is a similar definition to the Equality Act 2010 definition within the Family Resources Survey. This does not appear obviously too narrow or too broad, but will not be updated again until 2031 and is already around 3 years old.

Definition: Identify as having a long-term illness, disease or condition.

Description: This produces an eligible total of around 55,000 for ages 0 to 17 and describes children and young people who report having a long term illness, disease or condition that does not have to limit activities. This definition is too narrow in scope to reflect Child Disability Payment eligibility and is much lower than the most recent statistics of children and young people in receipt of Child Disability Payment (around 90,000).

Definition: Identify as having a health condition.

Description: This produces an eligible total of around 125,000 for ages 0 to 17 and describes anyone reporting a health condition. This appears too broad to reflect Child Disability Payment eligibility and likely includes a significant number of children and young people who would not be eligible for the payment.

3. Scottish Health Survey 2023

Definition: Have a limiting long-term condition

Description: This produces an estimated eligible total of around 165,000 children and young people aged 0 to 17 and is the largest total of any definition. This population is defined as having any physical or mental health condition that has or is expected to last 12 months or more so could include a significant number who would not be eligible for Child Disability Payment. This appears too broad a definition and would result in a significant over-estimate of eligibility.

Summary

The definitions set out above produce a wide range of eligibility ranging from between around 55,000 to 165,000 children and young people. It is likely the true number eligible lies somewhere within this range. The census definitions are too infrequently updated to be used to reflect eligibility for a benefit where the number of children and young people in receipt continues to increase substantially. The Scottish Health Survey definition appears too broad in scope. The Family Resources Survey offers a less obviously problematic measure, however, due to the complex nature of assessing eligibility for disability payments, significant challenges remain. However, we will continue to assess the extent this measure aligns with Child Disability Payment eligibility, and any developments in other potential measures, and will provide an update in next year’s publication.