Publication - Publication

State of the Economy: June 2018

Published: 29 Jun 2018
Directorate:
Chief Economist Directorate
Part of:
Economy
ISBN:
9781787810785

The State of the Economy report outlines recent developments in the global, UK and Scottish economies. You may need to select 'refresh' to see the graphics appear.

16 page PDF

1.7 MB

16 page PDF

1.7 MB

Contents
State of the Economy: June 2018
Scotland Summary

16 page PDF

1.7 MB

Scotland Summary

GDP growth picked-up in 2017 and continued into 2018.

  • Following a pick-up in growth in 2017, GDP grew 0.2% over the quarter in Q1 2018 and 0.8% over the year.

  • Both the Service sector and the Production sector supported growth in Q1 2018, growing 0.4% and 0.9% respectively.

  • Construction sector output contracted for the ninth consecutive quarter in Q1 2018, contracting 3.5% over the quarter.

  • Scotland attracted 116 FDI projects in 2017, rising 7% compared to 2016.

Scotland - Quarterly Output Growth and Level

Labour market continues to perform strongly in 2018.

  • Over the quarter to Feb-Apr 2018, the unemployment rate remained unchanged (4.3%), having risen slightly in the second half of 2017 from its record low of 3.8%.

  • The employment rate rose over the same period to 75.2%, with 2.64 million in employment, 18,000 higher than a year previously.

  • The inactivity rate fell over the quarter and the year to 21.4%, slightly above the UK rate of 21.0%.

Productivity growth remains weak in Q4 2017.

  • Trend growth in productivity (output per hour worked) increased by 1% in Q4 2017, however fell by 1.9% on a rolling annual basis.

  • The fall in productivity over the year reflects that growth in hours worked (2.7%) outpaced GVA growth (0.8%).

Scotland - Labour Market

GDP growth outlook remains subdued for 2018 and 2019.

  • Business surveys signal that business optimism has held up into the start of 2018, with firms’ outlook for output and activity remaining broadly optimistic.

  • Scottish consumer sentiment remained in negative territory in Q2 2018 (-2.4) having weakened over the quarter.

  • Independent GDP growth forecasts for 2018 range between 0.7% and 1.3%, strengthening slightly to between 0.8% and 1.6% for 2019.

Scotland - Labour Productivity Growth

Scottish Consumer Sentiment Indicator


Contact