Draft Environment Strategy: strategic environmental assessment

Chapter 4: Environmental Baseline

4.1 Schedule 3 of the 2005 Act requires information to be provided on:

• The relevant aspects of the current state of the environment and the likely evolution thereof without implementation of the plan or programme.
• The environmental characteristics of areas likely to be significantly affected.
• Any existing environmental problems which are relevant to the plan or programme including, in particular, those relating to any areas of a particular environmental importance, such as areas designated pursuant to Council Directives 79/409/EEC on the conservation of wild birds and Council Directive 92/43/EEC on the conservation of natural habitats and of wild flora and fauna (as last amended by Council Directive 97/62/EC).

4.2 For each environmental topic, baseline data has been collated to provide an understanding of the environment and key environmental risks and opportunities. The suggested environmental baseline covers the whole of Scotland. Presenting the baseline at national level allows the SEA to reflect on the interaction of the Draft Environment Strategy with wider environmental trends.

4.3 Current trends and pressures have been explored for each topic scoped into the assessment, and information has been drawn from a range of sources including the Scottish Government, Nature Scot, Historic Environment Scotland (HES), the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA), and Scotland’s Environment Web, amongst others. The Draft Environment Strategy has been assessed against this baseline to provide an indication of the type and significance of environmental effects that could arise.

4.4 SEA Guidance recognises that data gaps will exist but suggests that, where baseline information is unavailable or unsatisfactory, authorities should consider how it will affect their assessments and determine how to improve it for use in the assessment of future plans. Where there are data gaps in the baseline and forthcoming reports, these are highlighted in the text. The collection and analysis of baseline data is regarded as a continual and evolving process, given that information can change or be updated on a regular basis. Relevant baseline information will be updated during the SEA process as and when data is published.

4.5 The topic of ‘climatic factors’ typically covers both climate change mitigation and adaptation. Due to the focus of Environment Strategy on adaptation, this is reflected within each SEA topic.

4.6 The section below identifies relevant national data sources that have been used to inform the environmental baseline.

Biodiversity, flora and fauna

Overview of baseline

4.7 Scotland’s rich and varied landscapes and habitats have been shaped by underlying rocks, soils and landforms, seas and the Scottish weather. Scotland is home to internationally important habitats including for example, more than 30,000 freshwater lochs and blanket bog, which covers 23% of our land area. However, though Scotland’s landscapes are rich and varied it is still one of the most nature depleted countries in the world. The 2023 Sate of Nature report outlines that there has been a 15% average decrease of Scottish wildlife since 1994, 49% decline in Scotland’s seabirds between 1886-2019, 47% decrease in flowering plant distribution since 1970 and that 11% of species in Scotland are threatened with extinction. Humanity has caused the loss of 83% of all wild mammals and half of all plants^[47].

4.8 Biodiversity is commonly used as a measure of the health of an ecosystem and helps to provide the ecosystems services that are the basis of life including the regulation of air and water, soil formation, nutrient cycling, flood regulation and pollination, amongst many others^[48]. Biodiversity, flora, and fauna is also closely linked with other environmental topics, particularly soil and water, which help to support an incredible diversity of life across Scotland and in its surrounding waters.

4.9 As of 2024, Scotland’s protected areas included 243 Special Areas of Conservation (SACs)^[49], 162 Special Protection Areas (SPAs)^[50], 51 Ramsar sites^[51] and two Biosphere Reserves^[52]. There are further national level designations including 1,422 Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSIs)^[53], 247 Marine Protected Areas^[54], and two National Parks (Loch Lomond and the Trossachs National Park and Cairngorms National Park). The Scottish Government has proposed a new National Park in Galloway (including parts of South and East Ayrshire), which is undergoing formal consultation.

4.10 The Scottish Biodiversity List^[55] is a list of animals, plants and habitats that Scottish Ministers consider to be of principal importance for biodiversity conservation in Scotland. This includes 42 terrestrial habitats, 1,948 terrestrial species, 20 marine habitats and 159 marine species. By May 2024, the proportion of nationally protected nature sites reported as being in a “favourable” condition decreased by 0.9% in the last year from 76.4% to 75.6%. this represents a stable trend since the current protocols were established in 2007 (-0.4% from 76.0%)^[56].

4.11 Areas of biodiversity value are not only found within this network of designated sites and many undesignated areas of Scotland also contain habitats and species that have important functions and roles. For example, urban greenspace such as public and private gardens, parks, woodlands, recreational grounds, green corridors, allotments and community growing spaces can provide habitats and ecosystems which are valuable to wildlife^[57]. Scotland’s’ Nature Network’ is defined as a network which connects nature-rich sites through a series of suitable habitat, habitat corridors and stepping-stones. One of the main purposes of the Nature Network is ecological connectivity to allow species to adapt to pressures such as climate change^[58].

4.12 Scotland has a number of varied and ecologically complex landscapes and habitats, ranging from raised bog to native and ancient woodland, and is a home to a wide range of species.

4.13 Scotland has 90% of the high mountain habitat in the UK which accommodates some of the best examples of near-natural habitats and wildlife in the northern and remote parts of Europe. The uplands comprise bog and rough grassland, heather moorland, bracken, fen, marsh and swamp, as well as inland rock and montane habitat^[59].

4.14 As of March 2024, 75.6% of natural features in Scotland are in favourable condition. 77.9% of upland natural features are in favourable condition, however this has decreased by 2.5 percentage points since 2023^[60].

4.15 Woodlands and forests cover 1.4 million hectares or 18% of Scotland’s land area and support a wide range of important flora and fauna diversity with most rare and threatened species in Scotland found in and around semi-natural woodland. In relation to wildlife, this habitat type is in a moderately good condition with predicted improvement in the future^[61].

4.16 Wetlands, including peatlands, can be found across Scotland and are a key provider of environmental services such as carbon sequestration and water purification. Scotland’s peatlands store approximately 1,600 million tonnes of carbon. As of March 2024, 78.6% of the wetlands which fall within protected sites are in favourable condition, however this has fallen by 0.3 percentage points since 2023^[62].

Evolution of baseline – Pressure, trends and key points

4.17 Biodiversity loss has been well documented over the last 50 years, and today there is a range of pressures with the potential to impact on Scotland’s wildlife and biodiversity. Key issues include climate change, changing use of sea and land, direct exploitation of organisms, invasive non-native species and pollution^[63].

4.18 The effects of a changing climate already observed in Scotland's nature indicate some of the likely future effects. Warming has already caused earlier timing of spring events such as leaf unfolding, bird migration and egg laying. Where species adapt at different speeds this may impact on their populations. Shifts in ranges in plant and animal species have been recorded, particularly northwards, such as the comma butterfly expanding into south east and central Scotland. Movements may also occur up hillsides, and species already confined to high mountains in Scotland may be lost as conditions become unsuitable or other species replace them. In the seas, the ranges of some plankton and fish abundance are moving, with implications for populations of sea birds and other marine species. Effects on biodiversity are likely to be severe with species potentially becoming extinct in Scotland as a result of their being unable to adapt to a rapidly changing environment. There will also be physical effects on habitats, including loss of saltmarsh and machair to coastal erosion, loss of salmon spawning beds to flash floods, and peat erosion from drying out of wetlands. There will be new risks from non-native species including pests and diseases^[64]. Indirect impacts may also arise through climate change adaptation and the action taken in sectors such as renewable energy (e.g. onshore and offshore wind, solar, hydro-power, hydrogen etc.), agriculture, forestry, planning, water and coastal management in the face of a changing climate^[65].

4.19 Land use intensification, modification and overgrazing can lead to a reduction of diversity, quality and connectivity of landscapes and habitats. Across the uplands this is generally from increased grazing pressure and previously, forestry. In the lowlands, it is primarily via agricultural intensification, and more recently changes in grazing. Housing development is also a significant localised pressure in some parts of Scotland which is contributing to habitat loss and disturbance to species.

4.20 Pollution from industry, agriculture and road traffic also impacts on waterways, uplands, air quality and sensitive habitats. Marine exploitation is also a key pressure for biodiversity as some commercial fisheries and fishing have profoundly changed the abundance and resilience of certain species, such as cod, and altered marine environments.

Likely evolution without implementation of the plan

4.21 The Scottish Government has policies to address these challenges, but without the implementation of the Draft Environment Strategy these will be less successful as opportunities for more effective implementation and coordination of policy will be lost. The following risks and threats to biodiversity from the range of drivers of biodiversity are likely to continue to be experienced:

• Risks to species and habitats from pests, pathogens and invasive species.
• Risks to species and habitats from pollution and exploitation
• Loss of species and habitats from wildfires, water scarcity, and flooding from changing climatic conditions and extreme weather events.
• Shifts in species movements and loss of species unable to adapt to a rapidly changing environment.

Population and human health

Overview of baseline

4.22 The population of Scotland was estimated to be 5.49 million people in 2023. This is the highest Scotland’s population has ever been. The population of Scotland grew by 43,100 people (0.79%) in the last year. The increase in population is mainly as a result of inward migration, particularly to Scotland’s cities. Without migration the population of Scotland would have decreased by around 19,100 in the last year.^[66].

4.23 The population of Scotland is aging with an estimated 20.3% aged 65 and over), which is an increase of 16.1% since 2003^[67]. Life expectancy has improved over the last 40 years, however in the last 10 years improvements have stalled and most recently have started to reverse. The recent fall was mainly due to COVID-19^[68].

4.24 Projections forecast that the population will continue to rise to around 5.53 million in mid-2033. However, it is then projected to fall by 0.6% to 5.49 million by mid-2045. Scotland’s population is projected to age with the number of people aged 65 and over projected to grow by nearly a third by mid-2045. The number of children is projected to fall by nearly a fifth. More people are projected to move to Scotland than leave each year. However, there are projected to be more deaths than births each year, and the gap between births and deaths is projected to widen. Over time, this will outweigh the growth from migration^[69].

4.25 Approximately 91% of Scotland’s people live in urban areas, which accounts for just 2.3% of Scotland’s land surface^[70]. Most of the population and industry is concentrated in highly urbanised areas in the Central Belt and on the east coast, and primarily in four key city regions (Aberdeen, Dundee, Edinburgh, and Glasgow) and several smaller cities and towns (e.g. Ayr, Inverness, Perth and Stirling). There is significant variation between areas such as the Highlands and Islands and some areas in the Southern Uplands versus the more densely populated areas. Around 12.4% of the population live in small towns of less than 10,000 people; of these, around 70% are located within a 30-minute drive of large urban settlements, with the other 30% located more remotely^[71].

4.26 The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation^[72] ranks small areas (data zones) in Scotland from the most deprived to the least deprived. It analyses data from several indicators across the domains of income, employment, health, education, skills and training, housing, geographic access and crime. Key findings from the 2020 Index show that 14 areas have been consistently among the 5% most deprived in Scotland since the 2004 Index of Multiple Deprivation. Of these, nine were in Glasgow City with the remainder located in Inverclyde, Renfrewshire, Highland, North Lanarkshire and North Ayrshire. Six council areas now have a larger share of the 20% most deprived data zones in Scotland compared to 2016, with the largest increases observed in Aberdeen City, North Lanarkshire, Moray, East Lothian, Highland and North Ayrshire^[73].

4.27 Human health is dependent on a number of environmental factors, including access to services such as health and education, employment, and good quality outdoor recreation facilities. A high-quality environment with good air, soil, and water quality is an important contributor to good health and well-being. Local access to good quality green space is a key contributor, as nature provides numerous health benefits. Many areas of deprivation have the lowest proportion of quality green space, highlighting the importance of improving availability, access, and quality of greenspaces for both people and nature. Homes also need adequate heating and ventilation. Climate change poses a wide range of potential effects on human health. Direct impacts may include overheating or dampness within properties or the impacts of flooding, severe weather events, or wildfire. Some effects may be beneficial, such as milder winters positively affecting health and reducing cold-related service disruptions.

4.28 It is expected that the potential risks and benefits of climate change to population and health will be unevenly distributed. For example, areas of dense urban development will be more at risk of surface water flooding and summer heat stress. Remote coastal communities may be more vulnerable to disruption to services from extreme weather events. In addition, the effects may have the greatest impact on vulnerable people. Negative health effects are likely to be disproportionately severe in areas of high deprivation because of the reduced ability of individuals and communities in these areas to prepare, respond and recover. The elderly population are also less resilient to climate change and associated weather events.

4.29 Fuel poverty is also linked to health issues. In 2024, approximately 31% of households are currently living in fuel poverty and 20% of households are living in extreme fuel poverty^[74]. The statutory targets set by the Fuel Poverty Act 2019 are that by the end of 2040, as far as reasonably possible no household in Scotland is in fuel poverty and, in any event no more than 5% of households will be in fuel poverty and no more than 1% of households will be in extreme fuel poverty^[75].

4.30 Greenspace has substantial environmental and health impacts, but also links to positive community aspects, such as community cohesion, social connectedness and community resilience. Being able to access high quality greenspace can improve the health, wellbeing and confidence of people and communities as well as creating a sense of place. 65.4% of adults lived within a 5-minute walk of their nearest greenspace in 2016, compared to 67.2% in 2015^[76]. People living in the most deprived areas are less likely to live within a 5-minute walk of their nearest greenspace than those in less deprived areas.

4.31 Key findings from the 2022 Scottish Health Survey report^[77] found that 70% of people described their general health as ‘very good’ or ‘good’ which has decreased since 2021 (75%). In 2022, the mean Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Wellbeing Scale (WEMWBS) score for all adults was 47.0, a decrease from the mean of 48.6 recorded in 2021 and outside the range observed prior to 2021 (49.4– 50.0). In 2022, no significant difference was recorded between men (47.7) and women (46.5). In 2022, two-thirds of adults were overweight (67%), with men showing higher prevalence of being overweight than women. In 2022, 65% of adults undertook at least 150 minutes of moderate physical activity, 75 minutes vigorous physical activity, or an equivalent combination per week. This is within the range of 62-66% recorded between 2012 and 2019, but lower than the proportion recorded in 2021 (69%). Adults in the most deprived areas were more likely to have very low activity levels (57%) than those in the least deprived areas (73%).

4.32 Scotland has achieved progressively cleaner air in recent years via increasingly strict control of industrial emissions, tighter fuel and emissions standards for road vehicles and control of smoke from domestic properties. However, even at these lower levels, air pollution still causes harm to human health and the environment.

4.33 Ill health caused by air pollution is a health inequalities issue as it disproportionately affects the most vulnerable members of society, including the very young, the elderly, people with existing medical conditions and those living in deprived urban areas and deprived circumstances. While air quality is generally good in Scotland, improvements are required to reduce the adverse effects caused by air pollution particularly in urban areas. Certain pollution hotspots in Scotland have been declared Air Quality Management Areas (AQMAs). With a reduction in large-scale industry, the influence of transport, agriculture and other non-industrial sources continue to be significant sources of air pollution. Health effects range from chronic (long-term) disease and premature death to lesser symptoms affecting a large percentage of the population and contributing to greater use of medication, more days of restricted activity, more requirements for medical care. Air quality as well as nuisances such as odour, dust and noise are affected by human activities including transport, energy generation, industry, waste management, construction and agriculture, and through natural sources. This issue is discussed further in ‘Air and climate change mitigation’.

4.34 Water quality has seen significant improvement over the last 25 years and the majority of surface and ground waters are in good or high overall condition and continue to improve. However, a wide range of problems exist locally including risks to human health from flood events and poor quality private water supplies. This issue is discussed further in ‘Water’.

4.35 The National Flood Risk Assessment 2018^[78] identified that there are around 284,000 homes, businesses and services across Scotland at risk of flooding from rivers, surface water and the sea, and by 2080 climate change will increase the numbers at risk by an additional 110,000 properties. This issue is discussed further in ‘Flood risk and climate change adaptation’.

Evolution of baseline – Pressures, trends and key points

4.36 Air quality is important for both short and long-term human health. In general, healthy people may not suffer from any serious health effects from exposure to the levels of pollution commonly experienced in urban environments. However, continual exposure can cause harm over the long term, and those with pre-existing health conditions such as heart disease, lung conditions, and asthma can be adversely impacted by exposure to air pollutants^[79]. Research has shown that air pollution is one of the largest environmental risks to public health in the UK, reducing average life expectancy and often contributing to premature deaths^[80]. Activities that generate air pollutants have been considered under the topic of Air Quality.

4.37 Transport is currently the most significant source contributing to poor air quality in urban areas^[81] and emissions from transport have only declined by 15.9% since 1990^[82]. As in previous years, the car was the most popular mode of transport in 2022, with 55% of journeys made as a car driver. ^[83]. Due to several common sources, most notably road traffic in urban areas, there is also a close relationship between air quality and environmental noise^[84].

4.38 Pressures on water quality which can affect human health is primarily caused by increases in environmental pollutants from human activities, aquaculture, intensive agriculture and urbanisation.

4.39 Flooding can have significant environmental impacts and can also affect people, communities and businesses^[85]. When floods occur, they disrupt day-to-day lives and their impacts can be long lasting. Climate change is expected to increase the risk of flooding in coming years, and it also brings additional risks to human health posed by changes to air quality and rising temperatures^[86].

4.40 The potential risks and benefits of climate change on population and health will not be evenly spread. For example, pockets of dense urban development will be more at risk of surface water flooding and summer heat stress. In addition, the effects to human health from climate change may have the greatest impact on vulnerable people. Negative health effects are likely to be disproportionately severe in areas of high deprivation because of the reduced ability of individuals and communities in these areas to prepare, respond and recover^[87]. Impacts on infrastructure and the services which people rely on, including impacts on the transport, water, communications and energy networks can have significant impacts on health and wellbeing.

Likely evolution without implementation of the plan

4.41 The Scottish Government has policies to address these challenges, but without the implementation of the Draft Environment Strategy these will be less successful as opportunities for more effective implementation and coordination of policy will be lost. Without the implementation of a coherent Environment Strategy, impacts of climate change combined with environmental degradation on population and human health are likely to increase further, through both social and economic impacts:

• Increased risks to communities from disruption to infrastructure and transport networks
• Increased risks from exposure to high temperatures
• Increased risks to communities from flood events
• Increased impacts on coastal communities and businesses due to sea level rise, coastal flooding and erosion
• Impacts on food safety and security.

Climatic factors

4.42 Air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions are intrinsically linked as they both arise from broadly the same sources, notably transport, agriculture and energy generation.

Overview of baseline

Greenhouse gas emissions

4.43 The landmark 2015 Paris Agreement^[88] gave rise to international consensus to keep global warming to “well below 2oC above pre-industrial levels” while “pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5oC”. However, the most recently released report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicates that the world may breach the limit sooner than anticipated with the threshold being crossed permanently by the middle of the next decade due to human fossil fuel emissions^[89].

4.44 Scotland declared a Climate Emergency in 2019 and is acting accordingly to achieve net zero emissions of all greenhouse gases (GHGs) by 2045^[90]

Scottish Greenhouse Gas Statistics 2022 (released 2024)  ^[91]

• Source emissions of GHGs were 40.6 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e), a decrease of 0.1% from 2021.
• The GHG Account reduced by 50.1% between 1990 and 2022^[92].

4.45 In 2022, Scotland’s total emissions of the seven GHGs^[93] were estimated to be 40.6 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e), remaining almost unchanged from 2021, with a slight reduction of just 0.1%^[94]. Despite this overall stability in net emissions between 2021 and 2022, significant sectoral fluctuations occurred. The buildings and product use sector saw a substantial decrease of 1.2 MtCO2e, largely due to high fuel prices and mild temperatures early in 2022. Smaller reductions were observed in Agriculture (-0.3 MtCO2e) and Industry (-0.1 MtCO2e). However, these declines were nearly offset by emission increases in other sectors. International aviation and shipping emissions rose by 0.7 MtCO2e, and Domestic transport by 0.3 MtCO2e, both primarily linked to the recovery from COVID-related transport restrictions. Emissions from Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) and Electricity supply each increased by 0.2 MtCO2e, while Fuel supply emissions rose marginally by 0.1 MtCO2e, with a slight increase in waste emissions as well. A 50.1% reduction in estimated GHG emissions between 1990 and 2022 was also reported. The most significant contributor to this overall reduction was electricity supply emissions (such as power stations), with a reduction of 13.0 MtCO2e (88.1%). This was followed by reductions in emissions from industrial emissions of 7.2 MtCO2e (56.8%), from ‘Land use, land use change and forestry’ (LULUCF) of 5.8 MtCO2e and a reduction in emissions in waste management emissions (such as landfill) by 4.9 MtCO2e (75.4% reduction) since 1990^[95].

4.46 Scotland’s soils and peatlands are the biggest terrestrial store of carbon in Scotland with peatlands alone holding around 140 years’ worth of Scotland’s total annual greenhouse gas emissions^[96]. Furthermore, Scotland’s seas contain a wealth of blue carbon habitats such as saltmarshes, seagrass beds, kelp forests, maerl beds and biogenic reefs.

Climate change risks

4.47 The Third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Summary for Scotland^[97] identifies the following risks requiring the most urgent action:

• The impacts of climate change on the natural environment, including terrestrial, freshwater, coastal and marine species, forests and agriculture.
• An increase in the range, quantities and consequences of pests, pathogens and invasive species, negatively affecting terrestrial, freshwater and marine priority habitats species, forestry and agriculture.
• The risk of climate change impacts, especially more frequent flooding and coastal erosion, causing damage to our infrastructure services, including energy, transport, water and Information and Communication Technologies (ICT).
• The impact of extreme temperatures, high winds and lightning on the transport network.
• The impact of increasing high temperatures on people’s health and wellbeing and changes in household energy demand due to seasonal temperature changes.
• Increased severity and frequency of flooding of homes, communities and businesses.
• The viability of coastal communities and the impact on coastal businesses due to sea level rise, coastal flooding and erosion.
• Damage to our cultural heritage assets as a result of temperature, precipitation, groundwater and landscape changes.
• Impacts internationally that may affect the UK, such as risks to food availability, safety and security, risks to international law and governance from climate change that will affect the UK, international trade routes, public health and the multiplication of risks across systems and geographies.

Evolution of baseline – Pressure, trends and key points

Greenhouse gas emissions

4.48 Heating makes up approximately half of Scotland’s energy consumption (48.2%) compared to transport (27.6%) and electricity (21.1%) making up approximately a quarter each^[98]. A breakdown of electricity and heat consumption by sector shows that three-fifths of is accounted for by the industrial and commercial sectors and two-fifths consumed domestically. Energy consumption in transport makes up approximately a third of all Scottish consumption (41.3 TWh). It has increased by 6.2% from 2021 and decreased by 1.1% from the 2005-07 baseline. Energy consumption in industry is next largest at 39.6 TWh) and has decreased by 26.3% from the 2005-07 baseline, and 6.6% up from 2021^[99]. Energy consumption in the domestic sector is at 37.4 TWh, having decreased 27.8% from 2005-07. This may reflect improvements in energy efficiency in the domestic building stock in this time. Energy consumption in the commercial sector fell by 7.6% from the baseline to 21.7 TWh in 2022^[100].

4.49 In 2022, renewable electricity generation was equivalent to approximately 113% of Scotland’s gross electricity consumption. This is the highest level recorded to date, representing a 26 percentage point increase compared to 2021^[101]. In 2022, most of Scotland's renewable electricity—61.5%—was generated from onshore wind. This sector has grown rapidly, more than quadrupling between 2009 and 2022, and will continue to play a key role with 10.3 GW of projects in development. ^[102]. In the first half of 2024, Scotland generated 18,084GWh of renewable electricity, up 13.7% on the same point in 2023. Renewable electricity capacity has been growing steadily, having increased by 5% from June 2023 to 15.6 GW in June 2024^[103].

4.50 In the first half of 2024, 76.4% of all renewable electricity generated in Scotland was from wind. Hydro is Scotland’s second highest source of renewable generation, while solar capacity has increased rapidly in the first half of this decade bioenergy and energy from waste accounts for 6.9% and whilst the current capacity of wave and tidal is considered to be relatively small, technology is developing^[104].

4.51 As Scotland’s energy mix changes over the next few years, the electricity transmission network (grid) that supports the balance between energy generation and demand will change significantly. Infrastructure will play a key role in ensuring security of supply and decarbonising our energy systems in the most cost effective, affordable way^[105].

4.52 In 2022-23, public transport journeys increased by 34%, with 76% of journeys made by bus, 16% by rail, 5% by air, and 2% by ferry. Road traffic also rose during this period, with overall road traffic increasing by 9% and car traffic by 11%, though both remain below pre-pandemic levels^[106].

Effects of climate change

4.53 The effects of previous, current and future greenhouse gas emissions mean that continuing climate change is now a certainty. The extent of the effects of climate change will vary by location and projections indicate that climate change trends observed over the last century will continue and intensify over the coming decades. Key long-term climate change trends for Scotland are that weather may become more variable, typical summers will be hotter and drier, winter and autumn will be milder and wetter and sea levels will continue to rise^[107] and this will have an impact on coastal landscapes. Increases in summer heat waves, extreme temperatures and drought, as well as an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, are also expected^[108]. Urban areas in particular will be exposed to extreme heat conditions^[109].

4.54 Climate change has been identified as a primary pressure on many of the SEA topic areas (i.e. soil, water, biodiversity, cultural heritage and the historic environment). These pressures and predicted impacts have been discussed further under the individual SEA topics. The complex interaction between air quality and climate change has also been considered under the SEA topic of “Air Quality”.

Carbon stores and sinks

4.55 Scotland’s soils and peatlands are the biggest terrestrial store of carbon with peatlands alone holding around 3,000 megatonnes tonnes of carbon^[110]; 60 times more than carbon stored by trees and other vegetation^[111]. Inshore and offshore waters also store a significant resource of blue carbon, with an estimated 18 million tonnes of organic carbon stored in the top 10 cm of sediments across Scotland’s seas^[112]. Stocks of carbon within the habitats and surface sediments of offshore Marine Protected Areas are estimated at 9.4 Mt organic carbon and 47.8 Mt inorganic carbon^[113].

Likely evolution without implementation of the plan

4.56 The Scottish Government has policies to address these challenges, but without the implementation of the Draft Environment Strategy these will be less effective as opportunities for more effective implementation and coordination of policy will be lost. There will be continued action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across all sectors, however there will be increasing exposure to climate risks from past, present and future emissions in the absence of co-ordinated action. Natural carbon stores in terms of soils and vegetation can emit more carbon in the absence of appropriate adaptation measures. Uncoordinated and unplanned adaptation can further contribute to emissions as a result of increased demand for energy for cooling or materials required to remediate the impacts of climate change.

Air quality

Overview of baseline

4.57 The main air pollutants are nitrogen oxides (NOx), particulate matter (PMx), sulphur dioxide (SO2), ammonia (NH3), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and ozone (O3). Sulphur dioxide, oxides of nitrogen, particulates, and low-level ozone are generally considered to be of most importance in relation to human health and the environment^[114].

4.58 In towns and cities, urban woodlands, forests and trees not only improve the general public realm but also deliver cooling, shade, better air quality and absorb CO2 emissions.

Evolution of baseline – Pressure, trends and key points

4.59 Air quality in Scotland has improved considerably over the last few decades. Between 2005 and 2021 there were decreases of 60% for carbon monoxide (CO), 59% for nitrogen oxides (NOx), 18% for non-methane volatile organic compounds, 41% for fine particulate matter (PM10) and 91% for SO2  ^[115]. However, air pollution is still estimated to reduce the life expectancy of every person in the UK by an average of 7–8 months^[116] and there are some areas of towns and cities where air quality has been identified as a concern.

4.60 Section 83(1) of the Environmental Act 1995^[117] sets out a requirement that where air quality objectives are not being met or are unlikely to be met within the relevant period, Local Authorities must designate an Air Quality Management Area (AQMA). In Scotland, 34 AQMAs are currently declared, with 14 of Scotland’s 32 Local Authorities having declared at least one^[118]. The majority of these are in urban areas as a result of NOx alone or in combination with PM10 levels, and primarily as a result of traffic emissions^[119].

4.61 Air pollution often originates from the same activities that contribute to climate change; notably transport, agriculture and energy generation. Transport is the most significant source contributing to poor air quality in urban areas^[120]. While measures such as using alternative fuels sources and encouraging active travel can help improve air quality in addition to reducing GHG emissions, some measures aimed at reducing the impacts of climate change can also have a negative impact on air quality. For example, while emissions from well operated and well-maintained modern biomass boilers are generally lower than the coal equivalent, the burning of biomass feedstock does emit air pollutants such as particulates^[121].

4.62 Cleaner air provides multiple benefits and actions taken, such as a shift towards low or zero emissions transport and energy sources, should provide mutual benefits for both air quality and climate change^[122].

Likely evolution without implementation of the plan

4.63 The Scottish Government has policies to address these challenges, but without the implementation of the Draft Environment Strategy these will be less effective as opportunities for more effective implementation and coordination of policy will be lost. The increase in temperature associated with climate change will impact on air quality in a number of ways. For example, this could lead to increases in photochemical smog. Drought episodes can also lead to emissions of volatile organic compounds from vegetation^[123]. Furthermore, increased wildfires could also impact on air quality, including from transboundary events. In the absence of measures to address these sources of air pollutants, there are likely to be increased impacts on both human health and the natural environment.

Soil

Overview of baseline

4.64 Soil is a non-renewable resource and is fundamentally one of Scotland’s most important assets^[124]. It supports a wide range of natural processes and underpins much of our natural environment, helping to provide a wide range of environmental, economic and societal benefits. For example, soil provides the basis for food, controls and regulates environmental interactions such as regulating the flow and quality of water and providing a platform for buildings and roads. There is an intrinsic relationship between soil health and other environmental topics; biodiversity, water and air quality in particular. For example, soil erosion is one of the main contributors to diffuse water pollution^[125].

4.65 Scotland’s peatlands play a key role in regulating atmospheric pollutants, reducing flooding and benefitting biodiversity and due to this, have been afforded special protection through Scotland’s National Peatland Plan^[126]. Peatlands are of particular importance for mitigating climate change by acting as carbon ‘sinks’. If peatlands are in good condition, they have the ability to deposit and continually sequester new carbon in peat-forming vegetation. However, degraded soils can act as a net carbon emitter. Peatlands in Scotland extend over large areas of Scottish uplands but are most extensive in the north and west in areas with gentle slopes and poor drainage^[127]. Blanket bog is the most extensive semi-natural habitat in Scotland covering around 23% of the land area^[128]. Approximately 1.6 billion tonnes of the carbon stored in Scottish soils is within peat^[129]. As with all soils, peats are at risk from land use change and the effects of climate change, and their loss or degradation (and the associated loss of carbon) has the potential to be a significant contributor to Scotland’s greenhouse gas emissions^[130]. If Scotland lost all of the carbon stored in its peat soils as CO2, it would be the equivalent of more than 120 times Scotland's annual greenhouse gas emissions. It is estimated that over 80% of Scotland’s peatlands are degraded^[131]. Land use change and management practices can impact significantly on soil carbon stores and sequestration. Energy infrastructure also poses a significant risk to soil.

4.66 Degraded soils encompass more than just peatlands; they include a wide range of soil types that have suffered from erosion, compaction, contamination, or loss of organic matter. Healthy soils are vital for delivering multiple benefits, including supporting biodiversity, attenuating floods, reducing the impacts of droughts, and storing and sequestering carbon. However, the continuation and expansion of intense agricultural practices exacerbate soil degradation, leading to increased erosion, loss of carbon storage capacity, diminished biodiversity within the soil, and a reduced ability to sequester carbon effectively. The Environmental Standards Scotland report on risks to Scotland’s soils^[132] highlights a strategic gap in soil management, underscoring the need for comprehensive action to protect Scotland's soils.

4.67 The Land Capability for Agriculture (LCA) classification^[133] is used to rank land on the basis of its potential productivity and cropping flexibility. Land suitable for supporting improved grassland and rough grazing extends through the Southern Uplands, northwest Highlands and Islands. Higher quality agricultural land suitable for crops is distributed throughout the Lothians, Fife, Tayside and the eastern Scottish Borders through to Ayrshire, the Clyde Valley, parts of Dumfries and Galloway and the north east of Scotland including the coastal areas around the Moray and Cromarty Firths.

4.68 The Scottish Vacant and Derelict Land Survey identifies 9,111 hectares of vacant and derelict land in 2023, the amount has fallen by more than a quarter (28%) since 2016. In Scotland 27% of the population are estimated to live within 500 meters of a derelict site, although there are regional differences. In Na h-Eileanan Siar none of the population lives within 500 metres of a derelict site whilst this is 69% in North Lanarkshire^[134].

4.69 There are around 895 important rock and landform sites in Scotland of which approximately 75% are protected as notified Earth science features in SSSIs; their condition is monitored under NatureScot’s site monitoring programme^[135]. Furthermore, Edinburgh, West Lothian, East Dunbartonshire, Glasgow and East Lothian have completed local geodiversity audits, which note geodiversity resources and provide information about them^[136].

Evolution of baseline – Pressure, trends and key points

4.70 Climate change and loss of organic matter pose significant threats to Scottish soils, with both likely to affect soil function, including loss of soil carbon. The loss of valued soils in particular has the potential for national impacts which will be difficult to reverse. In the case of climate change, these impacts have the potential to be felt on a global scale^[137]. As such, the management and use of these resources can affect the amount of CO2 that is held or released.

4.71 Changes in land use and land management practices are also key pressures on soil. These include activities such as energy infrastructure, transport and development, including road building and the expansion of agriculture and forestry^[138]. In Scotland, the percentage of land affected by soil sealing increased between 2009 and 2019 from 1.5% to 1.9%. There is some regional variation with the Clyde and Forth regions having the highest percentage of land affected by soil sealing at 5% and the West Highland and Argyll regions experiencing below 1%. It is estimated that 1,400 hectares of Scottish land is sealed every year^[139].

4.72 Soil contamination can also arise from many causes, including atmospheric deposition, agriculture and forestry operations, mining and historic land contamination, and can impact on soil function and biodiversity^[140].

4.73 Threats from erosion are of localised significance, however, they can also lead to loss of important functions. Changes in vegetation also alter soil biodiversity which can significantly affect soil as a habitat and the functions it sustains.

4.74 The percentage of vacant and derelict land throughout Scotland has been steadily decreasing since 2009.

Likely evolution without implementation of the plan

4.75 The Scottish Government has policies to address these challenges, but without the implementation of the Draft Environment Strategy these will be less effective as opportunities for more effective implementation and coordination of policy will be lost. Adverse effects on soil by land use and climate change will continue (including seasonal aridity and wetness), exacerbating soil compaction, erosion and flooding. Opportunities to restore degraded carbon stores, particularly peatlands, may not be fully realised.

Water

Overview of baseline

4.76 Scotland’s water provides a wide range of benefits that support our health and prosperity, such as the provision of drinking water and as a resource for use in agriculture and industry^[141]. It can also be used as an energy source through hydro-power schemes, tidal and wave energy, and hydrogen technologies. These water resources also support a rich diversity of habitats and species, attract tourism, promote recreation and provide for the sustainable growth of the economy^[142].

4.77 In recent decades, significant improvements to water quality in many rivers, canals, and estuaries have been observed alongside significant reductions in pollution^[143]. Most of Scotland’s seas, coasts, and estuaries are in good or excellent condition; however, some localised areas of concern remain. Nearly half of rivers in Scotland are now in good condition or better and almost two thirds of lochs surveyed were found to be in good or high condition^[144].

4.78 Scotland’s groundwater is a valuable asset for many, particularly rural communities where it provides most of the private drinking water (75%)^[145]. Agriculture and the legacy of industrial activity are the main causes of regional-scale groundwater problems, whereas inadequate construction of private water supplies and inappropriate management of wastes can create localised problems^[146].

4.79 Changes in precipitation including drought can impact on water availability, with negative effects on communities, business and industry and habitats. Low flow conditions can concentrate pollutants and increased water temperatures can reach levels which cause fish mortality.

4.80 Large quantities of goods are imported into the UK, for example, 3,191 billion EUR of textile and clothing was imported in 2023^[147]. These require significant quantities of water in their production with a single cotton t-shirt requiring 2,700 litres of fresh water^[148].

Flooding

4.81 It is predicted that the greatest direct climate change-related threats for the UK are large increases in flood risk, exposure to high temperatures and heat waves; shortages in the public water supply and for agriculture, energy production and industry; substantial risks to UK wildlife and natural ecosystems, risks to domestic and international food production and trade^[149]. Flood risk can arise from rivers, surface water, ground water or coastal flooding^[150]:

• River (fluvial) flooding - this occurs when the water draining from the surrounding land exceeds the capacity of the watercourse.
• Coastal flooding – is caused by high sea levels, waves overtopping defences or the inundation of low-lying land at the coasts or in estuaries. Coastal flooding is often linked to coastal erosion.
• Surface water (pluvial) flooding - is caused when rainfall water ponds or flows over the ground before it enters a natural or man-made drainage system or watercourse; or when water cannot enter the drainage system because the system is already full to capacity.
• Groundwater flooding - this occurs when water levels in the ground rise above surface levels.
• Sewer flooding - this occurs when combined sewers are overwhelmed by heavy rainfall. Sewer flooding is often closely linked to surface water flooding, and may contain untreated foul water.

4.82 Flood risk resulting from failure of infrastructure, such as dams or canal embankments, can also be exacerbated as a result of climate change, as exemplified by the Union Canal breach of 2020.

4.83 Coastal infrastructure is particularly vulnerable to coastal flooding. Scotland has £18bn of buildings and infrastructure within 50 m of the shoreline. Three-quarters of these assets are protected by natural defences (£13bn) such as sand dunes; compared with artificial defences (£5bn) such as sea walls^[151].

4.84 Flooding can have significant and long-lasting impacts on people, communities, and businesses. Flood Risk Management Strategies^[152] co-ordinate action to tackle flooding in Scotland, setting out the national direction for flood risk management and helping target investment and coordinate action across public bodies. Flood maps have also been produced which help to show where areas are likely to be at risk of flooding from rivers, seas and surface water^[153].

4.85 The natural environmental also plays a role in mitigating flood risk, providing water storage and slowing run off. Scotland's peatlands play an important role in natural flood management. Peatland has the ability to soak up and store vast quantities of water, particularly in pools, hollows and depressions, thereby slowing the flow of water through a catchment. This can prevent flooding downstream within catchments, particularly if large areas of peatland are present upstream^[154]. Likewise, other habitats such as woodland may also contribute towards natural flood management. Woodland and forestry can help prevent flooding by intercepting precipitation, reducing surface water runoff through increased infiltration, increased use of water through evapotranspiration^[155]. Fallen branches and trees may also create natural damns along watercourses, helping to slow the flow of the water.

4.86 Within urban areas, reducing the area of hard surfacing and implementing measures such as SuDS and green infrastructure have been shown to reduce run off.

Evolution of baseline - Pressures, trends and Key points

4.87 Key pressures on the surface water environment include urbanisation, an increase in invasive non-native species, intensive agriculture/aquaculture and climate change. Rural and urban diffuse pollution remains a concern for water quality, particularly in relation to agriculture, forestry, and urban development^[156].

4.88 Airborne pollution, particularly associated with vehicle emissions can impact upon water bodies. Heightened nitrogen concentrations can cause the acidification and eutrophication of water bodies. Eutrophication occurs when the concentrations of otherwise limiting nutrients increase, allowing aquatic plants and algae to grow unchecked and depleting oxygen levels.

4.89 The predicted effects of climate change such as increased temperatures and changes to rainfall patterns could affect flows in rivers and impact on water resource availability^[157]. A changing climate is also expected to have ecological impacts, such as warmer sea temperatures and an increasing risk of non-native species spreading and becoming established in water environments^[158].

4.90 The risk of flooding from rivers, surface waters and sea is predicted to increase. This can damage material assets, pose risks to population and human health through the spread of infectious diseases and also lead to a loss of habitats, resulting from erosion. It also increases risks to communities, businesses and infrastructure. Development can also lead to diffuse pollution in surface water. Water quality is considered “good” or better in 87% of Scotland’s waters; this is compared to 82% in 2015^[159]. Scotland’s Water Framework Directive (WFD) aquatic monitoring strategy is to ensure that sufficient environmental data is collected to ensure that progress is being made towards the EU’s Water Framework Directive^[160]. The development and operation of new infrastructure has the potential to negatively impact on water quality, either during construction or via pollution run-off. New structures on land can also affect the capacity of flood plains or flood defences.

Likely evolution without implementation of the plan

4.91 The Scottish Government has policies to address these challenges, but without the implementation of the Draft Environment Strategy these will be less effective as opportunities for more effective implementation and coordination of policy will be lost. It is likely that many of the risks associated with the water environment will continue to increase. Key impacts are likely to result from more frequent and severe flooding, periods of water shortage, deteriorating water quality during flood and low flow conditions and damage to aquatic and marine habitats and species.

Cultural heritage including architectural and archaeological heritage

Overview of baseline

4.92 Scotland’s many and varied historical sites are unique and irreplaceable. These sites and features are regarded as making a valuable contribution to our quality of life, cultural identity, education and economy. While these assets are distributed widely throughout Scotland, there are clusters of sites in and around our settlements and also around our coastlines.

4.93 Designated assets in Scotland currently include six World Heritage Sites, 47,613 Listed Buildings, 8,336 Scheduled Monuments, 672 Conservation Areas, 390 Designed Gardens and Landscapes, 8 Historic Marine Protected Areas, 8 Scheduled Wrecks, and 40 Nationally Important Battlefields^[161]. Scotland also has two National Parks and 40 National Scenic Areas which contain many important features of the historic environment.

4.94 CANMORE contains more than 330,000 records and 1.5 million catalogue entries for archaeological sites, buildings, industry and maritime heritage across Scotland^[162]. However, whilst most of the historic environment is undesignated (90-95%), these known but undesignated assets provide important contextual information which helps us better understand designated sites^[163].

Evolution of baseline – Pressures, trends and key points

4.95 83% of Scheduled Monuments are considered to be in an optimal or generally satisfactory condition and 750 historic buildings on the Buildings at Risk Register have been saved between 2009 and 2018, with more than 200 others in the process of being restored^[164].

4.96 Development is a key pressure on the historic environment and cultural heritage, both directly in terms of damage to known and unknown features, and the potential for impacts on setting. Other known pressures include changing land use and land management, tourism/visitors, pollution and climate change.

4.97 It is projected that Scotland will become warmer and wetter as a result of climate change, resulting in the increased weathering of stone, rotting timbers and corrosion of metals. Rising sea levels and increased storm events may increase coastal erosion, endangering our historic landscapes, structures, buildings and archaeology in the coastal zone. Some of Scotland’s unique and special sites, such as Skara Brae in Orkney, are at most risk^[165].

4.98 Increased rainfall will mean that historic buildings and assets will be wetter for longer periods of time, and as such may result in the penetration of water, dampness, condensation and fungus growth, ground instability and structural collapse. This can potentially have damaging effects on the fabric of buildings and the health of those using it. This threat will grow in the future, given the future predictions of the likely effects of global warming and climate change for the remainder of this century.

Likely evolution without implementation of the plan

4.99 The Draft Environment Strategy will support Scotland’s progress to net zero and measures that reduce emissions or support adaptation to climate change, e.g. by ensuring historic buildings are wind and water-tight with good ventilation systems to respond to a shift in climatic changes. Without the implementation of the Draft Environment Strategy, there will be less joined up working to support the management of heritage assets.

Landscape, townscape and seascape

Overview of baseline

4.100 Scotland's distinctive landscapes, seascapes and townscapes are a significant part of the country’s natural and cultural heritage and make an important contribution to the economy and the wellbeing of the population. Scotland’s landscapes, seascapes and townscapes play a key role in attracting tourism, affording opportunities for business and providing the setting for outdoor recreation.

4.101 There are currently two National Parks (Loch Lomond and The Trossachs, and the Cairngorms and the new a new National Park in Galloway, including parts of South and East Ayrshire currently being consulted on) and 40 National Scenic Areas in Scotland. Over 13% of Scotland’s land area has been classified as a National Scenic Area^[166]. Designations such as Local Landscape Areas, Local Nature Conservation Sites, Local Nature Reserves, Regional Parks, Geological Conservation Review Sites and Country parks have also been established at a regional and local level by many local authorities^[167]. These areas of important nature or landscape value have been designated locally for conservation purposes and are afforded protection from inappropriate development^[168]. 42 Wild Land Areas are also recognised as nationally important in Scotland reflecting landscapes with minimal human influence^[169].

Evolution of baseline – Pressures, trends and key points

4.102 Scotland’s landscapes are constantly changing and evolving in response to both natural processes and the changing demands of society. Changes in landscape tend to occur over long periods of time, and gradual change, as a result of development such as housing and renewable energy can be difficult to determine^[170].

4.103 Climate change is expected to lead to extensive landscape change across Scotland and is viewed as an increasing pressure on landscape, not only as a result of direct effects but also as a result of indirect impacts^[171]. Direct impacts are likely as a result of changing temperatures and patterns of precipitation, weather events and sea level change^[172]. Other commitments to adapting to the predicted effects of climate change, for example, the development of renewable energy (such as wind farms, hydro-power schemes, solar power and hydrogen technologies) is seen by many as a pressure on both visual amenity and the character of many rural landscapes. The construction of new transport infrastructure and working towards a national target for increasing forest cover in Scotland also has the potential to affect our landscapes and seascapes.

4.104 The greatest changes are likely to be seen in areas of highest population, such as lowland and coastal areas. Mitigation and adaptation measures are expected to have a greater influence on both Scotland's landscapes and the quality of life than that of the direct effects of climate change^[173].

4.105 The coast and foreshore are under many pressures particularly from climate change, rising sea level and coastal erosion. These areas are also very important recreational resources, which is dependent on the landscape and environmental quality of these areas. The seascape surrounding terrestrial Scotland is also impacted by the development of marine aquaculture. Aquaculture development is predominantly located along the western and northern coasts of mainland Scotland, as well as around many of the offshore islands. The continual development of marine aquaculture has the potential to impact coastal character and visual amenity, if poorly sited or designed. In addition to aquaculture development, energy generation development, including on and offshore windfarms can impact landscape and seascape if poorly sited and designed.

4.106 Development and changes in land use related to urban expansion-associated infrastructure, is also a key pressure and the distinctive landscape settings of many towns and cities is being lost as a result of settlement expansion and infrastructure requirements.

Likely evolution without implementation of the plan

4.107 The Scottish Government has policies to address these challenges, but without the implementation of the Draft Environment Strategy these will be less effective as opportunities for more effective implementation and coordination of policy will be lost, and management of landscape change will be further challenged. The impacts of unmanaged change could include landscape change resulting from flood damage, coastal change and wildfire. There could be increases in pests and disease which impact on key species within the landscape and lead to losses of trees, crops and livestock. Although adaptation measures would still take place, these would be at a lower rate and within a less coordinated framework.

Material assets

Overview of baseline

4.108 While existing policies relating to energy, waste, transportation and land use are wide-ranging, they largely share the aims of contributing to core planning objectives, supporting sustainable development, reducing GHG emissions, and making the best use of Scotland’s resources and existing infrastructure.

4.109 Scotland’s natural resources are also material assets. Mineral resources and aggregates are used for purposes such as fuel (e.g. coal), and construction (e.g. sand gravel and rock). However, the quantity of these resources is finite and once they are used up, they cannot be replaced.

4.110 A large proportion of Scotland’s material assets are sourced from imports. Compared to the previous year, the value of Scotland’s international goods imports in the year ending March 2023 increased by 26.8% (up £7.6 billion) to £36.0 billion. The increase in the value of goods imports to Scotland was driven by imports of gas, which rose by £2.6 billion (up 35.5%), and accounted for over a quarter (28%) of Scotland’s total imports in the year ending March 2023. Other large sources of imports include power generating, general industrial and office machinery, oil, electrical machinery and appliances, transport equipment, road vehicles, apparel and clothing and telecoms and sounds recording^[174].

4.111 In 2022, 1,459,658 tonnes of waste was exported from Scotland^[175]. Waste management, transportation and efficiency in energy generation and land use form key aspects of the Draft update and have the potential for environmental impacts. Around four-fifths of Scotland’s carbon footprint comes from the products and services manufactured, used and thrown away^[176]. Environmental baseline information relevant to each of these sectors is presented in the following sections.

Energy

4.112 Heating makes up approximately half of Scotland’s energy consumption (48.2%) with transport (27.6%) and electricity (21.1%) making up approximately a quarter each^[177]. A breakdown by sector of non-transport energy consumption shows that 58.5% is accounted for by industrial and commercial sectors, with 41.5% consumed domestically^[178]. Domestic consumption of electricity and heat dropped by 27.8%% in 2022, compared to the 2005-2007 baseline. Energy consumption in transport decreased slightly in 2022 by 1.1%, industrial energy consumption has dropped by 26.3% and commercial consumption fell by 7.6% compared to the 2005-2007 baseline^[179].

4.113 Scotland's energy consumption increased by 0.2% from 2021 to 2022, with a 6.6% rise in Industry and a 6.2% rise in Transport balanced out by a 10.5% decrease in Domestic energy consumption. Overall energy consumption in 2022 is 18.0% lower than the 2005-2007 baseline^[180].

4.114 In the first half of 2024, Scotland generated 18,084GWh of renewable electricity, up 13.7% on the same point in 2023. Scotland’s renewable electricity capacity increased by 5% from June 2023 to 15.6 GW in June 2024. As of June 2024, there are 830 potential renewable electricity projects in the planning and construction pipeline with a projected total capacity of 51.3 GW including battery and pumped hydro storage ^[181]. In 2022 Scotland successfully achieved the target of generating more than 100% of its gross electricity consumption from renewable sources (total electricity generation minus exports) and the government decided not to continue monitoring this target beyond 2022. ^[182].

4.115 There have been significant changes to the electricity generation mix in recent years with the vast majority of the electricity that Scotland generated from low carbon sources. In turn, fossil fuel generation in 2022 just provided 11.4% of all electricity generated from oil and gas, compared to 48.4% in 2010^[183].

4.116 In the first half of 2024, 76.4% of all renewable electricity generated in Scotland was from wind. Hydro is Scotland’s second highest source of renewable generation (15.4%)^[184]. The remaining 8.2% was produced by other renewable energy technologies. Solar capacity has increased rapidly in the first half of this decade. Bioenergy and energy from waste accounted for 6.9% of overall renewable electricity generated in Scotland in 2022^[185] and whilst the current capacity of wave and tidal is considered to be relatively small, technology is developing and Scotland benefits from significant resource potential in these areas. At a domestic level, Scotland is reliant on gas as the primary heating fuel for homes, with 81% of Scotland’s 2.0 million dwellings using gas^[186]. However, almost 20% of Scottish domestic consumers live in an off-gas grid area, with the highest proportion of off-grid properties found in the Highlands and Argyll and Bute^[187].

4.117 In 2022, Scotland generated 5.63 TWh of renewable heat, marking a record year for this sector. Between 2021 and 2022, the majority of the increase was driven by biomass installations, which contributed 83 GWh making up 66.6% of the total output. Biomethane was the second-largest contributor, accounting for 16% of total renewable heat and increasing by 52 GWh. During the same period, heat pump installations rose by 3,446, accounting for 11% of overall output. However, their contribution remains relatively small because they are primarily found in domestic settings, where capacities are lower and year-round usage is limited compared to other heat sources.^[188].

4.118 Between 2000 and 2021, renewable electricity generation in Scotland has displaced an estimated 173.8 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions ^[189].

Evolution of baseline – Pressures, trends and key points

4.119 As Scotland’s energy mix changes over the next few years, the electricity transmission network (grid) that supports the balance between energy generation and demand will change significantly. For example, as a result of the increased electrification of the transport and heat network. Infrastructure will play a key role in ensuring security of supply and decarbonising our energy systems in the most cost effective, affordable way^[190]. Energy storage is likely to be an increasingly important part of the transition to delivering clean, affordable and secure supplies of energy^[191]. For example, the continued development of battery storage technologies and hydrogen fuel cells for vehicle use in the transport sector.

4.120 Flooding poses one of the greatest long-term climate related risks to infrastructure performance. However, growing risks posed from heat, water scarcity and slope instability could also prove significant^[192]. Severe weather events can exacerbate these risks with storm damage and wildfire risk significant for the electricity transmission network. These events can also impact on energy generation, including effects from water scarcity impacting on hydro power production, and severe winds impacting on wind energy production.

Likely evolution without implementation of the plan

4.121 The Scottish Government has policies to address these challenges, but without the implementation of the Draft Environment Strategy these will be less effective as opportunities for more effective implementation and coordination of policy will be lost. It is likely that critical infrastructure will become more vulnerable to severe weather events, and also associated coastal erosion. This includes impacts on the energy network, water supply, communications and transport infrastructure increasing the risk of cascading systems failures affecting communities and businesses across Scotland. Direct impacts on physical infrastructure such as buildings, including risks from severe weather, and overheating will also impact on delivery of services, wellbeing and human health.