Scottish Rural Communities Policy Review: stage 1 - theories of change

Introduction

The Scottish Government has commissioned Scotland’s Rural College (SRUC), Ipsos, the University of the Highlands and Islands (Perth), and other partners to carry out a Scottish Rural Communities Policy Review in 2025-26. The review focuses on three key elements of rural community funding and support: Community Led Local Development, Scottish Rural Action and the Scottish Rural Network. The review is ongoing and will be completed by Spring 2026.

The first stage of the project (led by Ipsos) is to develop four theory of change models: one for each element and an overarching theory of change. The other stages of the review will involve an evidence review, fieldwork, and reporting.^[1]

A Theory of Change provides a structured narrative explaining how a programme, initiative or intervention is expected to achieve its intended outcomes. It logically maps the elements of a programme, outlining the activities undertaken, the outputs and outcomes anticipated, and the underlying assumptions connecting them.

A draft Theory of Change for each programme was developed by Ipsos, based on existing documentation and information available online. These draft Theories of Change were reviewed initially by Scottish Government. They were then reviewed by key stakeholders involved in the design or delivery of Community Led Local Development, Scottish Rural Action or the Scottish Rural Network, or who had a wider interest in rural policy.

Three online workshops were then undertaken with key stakeholders, one each for Community Led Local Development, Scottish Rural Action and the Scottish Rural Network. The workshops took place in March and April 2025 and lasted around two hours. During the workshops, stakeholders were presented with the draft Theories of Change and asked to provide their feedback on every element. Additional one-to-one or mini group discussions were held with stakeholders who were unable to attend the main workshops.

This document sets out the interim Theories of Change at the end of Stage 1 of the review. It contains contextual information relevant to each initiative as well as key feedback from stakeholders who took part in workshops or interviews to inform their development. As with any Theory of Change, the content provides an overview rather than a comprehensive account of each initiative. It should be read alongside the Scottish Rural Communities Policy Review: Policy and Delivery Context document, which provides important background information.

The Theories of Change set out in this document will act as a research tool to inform the fieldwork stage of the Scottish Rural Communities Policy Review, which is ongoing. They are ‘living’ documents that will in turn be informed by findings that emerge from fieldwork planned over Summer 2025. The Theories of Change will be further reviewed and revised as part of the final analysis and reporting stages.