Scottish prison population projections: October 2025
This report presents short-term Scottish prison population projections for the six month period from October 2025 to March 2026.
The latest prison population projections are shown in Figure 17 and Table 2 below.
Figure 17. Prison population projections for October 2025 to March 2026. The projection range (sometimes referred to as the fan) includes the overlapping 50%, 75% and 95% confidence intervals for all scenario variants given in Table 1. The actual population is shown as a series of black points.
On 1st October 2025, the total prison population was 8,363. The overall projected range for the average daily prison population in March 2026 is between 7,900 and 8,800. The modelling indicates it is likely that the overall prison population in Scotland will increase between the beginning of October 2025 and the end of March 2026.
The remand population on 1st October 2025 was 2,096. The projected range for the average daily remand population in March 2026 is between 1,250 and 2,600. Modelling indicates it is likely that the remand prison population in Scotland will decrease between October 2025 and March 2026. If the remand population decreases primarily because of enhanced monthly case conclusions, this could contribute to an increased sentenced population as people transition from remand to the sentenced population.
The sentenced population on 1st October 2025 was 6,267. The projected range for the average daily sentenced population in March 2026 is between 6,050 and 6,750. Modelling indicates it is likely that the sentenced prison population in Scotland will increase between October 2025 and March 2026. The rate of inflows to the sentenced population could increase if either the overall rate of transition from remand to the sentenced population increases or if there is a greater inflow of individuals directly from the community to the sentenced population.
Table 2. Prison average daily population upper/lower estimates for October 2025 to March 2026[1]. These estimates are calculated from the 95% confidence intervals combined across all three scenario variants given in Table 1.
|
Month |
Remand |
Sentenced |
Total |
|||
|
Lower |
Upper |
Lower |
Upper |
Lower |
Upper |
|
|
Oct 25 |
1,950 |
2,150 |
6,250 |
6,350 |
8,300 |
8,450 |
|
Nov 25 |
1,700 |
2,200 |
6,250 |
6,500 |
8,200 |
8,500 |
|
Dec 25 |
1,550 |
2,300 |
6,150 |
6,550 |
8,050 |
8,550 |
|
Jan 26 |
1,400 |
2,500 |
6,050 |
6,600 |
7,950 |
8,650 |
|
Feb 26 |
1,300 |
2,600 |
6,000 |
6,650 |
7,900 |
8,700 |
|
Mar 26 |
1,250 |
2,600 |
6,050 |
6,750 |
7,900 |
8,800 |
In Table 2 the upper total population and remand range estimates are from the lower court conclusion rate scenario. The lower range estimates for the total and remand populations are from the higher court conclusion rate scenario.
It should be reiterated that while the projections are based on recent trends, they do not explicitly model the impact of potential future policy or operational changes, nor their potential impact on the prison population.
[1] The values have been rounded to the nearest 50 and exclude the home detention curfew population. The upper and lower estimates of the total prison population may not be equal to the sum of the sentenced and remand populations as they can be from different scenario variants.