Scottish prison population projections: October 2025

As of 1st October 2025, the prison population was 8,363. The modelling indicates a projected range for the average daily total prison population of between 7,900 and 8,800 in March 2026.

It is likely that the overall prison population will increase over the projection horizon.

It is likely that the remand population will decrease, and it is projected that the average daily remand population in March 2026 could be between 1,250 and 2,600.

It is likely that the sentenced population will increase, and it is projected that the average daily sentenced population could be between 6,050 and 6,750 in March 2026.

From October 2025 eligibility for HDC will be expanded to prisoners who have served 15% of their custodial sentence (down from 25%), and the maximum time prisoners can be released on an HDC licence will be increased to 210 days (from 180)[1].

As a result of increasing pressures on prison estate capacity, the Scottish Government recently announced measures to address and mitigate the rising prison population[2]. It should be noted that these latest prison population projections do not include the effects of these measures recently announced which are yet to commence.

Over the coming months, remand arrivals, sentenced arrivals, and case conclusion levels will be monitored to assess which scenario the actual prison population most closely aligns with.

For several reasons, the microsimulation becomes less accurate over longer time horizons. This could be due to systematic errors in the model, inaccurate assumptions due to unforeseen circumstances, or limitations in the model’s ability to adapt to evolving and unforeseen circumstances. Experience to date suggests that a six-month projection window provides a reasonable balance between reliability and foresight.

As previously highlighted, the key short-term drivers of prison population change are the flows into and out of the remand and sentenced populations. These flows are influenced by factors such as the court recovery programme, including the reallocation of resources from summary to solemn in April 2023. The current modelling assumes no further changes to the number of courtrooms allocated to summary and solemn procedure until at least April 2026[3].