Scottish prison population projections: October 2025
This report presents short-term Scottish prison population projections for the six month period from October 2025 to March 2026.
This is the ninth report published since June 2023 on the Scottish Government modelling of the level of demand for prison accommodation in Scotland. It presents prison population projections for the six-month period from October 2025 to March 2026[1]. These have been produced using ‘microsimulation’ scenario modelling, which simulates prison arrivals and departures to estimate the number of individuals in prison on a given future date.
The projections are produced to support high-level decision-making, planning, and policy development. As they do not account for the full complexity of the prison population, they are not intended for use in the day-to-day management of those in prison.
Recent Developments
The previous projections were published in July 2025.
Since March 2025, all eligible short-term prisoners have been released after serving 40% of their sentence[2].
From October 2025 eligibility for Home Detention Curfew (HDC) has been expanded to prisoners who have served 15% of their custodial sentence (down from 25%), and the maximum time prisoners can be released on an HDC licence will be increased to 210 days (from 180)[3].
The population projections in this publication reflect the reduction in the sentenced population due to the legislative measures outlined above by adjusting release points accordingly.
As a result of increasing pressures on prison estate capacity, the Scottish Government recently announced measures to address and mitigate the rising prison population on 2nd October [4]. It should be noted that these latest prison population projections do not include the effects of these measures as they are yet to commence.
The modelling accounts for how criminal justice system activity (especially in the courts) and the flows that drive the prison population may change and uses these to estimate short-term changes in the population. The uncertainty surrounding court activity is reflected in the three scenarios based on different levels of court case conclusions: ‘low’, ‘central’, and ‘high’.
As highlighted in previous publications, the key short-term drivers of the prison population are expected to be the flows into and out of the remand and sentenced populations.
Key Points
On 1st October 2025, the overall prison population in Scotland was 8,363, and the remand and sentenced populations were 2,096 and 6,267, respectively[5].
The latest prison population projections, shown in Figure 1, indicate if current trends continue and no further interventions (including the measures announced on 2nd October) were introduced, then:
- It is likely[6] that the overall prison population will increase between 1st October 2025 and 31st March 2026.
- Across the three scenarios, it is projected that the average daily prison population could be between 7,900 and 8,800 [7] in March 2026.
- It is likely that the remand population will decrease between October 2025 and March 2026. It is projected that the average daily remand population could be between 1,250 and 2,600 in March 2026.
- It is likely that the sentenced population will increase between October 2025 and March 2026. The average daily sentenced population could be between 6,050 and 6,750 in March 2026.
- Between July and October 2025, the actual prison population aligned with the higher court case conclusions scenario of the last set of projections[8].
- If the actual prison population aligns with the central scenario in these projections, then it is likely that the demand for prison spaces will rise between October and March 2026.
It is worth noting that in some past growth periods (e.g. early 2023 and early 2024) the actual population has tracked the upper end of the projection range for several weeks. There is uncertainty around the turn of the year when the population historically has tended to fluctuate rapidly in December and January[9].
Over the coming months, remand arrivals, sentenced arrivals, and case conclusion levels will be monitored to assess which scenario the actual prison population most closely follows.
Figure 1. Prison population projections for October 2025 to March 2026. The projection range includes the overlapping 50%, 75% and 95% confidence intervals for all scenario variants given in Table 1. The actual population is shown as a series of black points.
[1] The projections start at the beginning of October 2025 because data available on cases progressing through courts only currently extends up to October 2025 (due to a time lag on receiving the processed data). As a result, the initial prison population used for the modelling is taken from 1st October 2025.
[2] Prisoners (Early Release) (Scotland) Act 2025, Prisoners (Early Release) (Scotland) Act 2025, 22nd January 2025 (STP40).
[6] For more information refer to the Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment (PHIA) framework of language for discussing probabilities, Page 5, Epidemiology Modelling Review Group: consensus statement on COVID-19 (publishing.service.gov.uk).
[7] Future trends in the justice system demand and throughput, including the volume of remand arrivals and the rate of case conclusions, are uncertain which is reflected in the ranges given for the population estimates.
[8] As published in the July 2025 edition.
[9] Seasonal trends for the prison population since the COVID-19 pandemic indicate some very general similarities at the turn of the year. The sentenced population around late November/early December tends to increase, then between Christmas and the first week of January steeply decrease. The remand population tends to reduce from late November/early December, then it tends to increase sharply before stabilising between Christmas and New Year. The total population tends to fall slightly in late November/early December, then falls more sharply in late December before recovering somewhat by early February.