Scottish prison population projections: July 2025
This report presents short-term Scottish prison population projections for the six month period from July to December 2025.
Microsimulation Model Results: July 2025 to December 2025
The latest prison population projections are shown in Figure 16 and Table 2 below.
Figure 16. Prison population projections for July 2025 to December 2025. The projection range (sometimes referred to as the fan) includes the overlapping 50%, 75% and 95% confidence intervals for all scenario variants given in Table 1. The actual population is shown as a series of black points.
Legislation aimed at reducing the prison population was passed by the Scottish Parliament in November 2024 and enacted as the Prisoners (Early Release) (Scotland) Act on 22nd January 2025. This legislation changed the release point for some individuals serving sentences of less than four years from 50% to 40% of their sentence[1]. The projections presented in this publication account for the resulting ongoing reduction in the sentenced population by adjusting release points accordingly in the modelling.
On 1st July 2025, the total prison population was 8,202. The overall projected range for the average daily prison population in December 2025 is between 7,950 and 8,750. The modelling indicates it is likely that the overall prison population in Scotland will increase between the beginning of July 2025 and the end of December 2025.
The remand population on 1st July 2025 was 2,094. The projected range for the average daily remand population in December 2025 is between 1,300 and 2,550. Modelling indicates it is likely that the remand prison population in Scotland will decrease between July 2025 and December 2025. If the remand population decreases primarily because of enhanced monthly case conclusions, this could contribute to an increased sentenced population as people transition from remand to the sentenced population.
The sentenced population on 1st July 2025 was 6,108. The projected range for the average daily sentenced population in December 2025 is between 6,100 and 6,850. Modelling indicates it is highly likely that the sentenced prison population in Scotland will increase between July 2025 and December 2025. The rate of inflows to the sentenced population could increase if either the overall rate of transition from remand to the sentenced population increases or if there is a greater inflow of individuals directly from the community to the sentenced population.
Table 2. Prison average daily population upper/lower estimates for July 2025 to December 2025[2]. These estimates are calculated from the 95% confidence intervals combined across all three scenario variants given in Table 1.
|
Month |
Remand |
Sentenced |
Total |
|||
|
Lower |
Upper |
Lower |
Upper |
Lower |
Upper |
|
|
Jul 25 |
1,950 |
2,150 |
6,100 |
6,200 |
8,150 |
8,300 |
|
Aug 25 |
1,750 |
2,250 |
6,100 |
6,400 |
8,100 |
8,400 |
|
Sep 25 |
1,600 |
2,350 |
6,100 |
6,500 |
8,000 |
8,500 |
|
Oct 25 |
1,500 |
2,400 |
6,100 |
6,600 |
7,950 |
8,600 |
|
Nov 25 |
1,400 |
2,450 |
6,100 |
6,750 |
7,950 |
8,700 |
|
Dec 25 |
1,300 |
2,550 |
6,100 |
6,850 |
7,950 |
8,750 |
In Table 2 the upper total population and remand range estimates are from the lower court conclusion rate scenario. The lower range estimates for the total and remand populations are from the higher court conclusion rate scenario.
It should be reiterated that while the projections are based on recent trends, they do not explicitly model the impact of potential future policy or operational changes, nor their potential impact on the prison population.
[1] Prisoners (Early Release) (Scotland) Act 2025, Prisoners (Early Release) (Scotland) Act 2025, 22nd January 2025.
[2] The values have been rounded to the nearest 50 and exclude the home detention curfew population. The upper and lower estimates of the total prison population may not be equal to the sum of the sentenced and remand populations as they can be from different scenario variants.