Conclusions

As of 1st July 2025, the prison population was 8,202. The modelling indicates a projected range for the average daily total prison population of between 7,950 and 8,750 in December 2025.

It is likely that the overall prison population will increase over the forecast horizon.

It is likely that the remand population will decrease, and it is projected that the average daily remand population in December 2025 could be between 1,300 and 2,550.

It is highly likely that the sentenced population will increase, and it is projected that the average daily sentenced population could be between 6,100 and 6,850 in December 2025.

Legislation aimed at reducing the prison population was passed by the Scottish Parliament in November 2024 and enacted as the Prisoners (Early Release) (Scotland) Act on 22 January 2025. The projections in this publication account for the resulting reduction in the sentenced population by adjusting release points in line with the new legislation.

Over the coming months, remand arrivals, sentenced arrivals, and case conclusion levels will be monitored to assess which scenario the actual prison population most closely aligns with.

For several reasons, the microsimulation becomes less accurate over longer time horizons. This could be due to systematic errors in the model, inaccurate assumptions due to unforeseen circumstances, or limitations in the model’s ability to adapt to evolving and unforeseen circumstances. Experience to date suggests that a six-month projection window provides a reasonable balance between reliability and foresight.

As previously highlighted, the key short-term drivers of prison population change are the flows into and out of the remand and sentenced populations. These flows are influenced by factors such as the court recovery programme, including the reallocation of resources from summary to solemn in April 2023. The current modelling assumes no further changes to the number of courtrooms allocated to summary and solemn procedure until at least January 2026[1].