International Development Fund: non-communicable disease programme

This report responds to a commission by the Scottish Government to design a new international development health programme providing support to the governments of Malawi, Rwanda and Zambia with a focus on non-communicable diseases (NCDs).


Appendix 4: Country snapshots – Zambia

Economic-political situation

Despite having one of the world’s fastest growing economies in the decade prior to 2011, in 2020, 54% of the population live below the poverty line. GDP is expected to grow by 3.8% in the coming years, although there are growing inequalities in this increasingly urbanised country. Zambia is considered stable, with the last election of a new President in 2021. Zambia had been declared a lower middle-income country in 2010, and this has led to the exit of some donors, but this has since been revoked.[118]

Table 18: Size and age of population in Zambia (2020, 2035, and 2050)[119]
2020 2035 2050
Population (million) 18.9 27.8 37.5
Median age 17.6 20.2 22.8

Health Funding

In 2021 government allocation to health was low, at 8.1% of the total budget. This equates to 3% of GDP. In 2022 only 15% of the health budget is expected to come from external sources. 84% of development assistance for health prioritises communicable diseases, maternal and child health, nutrition and health system strengthening. At present there are no development partners specifically on NCDs. Poor fiduciary management and corruption particularly related to medicines procurement led external partners to move away from a SWAP. However anecdotal reports suggest that recent political changes are seen as positive (KIIs). Chronic care for NCDs is not covered in insurance schemes, so OOP expenditure is high.[120]

Figure 20: Resource mapping in Zambia’s health sector, financial year 2019[121]
Chart showing health sector resource mapping in Zambia (financial year 2019).
Table 19: Key statistics – Zambia[122]
2009-2010 2018-20
Rural population 61.0% 54.6%
Birth rate 5.4 4.5
Population living under national poverty line 54.7% 54.5%
Population living under international poverty line 68.5% 57.5%
GDP per capita $1,490 $1,121
<5 mortality per 1,000 live births 77.0 61.4
MMR[123] per 100,000 live births 305 213
Life expectancy 56 64
Table 20: Risk factors for NCDs in Zambia for men and women[124]
Risk factor Male Female
% smokers 24.0 7.8
% drink alcohol 16.8 5.1
% obese 3.0 12.3
Mean salt intake 9.5g (2 times WHO recommendation)
Figure 21: Cause of death by rate – Zambia[125]
Graph showing cause of death by rate in Zambia.

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