Scottish economic bulletin: October 2023

Provides a summary of latest key economic statistics, forecasts and analysis on the Scottish economy.

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Scotland's GDP growth remains subdued going into the second half of the year.

  • Scotland's GDP grew 0.1% in July 2023 (UK: -0.5%), however more broadly fell 0.1% over the 3-months to July.[1] This followed a fall of 0.3% over the 3-months to June, reflecting that the growth at the beginning of the year has proved temporary so far.
  • Overall, growth has been broadly flat since the start of 2022 as consumer and business activity have been progressively impacted by inflationary pressures and rising interest rates.
GDP Growth (rolling 3-month rate)
Bar and line chart showing the recent broadly flat pace of GDP growth in  Scotland and the UK during 2022 and 2023.
  • At a sector level, the fall in output over the 3-months to July has been driven by the production sector (-1.2%) with a further fall in manufacturing output (-0.3%), offsetting 0.1% growth in both the services and construction sectors.
Scotland GDP Growth by sector (rolling 3-month rate)
Bar and line chart showing positive growth in services and construction sectors and falling output in the production sector during 2023.
  • Within the services sector, growth picked up in the health, education and public services sectors (0.8%) however fell 0.1% in consumer facing services with retail output falling 1.9%, offsetting growth in sectors such as accommodation and food services (0.3%) and arts, culture and recreation (2.4%).



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