Scottish economic bulletin: February 2026

Footnotes

1 Economy statistics - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

2 GDP monthly estimate, UK - Office for National Statistics

3 Consumer price inflation, UK - Office for National Statistics

4 Monetary Policy Report - February 2026 | Bank of England

5 Bank Rate maintained at 3.75% - February 2026 Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes | Bank of England

6 Businesses anticipate uneasy start to 2026 | FAI

7 Quarterly Economic Indicator - Scottish ChambersScottish Chambers

8 Business and innovation statistics - gov.scot

9 Purchasing Managers’ Index Reports | Royal Bank of Scotland , Purchasing Managers’ Index Reports | NatWest Business , https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/public/release/pressreleases

10 Purchasing Managers’ Index Reports | Royal Bank of Scotland , Purchasing Managers’ Index Reports | NatWest Business , https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/public/release/pressreleases

11 Purchasing Managers’ Index Reports | Royal Bank of Scotland , Purchasing Managers’ Index Reports | NatWest Business , https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/public/release/pressreleases

12 Labour market statistics - gov.scot

13 Nomis - Official Census and Labour Market Statistics

14 In May 2024, the Department for Work and Pensions increased the administrative earnings threshold for full work search conditionality. This change affected around 180,000 claimants in the UK, increasing the Claimant Count at the time of the change.

15 Earnings and employment from Pay As You Earn Real Time Information, seasonally adjusted - Office for National Statistics

16 Purchasing Managers’ Index Reports | Royal Bank of Scotland , Purchasing Managers’ Index Reports | NatWest Business , https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/public/release/pressreleases

17 Earnings and employment from Pay as You Earn Real Time Information, seasonally adjusted - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)

18 Agents' summary of business conditions - February 2026 | Bank of England

19 Economy statistics - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

20 Consumer confidence up one point to -16 in January - NIQ

21 Retail sales, Great Britain - Office for National Statistics

22 Effective interest rates - A visual summary of our data | Bank of England

23 Monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount - Office for National Statistics

24 World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces

25 Monetary Policy Report - February 2026 | Bank of England

26 Forecasts for the UK economy - GOV.UK

27 Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts – January 2026 | Scottish Fiscal Commission

28 FAI Economic Commentary Q4 2025 | FAI