Publication - Research and analysis
Scottish economic bulletin: February 2026
Provides a summary of latest key economic statistics, forecasts and analysis on the Scottish economy.
Data and Forecasts Summary
| Indicator | Latest Data | Next Release | 2025 | 2026 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
June 2025 |
July 2025 | Aug 2025 | Sep 2025 | Oct 2025 | Nov 2025 | Dec 2025 | Jan 2026 | Feb 2025 |
| GDP growth (3-month rolling %) | 0.3% (Nov) | 25 February | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Unemployment rate (%) | 3.7% (Sep - Nov) | 17 February | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.7 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Real Earnings growth (YoY %) | 0.9% (Dec) | 18 February | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 0.5 | -1.8 | 0.9 | n/a | n/a |
| Inflation rate (CPI YoY %) | 3.4% (Dec) | 18 February | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 3.4 | n/a | n/a |
| BoE Base Rate (%) | 3.75% (Feb) | 19 March | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 |
| Consumer Sentiment (Index) | -9.6 (Dec) | 25 February | -6.9 | -8.8 | -8.1 | -8.1 | -6.6 | -10.2 | -9.6 | n/a | n/a |
| Indicator | Organsiation | Date of Forecast | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP growth (YoY %) | SFC | January 2026 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Unemployment rate (%) | SFC | January 2026 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.1 |
| Nominal Average Earnings growth (YoY %) | SFC | January 2026 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| Inflation rate (4Q rate in Q4) | BoE | February 2026 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 2.0 | n/a | n/a |
Contact
Email: economic.statistics@gov.scot