Scottish Consumer Sentiment Indicator: 2025 Quarter 1

Data and Methodology

Overview

The Scottish Consumer Sentiment Indicator has been compiled quarterly since Q2 2013, initially based on a face-to-face survey of approximately 2,250 adults in Scotland. As a result of the coronavirus pandemic, the consumer sentiment survey was paused in March 2020 and restarted as an online survey in June 2020 with a quarterly sample of c. 3,000 adults in Scotland. This data can be viewed and compared as far back as Q2 2013 and, on a monthly basis since April 2019.[1]

Data sources and quality

The Consumer Sentiment Survey asks respondents questions to ascertain whether sentiment has improved, declined or remained unchanged across 5 indicators:

1. Current Scottish economic performance over the past 12 months;
2. Expected Scottish economic performance over the next 12 months;
3. Current security of households’ financial position over the past 12 months;
4. Expected security of households’ financial position over the next 12 months;
5. Current attitude to spending money over the past 12 months.

Estimates, across these indicators, are based on a randomly selected representative sample of around 3,000 YouGov online panel members aged 16+ in Scotland every quarter, with around 1,000 responses gathered every month. The data are weighted to be a representative sample of the Scottish population as a whole with respect to age, gender, sex, region and socioeconomic grade. All results are based on a sample and are therefore subject to statistical errors normally associated with sample-based information, however all results reported are considered to be of sufficient quality.

Data Processing and Quality Assurance

Indicator scores for each question are presented in the form of net balances. The net balances are calculated by subtracting the percentage of respondents that report a decline in sentiment from the percentage of respondents that report an improvement in sentiment, excluding respondents that report unchanged sentiment. In each quarter this shows whether the balance of responses is positive, negative or balanced. From this, the composite Consumer Sentiment Indicator score is derived as the average of the net balances for each of the five sub-indicators.

On a quarterly and monthly basis, the distribution of responses to questions and the net balances provides a snapshot of consumer sentiment. The change in net balances between time periods can also show whether sentiment is improving or weakening. Taken together, the latest net balance scores, and the change compared to previous periods, provide an early signal of potential changes in household spending, a key component of Scottish GDP.

Anonymised raw data are received in Scottish Government for analysis.  After statistical processing, quality assurance is undertaken to ensure processing meets the required accuracy. This involves internal checks using two separate methodologies to process the data, conducted by at least two different analysts.

Relevance and Coherence

The Scottish Consumer Sentiment Indicator (SCSI) is a key indicator for tracking the performance of the Scottish economy. Estimates are published around four weeks after the end of the month or quarter when data are collected.  The SCSI provides insights on consumer sentiment in Scotland in advance of a wider range of accredited official and official statistics relating to business insights and economic performance such as GDP or Labour Market statistics.

Insights on the sentiment of households is an important aspect of understanding economic conditions in Scotland. SG Quarterly National Accounts estimate household final consumption expenditure (measuring how much money people in households spend on a range of commodities) makes up around 62.8 per cent of Scottish GDP.

The SCSI provides an understanding of the sentiment of consumers in the economy. This survey is for Scotland only, however can be used alongside similar indicators at a UK level (such as GfK UK Consumer Sentiment) Global - NIQ to illustrate the economic and financial conditions facing households.

Accessibility

The Scottish Consumer Sentiment Indicator is released as a statistical bulletin every calendar quarter alongside quarterly publication tables, excel tables are also updated every month. These are all available on the Scottish Government website at the following link Economy statistics - gov.scot. Publication tables include data on the five sub-indicators of sentiment and report the distribution of respondents reporting better, worse, or the same level of sentiment for each sub-indicator.

Key findings are also widely disseminated through regular Chief Economist Publications including in the Scottish Economic Bulletin and Scottish Economic Insights publications. These are published at the following link  Economic briefs and bulletins - gov.scot

Related links

GDP Monthly Estimate; February 2025: 30 April 2025

Bulletin Release 30 April 2025

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) statistics measure changes in the output of the economy. This is an official Statistics in Development publication for Scotland 

Scottish Economic Bulletin – March 2025: 5 March 2025

Bulletin Release 5 March 2025

Provides a summary of latest key economic statistics, forecasts and analysis on the Scottish economy

Other relevant statistics can be found at

Economy statistics - gov.scot

Economic briefs and bulletins - gov.scot

Business and innovation statistics - gov.scot

Background Information

The following supporting documents have been published:

• Excel tables of results, including monthly data.

The Scottish Consumer Sentiment Indicator also features in the Monthly Economic Bulletin and the Scottish Economic Insights report. Links to the latest versions of these publications can be found and accessed at: Economic briefs and bulletins - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

Next publications

The next quarterly publication of the Scottish Consumer Sentiment Indicator is due in July 2025. Updates to the monthly data will also be released before this on 28 May 2025 and 25 June 2025.