Scottish Consumer Sentiment Indicator: 2025 Quarter 1

Results Breakdown

Composite Indicator

In Q1 2025, the composite Consumer Sentiment Indicator was -6.5 and decreased by 1.6 points compared to Q4 2024 indicating that consumer sentiment weakened over the quarter. Three of the five sub-indicators of sentiment covering attitudes to spending and expectations of future economic performance and household finances fell over the quarter. Sentiment on current economic performance and current household financial security improved over the quarter.

The main driver of the fall in sentiment over the quarter was a fall in expectations sentiment. Sentiment on expected economic performance stood at 0.7, falling by 6.2 points over the quarter, and sentiment on future household finances stood at ‑5.0, down 1.2 points from Q4 2024. On balance, respondents have become less positive on the outlook for the economy and their household finances, albeit remain more positive overall on the former measure and negative on the latter.

In contrast, sentiment on current economic performance rose marginally by 0.1 points to ‑1.0 while sentiment on current household financial security rose from ‑8.6 to ‑7.8. This indicates that, on balance, respondents feel the economy and their finances are weaker when compared to a year ago but to a lesser extent than in the previous quarter.

Attitudes to spending also weakened over the quarter to ‑19.2, down by 1.5 points, indicating worsening sentiment on balance across the quarter with households less relaxed about spending money than a year ago.

Scottish consumer sentiment fell in Q1 2025, driven by falling expectations sentiment and lower sentiment on spending, although was partially offset by improving sentiment on current economic performance and household finances

Figure 2: The Scottish Consumer Sentiment Indicator fell in the first quarter of 2025 to ‑6.5, driven by a fall in expectations and attitudes to spending.

Economic Performance

The Economic Performance indicators reflect how respondents consider Scotland’s economy is currently performing relative to 12 months earlier and how they expect it will be performing in 12 months’ time relative to current performance.

Figure 3: The current economic performance indicator rose over the quarter, while the expected economic performance indicator fell.

Consumer Sentiment, economic performance indicators, quarterly net balance, Q2 2013 to Q1 2025

 The indicator for Scotland’s current economic performance in Q1 2025 stood at ‑1.0, implying that households, on balance, consider current economic performance to be weaker than 12 months ago. Current economic performance sentiment improved over the quarter by 0.1 points and by 2.5 points compared to Q1 2024.

The indicator for Scotland’s expected economic performance in Q1 2025 stood at 0.7, implying that households, on balance, expect economic performance to improve over the next 12 months. Expected economic performance sentiment weakened by 6.2 points over the quarter and by 7.3 points compared to Q1 2024.

Household Finances

The Household Finances indicators reflect how secure respondents consider their current household financial position to be relative to 12 months earlier and how secure they expect it to be in 12 months’ time relative to its current position.

Figure 4: The current households’ finances indicator rose over the quarter, while the expected households’ finances indicator fell.

Consumer Sentiment, household finances indicators, quarterly net balance, Q2 2013 to Q1 2025

The indicator for current household financial security stood at ‑7.8 in Q1 2025, implying that households, on balance, consider their current financial conditions to be less secure than 12 months ago. Sentiment on current household financial security improved by 0.8 points over the quarter and by 3.7 points compared to Q1 2024.  

The indicator for expected household financial security stood at ‑5.0 in Q1 2025, implying that households, on balance, expect their future household finances will become less secure over the next 12 months. Sentiment on expected household financial security weakened by 1.2 points over the quarter and by 2.3 points compared to Q1 2024.

Household Spending

The Household Spending indicator reflects how relaxed respondents currently feel about spending money relative to 12 months earlier.

Figure 5: The attitudes to spending indicator fell over the quarter.

Consumer Sentiment, attitudes to spending, quarterly net balance, Q2 2013 to Q1 2025

The indicator for current attitudes to spending stood at ‑19.2 in Q1 2025, implying that households, on balance, feel less relaxed about spending money than 12 months ago. Attitudes to spending sentiment weakened by 1.5 points over the quarter but improved by 1.9 points compared to Q1 2024.