Scotland's Labour Market Insights: October 2025

Key Points

The Scottish Government’s Labour Market Trends publication mainly reports on headline Office for National Statistics (ONS) Labour Force Survey estimates for Scotland.

This Scotland’s Labour Market Insights report contains more detailed estimates describing those who are employed, unemployed or economically inactive as well as information from vacancy and business insights sources.

People in work

• the 35 to 49 year old age group saw the largest growth in the number of payrolled employees over the year to September 2025 while the 65 and over age group saw the largest percentage growth in payrolled employees over the year to September 2025
• over the year to July 2025, payrolled employee growth varied by industry sector. The Energy production and supply industry sector has shown the largest percentage growth in payrolled employees over the year
• real median earnings for payrolled employees, adjusted for inflation (using the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH)), have grown by 1.7% over the year to September 2025

People not in work

• the majority of unemployed people aged 16 and over have been unemployed for less than six months (an estimated 56.5% of unemployed people in July 2024 to June 2025)
• “long-term sick or disabled” was the main reason given by respondents to the survey for being economically inactive in Scotland. In July 2024 to June 2025, an estimated 35.2% of inactive people gave their reason for being inactive as “long-term sick or disabled”. This is the highest proportion in the July to June time series
• in July 2024 to June 2025, an estimated 17.0% of people aged 16 to 64 who were inactive reported that they wanted to work

People moving into work

• the number of new online job adverts in Scotland in September 2025 was 48,605, 8.7% (3,890) higher than in September 2024
• ONS’s Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) data shows that the proportion of businesses reporting difficulties in recruiting employees has generally been decreasing since March 2022, with an estimated 22.3% reporting difficulties in August 2025
• No One Left Behind (NOLB) is a strategic approach to employability delivery in Scotland. A total of 92,523 people started receiving support through No One Left Behind from April 2019 to June 2025

Important information in relation to data sources

The ONS Labour Force Survey is not a large and robust enough sample to produce reliable estimates for smaller groups of the Scottish population. There has also been increased volatility in Labour Force Survey estimates in recent years, further information is available in the ONS Labour Force Survey: planned improvements and its reintroduction estimates methodology article which provides information on the actions being taken to improve sample sizes. In September 2025, ONS published an LFS data quality article to provide an update on the quality of the UK level estimates based on the latest calender quarter data.

The ONS Annual Population Survey (APS) combines results from the ONS Labour Force Survey (LFS) with the local LFS boosts, providing a larger sample for smaller groups of the population.

ONS have recently conducted analysis to assess the impact of falling sample sizes over recent years on the quality of APS estimates. ONS state that although the APS estimates are robust at National and headline regional level, there are concerns with the quality of estimates for smaller groups of the population, for example local authority level estimates. This assessment of the APS estimates alongside the fact that APS estimates have not been reweighted to new population estimates has led to the suspension of the accreditation of all APS-based outputs. Further details on this can be found in the exchange between ONS and OSR:

Michael Keoghan to Siobhan Tuohy-Smith: Request to suspend APS accreditation – Office for Statistics Regulation (statisticsauthority.gov.uk)

Due to the falling sample sizes in recent years, the increased uncertainty around the estimates included in this release can be assessed using the confidence intervals provided. We have assessed the quality of the estimates included in this release using the current ONS Measuring and reporting reliability of Labour Force Survey and Annual Population Survey estimates guidance.

It is still appropriate to use the APS estimates included in this release. However, users are advised to note the increased uncertainty around these estimates in recent years.

We will continue to be transparent with our users around the quality of the APS estimates used within our releases by providing guidance on the use and limitations of the data. On 14 November 2024, the Chief Statistician published a statement on the ONS Annual Population Survey which noted our intention to publish our own quality assessment of the APS data.

On 2 April 2025, we published the first phase of our Scottish Government’s Quality Assessment of the Office for National Statistics Labour Force Survey and Annual Population Survey data for Scotland which includes a detailed assessment of the APS estimates included in this release.

Based on the current data quality rules and data confidence ratings we considered as part of our quality assessment of the APS data, the estimates included in this release remain robust and are of high or moderate confidence unless otherwise stated.

High confidence indicates that the estimates can be used to draw accurate conclusions and there is substantial trust in the information presented, which is likely to provide a good reflection of reality.

Moderate confidence indicates that estimates are a suitable, but incomplete, measure of reality and conclusions can be drawn but limitations should be understood.

We will continue to assess the quality of APS estimates included within our publications and provide updates to our users.

Changes to Labour Market Statistics in Scotland

On 29 October 2025, we have also published a paper outlining the Scottish Government’s decision to discontinue funding for the local LFS boost for Scotland.

The Change to Labour Market Statistics in Scotland: What you need to know paper assesses the potential impact on labour market statistics for Scotland and sets out our plans to ensure access to high-quality labour market statistics for Scotland going forward.