Scotland's Climate Assembly - process, impact and assembly member experience: research report

4. Support for the Assembly

This chapter considers Assembly member and public support for the Assembly, including its remit and outputs, and includes findings relating to support for citizens’ assemblies in general.

Key findings

• A large majority of Assembly members and public support the Assembly Statement of Ambition, goals and recommendations.
• For Assembly members and public who express low level of support, this is cannot be solely attributed to climate denial, low self-rated climate knowledge or lack of understanding about the recommendations. For some of these members, it appears to be associated with their dissatisfaction with some aspects of the Assembly process.
• The majority of the public appear to support fundamentally changing economic model in Scotland in order to tackle climate change, however further research is needed.
• According to Implicit Response Testing, some statements of ambition appear to have higher emotional resonance with the public than others. The abstract message that everyone has a shared role in taking action is likely to have high emotional connection, whereas messages that make a direct and specific demand for cultural change at various levels, including personal change, could meet with resistance. There also seems to be some doubt about Scotland’s capacity to be a climate change pioneer.
• Majority of people in Scotland think assemblies are worthwhile and that new ways of engaging people in decision making are needed in politics.

4.1 Support for outputs

65% of the public in the Deltapoll population survey agree that the Assembly question was the right overarching question for the Assembly to address. 9% disagreed and the remainder didn’t know.

4.1.1 Statement of Ambition

83% of Assembly members responding in the Weekend 7 survey support all (35%) or most (48%) of the overarching statements, as shown in Figure 4.1.

The Deltapoll population survey included sentences, adapted from the Statement of Ambition produced by the Assembly, to ascertain levels of public agreement and disagreement. The statements, as shown in Table 4.1 in order presented in the survey, received high levels of agreement.

Table 4.1 Public agreement and emotional resonance with statements of ambition

Deltapoll population survey Base: all online respondents (1,660)	Agree	Disagree	ERS / 100
To tackle climate change, the culture of individuals, businesses etc must all change	92%	8%	36
Living sustainable lives now will empower future generations	90%	10%	52
All levels of Scottish society need to take action	92%	8%	88
If we don't act now, we will fail current and future generations of Scots	88%	12%	53
Scotland can be a climate change pioneer	83%	17%	54
Climate change is a real and urgent issue that cannot be ignored	90%	10%	67
If we don't act now, Scotland will be failing the world	77%	23%	57

Emotional Resonance

Responses to these statements were subjected to Implicit Response Testing (IRT). Whilst reaction testing has been used in psychology research for over 40 years, IRT is increasingly being used in online market research to gain insight into survey respondents’ gut instinct or subconscious responses. IRT measures relative speed of response, calibrated against a personal baseline established for each respondent. Deltapoll analysed this data together with incidence of agreement to create an emotional resonance score (ERS). See Appendix 1 for more details on the IRT and ERS methodology.

High levels of agreement with a high ERS indicates that people believe or agree with a statement with high emotional certainty, and are therefore more likely to be receptive to being persuaded by that idea or message. A discrepancy between a higher agreement score and lower emotional resonance score suggests some doubt or uncertainty about the truth of the statement, and that the belief is not fully internalised. According to Self-Determination Theory, the more internalised the motivation, the more autonomous a person will feel enacting the behaviour. Studies show that enduring pro-environmental behaviour is associated with higher levels of autonomous motivation^[89].

As shown in Table 4.1, the statement emphasising a shared role ‘All levels of Scottish society need to take action’ had a very high ERS indicating very strong emotional connection. The statement ‘Climate change is a real and urgent issue that cannot be ignored’ also had a high ERS. Both of these are fairly abstract statements of change.

The other statements had medium ERS, with the lowest score for ‘To tackle climate change, the culture of individuals, businesses etc must all change’. This statement, which makes a direct and specific demand for cultural change at various levels, including personal change, meets with some unconscious resistance.

Respondents also appear to be unconvinced about Scotland’s potential to be a climate change pioneer, about the effect that changes now will have on ‘empowering’ future generations, and about Scotland’s moral responsibility to the world and to current and future generations. With regards to the latter statements (If we don’t act now, we will fail current and future generations of Scots’ and ‘If we don’t act now, Scotland will be failing the world’) the term ‘failing’ is used, which may induce a feeling of guilt. Further research is required to find out if this is a factor in lower emotional resonance scores. These findings, whilst indicative, can be used to inform policy communications.

4.1.2 Goals

87% of respondents to the Weekend 7 member survey support all (38%) or most (49%) of the goals proposed by the Assembly, as shown in Figure 4.2.

A similar proportion of respondents to the Weekend 8 survey supported all or most of the goals (88%).

In the Deltapoll survey, respondents were asked whether they supported or opposed the goals (options: strongly support/oppose, tend to support/oppose, neither support not oppose, don’t know). The wording of the goals was simplified for the purposes of the survey. As shown in Table 4.2, on average, around seven in ten respondents support (strongly and tend to support) the goals^[90].

Table 4.2 shows the Assembly member voting results for comparison. Members voted between Weekends 6 and 7.

Table 4.2 Public and member support for the goals

Simplified Assembly goals for Deltapoll population survey Base: 1917	Deltapoll population survey	Assembly members voting results on goals
	support	agree
Strive for Scotland to be as self-sufficient as possible in terms of food production, low carbon manufacturing, and re-use and reprocessing of materials	77%	91%
Reduce consumption and waste by managing resources better and re-using rather than recycling	77%	97%
Adopt future-proofed quality standards to ensure the all-round sustainability of all buildings	76%	97%
Provide everyone in Scotland with information, education and, lifelong learning so that everyone understands the environmental impact of different actions and choices	76%	92%
Develop work, training and volunteering opportunities to support net zero targets, connect people with nature and rebuild depleted natural resources	75%	91%
Scottish public sector organisations to lead by example by implementing changes of the urgency and scale needed	75%	94%
Create an integrated, accessible and affordable public transport system throughout Scotland to reduce the need for car journeys	75%	93%
Support long term, sustainable business models where people and the environment are considered before profit	74%	91%
Invest in the exploration and early adoption of alternative fuel sources, like electric vehicles, across all modes of travel	73%	93%
Balance the needs of the environment, landowners and communities for sustainable land use that achieves emission reductions	73%	91%
Support localised living in communities by reducing the need to travel far for work, shopping, services and recreation	72%	88%
Develop a fair and transparent tax system that drives carbon emission reductions	70%	85%
Make the majority of existing Scottish homes net zero by 2030 (a net-zero home is one that is able to produce at least as much energy as it uses).	69%	94%
Provide clear and consistent carbon content labelling on all produce, products and services to help people to make informed choices	69%	92%
Give people power and finance to develop local solutions to tackle climate change	67%	91%
Move Scotland’s focus away from economic growth and towards measuring success in terms of thriving people, communities, and nature	60%	83%

4.1.3 Recommendations

After Weekend 7, members were asked to vote on whether they agreed or disagreed that a proposed recommendation should be supported by the Assembly and included in the final report. Members were also encouraged to agree to a recommendation if they supported what is was trying to achieve even if they did not fully agree with the supporting statement. Voting options were: agree, disagree or abstain.

The percentages of those who agreed with each recommendation (out of those who agreed or disagreed) is included in the Assembly report^[91]. Figure 4.3 shows the number of recommendations per percentage band^[92]. 68 of the 81 recommendations (84%) received agreement from at least 80% of members. The recommendations with most disagreement relate to taxation.

Members were also asked about their support for the recommendations in the Weekend 7 member survey, which was issued after Weekend 7 ended, and was completed by members around the same time as they submitted their votes.

As shown in Figure 4.4, 22% of respondents to the Weekend 7 member survey supported all the recommendations with 65% supporting most of the recommendations, and 13% supporting a few. The Weekend 8 survey received similar responses.

Whilst these are two different questions and not all members completed the survey, these results suggest some members responded differently in the voting than in the survey, with a higher level of support for the recommendations in the voting. The trust and social identity factors discussed earlier (see 2.3.3 on topic stream structure) may explain any difference in response. There was an element of trusting that members in other topic streams had followed a rigorous process to develop their recommendations, and there may have been a reluctance to vote against the inclusion of recommendations that others had worked on. So a member may have agreed that a recommendation should be supported by the Assembly as a while and included in the report, but they did not necessarily support it themselves.

As shown in Figure 4.4, almost two thirds of people in the Deltapoll survey support all (14%) or most (50%) of the recommendations, compared with almost nine in ten respondents to the Weekend 7 member survey.

Of those who support all or most of the recommendations, 84% report feeling worried about climate change and 72% feel excited or hopeful about what Scotland can do to tackle climate change.

The Deltapoll survey asked people to select one recommendation that they regarded as most important in helping to achieve the associated goal. The highest scoring recommendations are shown in Table 4.3^[93].

Table 4.3 Public views on most important recommendations per goal

Most important recommendation in helping achieve goal (Base: 1786)

Goal 1 - Ban single use plastics, non-recyclable packaging and stop retailers providing plastic

Goal 2 - Update building standards so that within five years all new homes are built to be highly energy efficient and take account of whole life carbon costs and environmental impact

Goal 3 - Make a grant available to all homeowners by 2025 to bring their house to zero carbon emissions by 2030, prioritising those in fuel poverty

Goal 4 - Introduce a Climate Change Business Bill within the next five years which sets climate impact standards and requires all businesses to assess their carbon emissions, with a new organisation to inspect and ensure compliance with the new standards

Require all public sector buildings, vehicles and supply chains to be net zero by 2030 with an interim target of 75% by 2027

Goal 5 - Make public transport cheaper, or free

Goal 6 - Create convenient electric vehicle charging infrastructure by 2025

Reduce the number of petrol and diesel vehicles by investing in green fuels and give incentives to support the transition to zero tailpipe emission vehicles

Goal 7 - Require businesses to label products to show the carbon footprint of the production process

Goal 8 - Educate everyone about sustainable transport so people understand why they need to shift from private car use to public transport and active travel, and are willing to do so

Goal 9 - Restore peatlands and native woodlands for carbon capture and improving biodiversity

Goal 10 - Make it easier for communities to buy underused local land for climate action, along with guidance on how community owned land should be managed

Goal 11 - Set targets for shops and supermarkets to buy and sell local products at a fair price to farmers and consumers, and consider giving grants to support more localised markets

Goal 12 - Introduce a national training and apprenticeship scheme for new green jobs, accessible to all

Goal 13 - Introduce a 4-day week as standard in sectors where will work best, with compensation for cost of employing more people

Goal 14 - Create thriving town centres by converting existing properties into housing and community spaces rather than building more developments on the edge of towns

Goal 15 - Introduce a carbon tax and dividend scheme, so that for every tonne of CO₂ emitted the polluter pays a tax

Whilst Goal 16 about moving the focus away from economic growth has the lowest public support at 60%, 79% rate its single associated recommendation^[94] as very (34%) or quite important (45%) in helping to achieve the goal.

A similar proportion of the public (74%) agreed with the statement ‘We need to fundamentally change our economic model to tackle climate change”. Agreement is across all demographic groups with slightly lower levels of agreement from Scottish Conservative voters (66%) and the highest earners (65%). This statement was included in the Weekend 8 survey, receiving 86% agreement^[95].

However, a lower proportion of respondents (63%) to the Citizens’ Assembly of Scotland population survey (conducted in March 2021) agreed with this statement, and 55% agreed that ‘it is right to keep growing our economy indefinitely’. These results are contradictory and suggest further research about economic models is needed It is not known the extent to which the Deltapoll and Citizens’ Assembly respondents had thought about these issues previously and are firmly held views.

4.1.4 Profile of less or non-supportive Assembly members and public

There were nine Assembly members who reported supporting only ‘a few’ recommendations in the Weekend 7 survey. There was an almost equal split between those who considered climate change to be an ‘immediate and urgent problem’, and those who thought it ‘not really a problem’ or were ‘not convinced climate change is happening’. Six of these members self-rated their knowledge of climate change at 7 or higher. Six agreed they understood the recommendations in their own topic stream and why they had been proposed, with four agreeing with regards to other topic streams.

Five members disagreed there was enough time to satisfactorily finalise the recommendations, six members disagreed the recommendations had been developed in a fair way, six disagreed their views were reflected in the finalised goals and recommendations, and seven disagreed that information received had been fair and balanced between different viewpoints. Comments in the Weekend 7 survey from members who supported ‘a few’ recommendations included:

“People that are vulnerable and have difficulties are always the first to be overlooked and pushed to the side at the first obstacle, with excuses like, we don't have enough time, or it is too complex, or it is just getting in the way of the big ambition. By not taking enough time to consider the impact of our goals and recommendation on them. I feel that we have let these people down.” (Assembly Member, WE7)

“That the process was rigged from the start with selective questions and evidence. That the views of the assembly were not respected and we were not presented with the evidence that we requested. We were often given insufficient time to properly discuss and consider options. A number of the recommendations we agreed had their wording substantially altered changing their meaning before the final vote” (Assembly Member, WE7)

The public who supported ‘a few’ or none of the recommendations tended to vote Conservative, live in a household with monthly take-home income^[96] of less than £3000, and tended to be aged either 65+ or 16-24. They tended to consider that climate change was an immediate and urgent problem (as do most of the population), and also tended to self-rated their knowledge of climate change as between 5 and 7 out of 10. Almost three quarters of those who supported ‘a few’ recommendations were very or fairly concerned about climate change.

These results indicate that low levels of support for the recommendations cannot be solely attributed to climate denial, low self-rated climate knowledge or lack of understanding about the recommendations. For some of these members, it appears to be associated with their dissatisfaction with aspects of the Assembly process. Further research is needed to understand the reasons why some of the Scottish public supported only a few or none of the recommendations in the Deltapoll survey.

4.1.5 Public awareness and engagement with the Climate Assembly

The Deltapoll population survey was conducted just over a month after publication of the Assembly report. 21% of respondents said they had heard of Scotland’s Climate Assembly. To test the reliability of this result, the survey also included made-up initiatives, and a similar proportion also claimed to have heard of these, which suggests the public awareness results are unreliable.

A separate question was also asked about how much people knew, if anything, about the Assembly. 13% stated they knew ‘a lot’ or ‘a fair amount’ with 14% knowing ‘a little’. Half reported knowing nothing about it.

With regards to type of engagement, four in ten reported no engagement but one in ten had read news articles or heard about it via TV or radio. Media coverage analysis is included in section 5.2 impact on debate.

4.2 Support for Citizens’ Assemblies

Members and the public were asked about their views on civic life and citizens’ assemblies. The results are shown in Table 4.4.

The Deltapoll population survey results show higher levels of public support for citizens’ assemblies than the population survey conducted as part of the Citizens’ Assembly of Scotland research. Taken together, it would seem around six in ten people in Scotland think assemblies are worthwhile and that new ways of engaging people in decision making are needed. It may also be the case that support is increasing over time, but further research on this is required.

Fewer people are supportive of public investment and even less of giving assemblies decision making power. As the latter question does not specify what type of decisions assemblies should be given power to make, this would also benefit from further research.

The Weekend 8 survey results should be treat with caution due to smaller sample size and lower number of Assembly members’ who attended that weekend. However, it is notable that after reflecting on the Scottish Government Response, there was an increase in the proportion of respondents who agreed with the statement ‘Initiatives like Citizens’ Assemblies are just an opportunity for governments to defend choices they’ve already made’ to one in four (see 5.1.3 for more on members views of the Scottish Government Response).

Table 4.4 Member and public civic attitudes

Agreement (‘Strongly agree + Tend to agree’)	pre-Assembly survey Base: 68	WE3 survey Base: 61	WE7 survey Base: 69	WE8 survey Base: 51	Deltapoll population survey Base: 1917	CAoS population survey Base: 1539
Citizens’ Assemblies are a good way of finding out what citizens think about issues.	-	-	-	-	69%	64%
We need to fundamentally change how citizens are involved in decision making	-	-	-	-	67%	58%
Citizens’ Assemblies are a good way of involving people in making recommendations on important issues.	82%	89%	91%	84%	63%	59%
The Scottish Government should invest more in events such as Citizens’ Assemblies.	72%	80%	83%	84%	61%	52%
Citizens’ Assemblies should be given the power to make decisions	-	-	-	-	45%	27%
Initiatives like Citizens’ Assemblies are just an opportunity for governments to defend choices they’ve already made.	18%	20%	16%	25%	41%	30%