A Scotland for the future: opportunities and challenges of Scotland's changing population

Footnotes

1 Scotlands-Economic-and-Fiscal-Forecasts-January-2021 (1).pdf

2 National Indicator Performance | National Performance Framework

3 Scotland's Economic Strategy March 2015 (www.gov.scot)

4 (ONS, LFS)

5 Future Skills Action Plan for Scotland: evidence and analysis annex - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

6 Scotland's Labour Market: People Places and Regions – background tables - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

7 Labour+Market+Monthly+Briefing+-+December+2020.pdf (www.gov.scot)

8 The active dependency ratio is equally important as that includes those who are actually in employment, compared to the dependency ratio which also includes those on working-age benefits.

9 https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-estimates/mid-year-population-estimates

10 https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//statistics/rgar/2019/rgar-2019.pdf

11 Scotland's Population - The Registrar General's Annual Review of Demographic Trends 2015 - Invited Chapter (nrscotland.gov.uk)

12 https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/migration/migration-statistics/migration-flows

13 https://www.gov.scot/publications/uk-immigration-policy-leaving-eu-impacts-scotlands-economy-population-society/

14 https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/life-expectancy/life-expectancy-in-scotland/2017-2019

15 Unjust and avoidable differences in health among population groups are widespread. In 2017-19, comparisons of people who live in our most and least deprived areas of Scotland show a difference of 10.0 years in life expectancy for females and 13.3 years for males. This rises dramatically for healthy life expectancy where the gap is 23.9 years for females and 23.0 years for males. These gaps – broadly determined by the conditions in which we are born, grow, live, work and age - have been increasing. And there is evidence that death rates are increasing in the most deprived areas whilst falling in the least deprived areas - meaning that the gap is getting wider.

16 https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-projections/population-projections-scotland/2018-based

17 https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//statistics/population-projections/2018-based/pop-proj-2018-scot-nat-pub.pdf

18 Projections take into account future legislative changes to the State Pension Age.

19 Births in England and Wales - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)

20 Scottish figures provided by NRS statisticians. England and Wales figures from ONS: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/datasets/birthsummarytableshttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4255510/#:~:text=The%20social%20structure%2C%20religious%20beliefs,rates%20are%20low%2C%20birth%20controlhttps://www.volusonclub.net/empowered-womens-health/4-contributing-factors-to-declining-fertility-rates-a-global-overview/

21 "If not now, when?" The Social Renewal Advisory Board Report (www.gov.scot)

22 The-Promise.pdf (carereview.scot)

23 UNICEF-policy-brief-family-friendly-policies-2019.pdf

24 Scots 'want more control over flexible working' - Business Insider

25 https://timewise.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Timewise-Flexible-Job-Index-2020.pdf

26 A fairer Scotland for women: gender pay gap action plan - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

27 Scottish Household Survey 2019: twenty years of Scotland's people - summary report - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

28 https://www.scotland.org/

29 National life tables, UK - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)

30 RGAR 19 Life Expectancy (nrscotland.gov.uk)

31 https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//statistics/population-projections/2018-based/pop-proj-2018-scot-nat-pub.pdf

32 Projections take into account future legislative changes to the State Pension Age.

33 https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-projections/population-projections-scotland/2018-based

34 https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files/statistics/life-expectancy-at-scotland-level/table1-le-1861-2013.pdf

35 https://www.scotpho.org.uk/population-dynamics/recent-mortality-trends/

36 https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/life-expectancy/life-expectancy-in-scotland/2017-2019

37 Healthy Life Expectancy, 2017-19: Report (nrscotland.gov.uk)

38 https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/determinants-of-health

39 https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/bmjopen/10/11/e038135.full.pdf

40 Promoting an Age-Inclusive Workforce Living, Learning and Earning Longer.pdf (employment-studies.co.uk)

41 ONS, APS, Jul '19 – Jun '20

42 ONS, LFS, Aug-Oct '20

43 Internal migration in Scotland and the UK: trends and policy lessons - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

44 https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/scotlands-facts/leading-causes-of-death-in-scotland

45 https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-public-health-priorities/

46 Why reform is important - The reform programme - Public Health Reform

47 A Fairer Scotland for Older People: framework for action - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

48 A Connected Scotland: our strategy for tackling social isolation and loneliness and building stronger social connections - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

49 NRS Mid-Year Population Estimates Scotland, Mid-2019 www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//statistics/population-estimates/mid-19/mid-year-pop-est-19-report.pdf

50 EAG, Internal migration in Scotland and the UK: trends and policy lessons https://www.gov.scot/publications/internal-migration-scotland-uk-trends-policy-lessons/

51 NRS Migration to and from Scotland www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/migration/migration-statistics/migration-flows/total-migration-to-or-from-scotland

52 NRS Migration between Scotland and overseas by age www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/migration/migration-statistics/migration-flows/migration-between-scotland-and-overseas

53 EAG, Internal migration in Scotland and the UK: trends and policy lessons https://www.gov.scot/publications/internal-migration-scotland-uk-trends-policy-lessons/

54 Mid-2019 Population Estimates Scotland | National Records of Scotland (nrscotland.gov.uk)

55 Scotland's population needs and migration policy: discussion paper - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

56 Migration and productivity: employers' practices, public attitudes and statistical evidence, Rolfe, Rienzo, Lalani, and Portes (2013).

57 Non-UK nationals in Scotland's workforce - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

58 NRS Projected Population of Scotland https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//statistics/population-projections/2018-based/pop-proj-2018-scot-nat-pub.pdf

59 EAG, UK immigration policy after leaving the EU: impacts on Scotland's economy, population and society www.gov.scot/publications/uk-immigration-policy-leaving-eu-impacts-scotlands-economy-population-society

60 Students with Pre-Settled and Settled status under the EU Settlement Scheme will however remain eligible for free tuition.

61 COVID-19: Policies and Impact on Seasonal Agricultural Workers, IOM https://www.iom.int/sites/default/files/documents/seasonal_agricultural_workers_27052020_0.pdf

62 An existential challenge: the financial threat facing Scotland's universities as a result of COVID-19 https://www.universities-scotland.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/COVID-19-HE-finances-v1.0.pdf

63 EMP06: Employment by country of birth and nationality - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)

64 The impact of COVID-19 on fertility plans https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/wr9jb/

65 With the exception of Irish citizens, and family members of those with status under the EUSS.

66 EAG, UK immigration policy after leaving the EU: impacts on Scotland's economy, population and society - July 2020 update https://www.gov.scot/publications/uk-immigration-policy-leaving-eu-impacts-scotlands-economy-population-society-july-2020-update/

67 With the potential exception of a seasonal agricultural workers scheme.

68 Full Review of the Shortage Occupation List, Migration Advisory Committee, May 2019

69 https://www.gov.scot/publications/designing-pilot-remote-rural-migration-scheme-scotland-analysis-policy-options/