Red Rocks and Longay Marine Protected Area: business and regulatory impact assessment

Consultation

Within Government

Consultation has been undertaken within policy colleagues within Marine Scotland, including aquaculture, nature conservation, marine renewables, compliance, and sea fisheries.

Public Consultation

Various stakeholder meetings were held prior to the launch of the public consultation on various issues including the boundary, management measures and socio-economic data.

Virtual drop-in sessions were held during the consultation period to provide local people with information, raise awareness of the proposals and consultation, and answer any questions.

A public consultation ran from 01 February 2022 to 26 April 2022. Consultation responses and feedback from events have been used to finalise the proposals. No changes have been made to the Red Rocks and Longay proposal as a result of responses received.

Options

Option 1 - Do nothing

Option 1 is the 'Do nothing' option; this is the baseline scenario. Under this option, the urgent designation and management measures can only remain in place for up to two years until 2023, after which time they will end. There will be no management measures implemented, and activities which could impact flapper skate could resume, which threatens the conservation of the feature.

The objective of conserving flapper skates will likely not be achieved.

Option 2: Designate site as a Nature Conservation Marine Protected Area and implement a Marine Conservation Order

Under this option, Red Rocks and Longay would be designated as an MPA and management measures would continue beyond 2023 when the urgent designation ends. This would continue the conservation of the feature, and contribute to the wider Scottish, UK, and OSPAR MPA networks. The introduction of management measures at Red Rocks and Longay would ensure that commercial use of the marine environment in the area could not hinder the achievement of the conservation objectives, in particular enabling conservation of the flapper skate nursery area, which would contribute to improving the biological diversity in Scotland's seas.

Under option two the list of prohibited activities outlined in the proposal section of this document would apply.

Sectors and groups affected

The following activities have been identified as present (or possibly present in the future) within the proposed Red Rocks and Longay site and potentially interact with the feature:

• Commercial fisheries
• Tourism, recreational fishing & diving

Benefits

Option 1: Do nothing

No additional benefits are expected to arise from this policy option.

Option 2: Designate site as a Nature Conservation Marine Protected Area (MPA) and implement a Marine Conservation Order (MCO)

MPA designation and introduction of an MCO and associated management measures will help to conserve the range of biodiversity in the Red Rocks and Longay site and for Scotland as a whole, and will contribute to establishing an ecologically coherent network of marine protected areas. This would also safeguard the ecosystem services and benefits provided by the marine environment.

Appropriate management will reduce the risk that the extent, population, structure, natural environmental quality and processes of features protected will decrease or degrade over time.

Contribution to an Ecologically Coherent MPA Network

Scotland's seas support a huge diversity of marine life and habitats, with around 6,500 species of plants and animals, with plenty more to be found in the undiscovered deeps of the north and west of Scotland. Our seas account for 61% of UK waters and remain at the forefront of our food and energy needs, through fishing, aquaculture, oil and gas, and new industries such as renewables, as well as

recreation activities and ecotourism. It is likely that an MPA network will demonstrate beneficial effects greater than the sum of the benefits from individual areas.

MPA designation will help to conserve the range of biodiversity within Red Rocks and Longay and for Scotland as a whole, and will contribute to establishing an ecologically coherent network of marine protected areas.

Ecosystem Services benefits

Ecosystems are very complex and it is thought that the more complex an ecosystem is, the more resilient it is to change. Therefore, if it is damaged or if a species or habitat is removed from that ecosystem, the chances of survival for those services reduce as the ecosystem becomes weaker. However, by conserving or allowing the species and habitats that make up that ecosystem to recover, we can be more confident of the continuation of the long-term benefits the marine environment provides.

Non-use value of the natural environment is the benefit people get simply from being aware of a diverse and sustainable marine environment even if they do not themselves 'use it'. We take for granted many of the things we read about or watch, such as bright colourful fish, reefs and strange deep sea curiosities. To lose them would be a loss to future generations that will not be able to experience them. Due to the scientific uncertainty involved, it is challenging to put a true value on this but the high quality experience and increasing knowledge of Scotland's seas can be better preserved through measures such as MPAs. It is expected that non-use value will be attained as a result of designation from the knowledge that the features are receiving adequate protection as well as the wider conservation objectives that designation supports.

In the case of Red Rocks and Longay, it is estimated that effective management of protected features may provide wider benefits over and above these non-use values society places on a healthy and productive marine environment. The measures are likely to support continued egg laying by flapper skate that depend on boulder substrate located within the site as nursery habitats.

Annex A summarises the ecosystem benefits that can be derived from designation and effective management of the Red Rocks and Longay MPA. This assessment has been informed by nature conservation advisors from NatureScot.

Flapper Skate

Flapper skate (Dipturus intermedius) and blue skate (Dipturus flossada) were considered until recently to be a single species known as 'Common skate complex' (Dipturus batis), however these are now known to be separate species. Flapper skate was historically abundant in the North-east Atlantic and widely distributed in the seas surrounding the British Isles, however its range has reduced significantly and catch rates declined throughout the 20th century. Currently, flapper skate distribution is known to encompass the southern coast of Norway, all Scottish coastlines, north-eastern England, the island of Ireland, northern France, Portugal and the Azores, with sites off the west coast of Scotland thought to be a stronghold for the species.

Common skate complex is listed on the OSPAR Threatened and/or Declining Species and Habitats List and the IUCN Red List as Critically Endangered. Flapper skate is also a Priority Marine Feature.

This is the first flapper skate egg-laying habitat found in Scotland and is therefore of national importance. It is likely that the site has been in use for over two years and that multiple females are using the egg nursery.

Although there is a prohibition of commercial landing of flapper skate, they are a popular species for recreational anglers, due to their large size. The practice of catch-and-release fishing for flapper skate is also a useful source of data on the species' life history and a long-running tagging programme has been undertaken in the Loch Sunart to the Sound of Jura MPA.

Tourism, Recreational Fishing & Diving

Coastal areas are well represented when considering the locations of various tourist related sites within Scotland with a range of site types present in all regions including the west coast. Red Rocks and Longay and wider Inner Sound itself is a popular destination for recreational boating and tourism, including dive tourism. Where impacts to recreational angling have been identified for the site, there could also be consequential impacts on tourism. However, tourism may also benefit from the designation of the MPA directly and indirectly as a result of benefits to activities such as recreational boating, kayaking, diving & wildlife watching.

Anchoring of vessels is prohibited in the site which may impact tourism for diving although due to uncertainty around number of future instances, it is not possible to include a detailed assessment of these costs.

Costs

Option 1: Do nothing

This option is not expected to incur any additional costs to the sectors and groups outlined above. However, it should be noted that the societal cost of not designating Red Rocks and Longay as an MPA could be both large and irreversible. The absence of management measures to conserve the identified feature may produce future economic and social costs in terms of increased marine habitat and biodiversity degradation. The option to not designate holds the potential to undermine the overall ecological coherence of the Scottish MPA network.

Option 2: Designate site as a Nature Conservation Marine Protected Area (MPA) and implement a Marine Conservation Order (MCO)

Costs have been evaluated based on the implementation of management measures. Where feasible costs have been quantified, where this has not been possible costs are presented qualitatively. All quantified costs have been discounted in line with HM Treasury guidance using a discount rate of 3.5% to reflect societies preference for current over future consumption. All costs are presented in 2020 prices.

Commercial Fisheries

Proposed management measures will further the conservation objectives of the protected features. The measures will apply across the entire footprint of the MPA.

Table 1: Summary of Management Measures

Gear Type	Management Measures
All demersal mobile gears	Deployment of fishing gear is prohibited
All demersal static gears	Deployment of fishing gear is prohibited
All pelagic gears	No management

The Red Rocks and Longay MPA proposal is located wholly within ICES rectangle 43E4. The tables below present the estimated loss of landings for under 12m and over 12m vessels. The loss of landings is estimated by averaging landings over the period 2015-2019, in order to smooth year-on-year fluctuations.

For vessels under 12m, the area of the MPA as a proportion of the ICES rectangle has been used as a multiplier. Red Rocks and Longay has an area of 11.85km² and the rectangle has a sea area of 643km², giving a multiplier of 0.018 for vessels under 12m. In other words, the area of Red Rocks and Longay MPA is approximately 1.8% of the total ICES rectangle.

For vessels over 12m, Vessel Monitoring Systems (VMS) data has been used to estimate the value of landings attributed to the MPA based on previous fishing activity in this area.

Table 2: Estimated annual value of under 12m fisheries in ICES rectangle 43E4 and the Red Rocks and Longay MPA as derived from iFISH (2015-2019 in 2020 prices) (£Million)

Gear/Sector	Estimated rectangle value	Estimated MPA value	Estimated loss of fishing value associated with management measures
Under 12m creels	£2.967m	£0.055m	£0.055m
Under 12m dredges	£0.003m	£0.000m	£0.000m
Under 12m trawls	£0.195m	£0.004m	£0.004m

Table 3: Estimated annual value of over 12m fisheries in Red Rocks and Longay MPA as derived from VMS data (2015-2019 in 2020 prices) (£Million)

Gear/Sector	Estimated MPA value	Estimated loss of fishing value associated with managementmeasures	Gear/Sector
Over 12m creels	£0.001m	£0.001m	Over 12m creels
Over 12m dredges	£0.003m	£0.003m	Over 12m dredges
Over 12m trawls	£0.000m	£0.000m	Over 12m trawls

Table 4: Estimated total annual value of commercial fisheries in Red Rocks and Longay MPA (2015-2019 in 2020 prices) (£Million)

Gear/Sector	Estimated MPA value	Estimated loss of fishing value associated with managementmeasures
Under 12m	£0.058m	£0.058m*
Over 12m	£0.005m	£0.005m
Total	£0.063m	£0.063m

* There was an error in the numbers presented in the partial BRIA at consultation. The correct numbers are lower and are now accurately presented above.

Table 5: Economic Costs of Designation & Management of Red Rocks and Longay MPA (£Million)

Scenario	Option 1 : Do nothing	Option 2 : Designate site
Assumptions for cost impacts	No designation and no management measures	Prohibition of mobile gears and static gears
Description of one-off costs	£0.000m	£0.000m
Description of recurring costs	£0.000m	Loss of all commercial fisheries activity within the MPA area (annual, 2020 prices) £0.063m
Description of non- quantified costs	£0.000m	Displacement effects, including conflict with other fishing vessels, environmental impacts in targeting new areas, longer steaming times and increased fuel costs, changes in costs and earnings, gear development and adaptation costs, and additional quota costs

Commercial fisheries costs are presented below in terms of Gross Value Added (GVA). GVA more accurately reflects the wider value of the sector to the local area and economy beyond the market value of the landed catch. Stating costs purely in terms of landed value would overstate the true economic cost of not fishing. Social costs are also presented in terms of the reduction in full-time equivalent (FTE) employment. It is also possible that fishing effort not continuing in the area could be transferred to other locations resulting in reduced loss of income to vessels currently operating in the Red Rocks and Longay site, but with potential for costs to areas to which effort is displaced.

The GVA impact is estimated using data on the percentage of fishing income to GVA for different vessel types^[1]. The GVA impact is then divided by the value of GVA per FTE for each vessel type to estimate the employment impact.

It is important to note that fishing activity in the area may be linked to other economic activity, including tourism, and that such diversification is important for local economies. However, as direct impacts have been judged to be very small, it is not possible to meaningfully quantify these wider impacts for the purposes of this BRIA. GVA impacts in the table below therefore only include direct impacts.

Table 6: Quantified Costs of Designation & Management of Red Rocks and Longay MPA (£Million)

Scenario	Option 1 : Do nothing	Option 2 : Designate site
Average annual change to GVA (2020 prices)	£0.000m	£0.032m*
Present value of total change in GVA (2022- 2041)	£0.000m	£0.473m*
Direct reduction in employment (FTE)	0.0 FTE jobs	0.6 FTE jobs

* There was an error in the numbers presented in the partial BRIA at consultation. The correct numbers are lower and are now accurately presented above.

The estimates of costs are explicitly based upon conservative assumptions to ensure an appropriate degree of caution. For example:

• It is assumed that where fishing activity is impacted, it ceases altogether as opposed to relocating elsewhere. In reality, some activity is likely to be displaced rather than lost entirely.
• Activity is assumed to be evenly distributed across ICES rectangles.
• Costs are not offset against any improvement in stocks that may occur over time as a result of the MPA designation.
• They do not factor in the possible opportunity for fishers to trade quota or effort to mitigate the direct impact.

The results presented here represent a worst case scenario. In reality vessels are likely to react to any management measures in place in order to maintain profitability (i.e. by changing target species/gear type). Displacement could well negate some of the cost impacts stated above (i.e. by fishing elsewhere), but conversely could also add to them (i.e. the extra fuel cost potentially associated with fishing elsewhere).

This uncertainty is the reasoning behind not attempting to quantify this cost impact. Other non-quantified costs include: potential conflict with other fishing vessels, environmental consequences of targeting new areas, longer steaming times and increased fuel costs, changers in costs and earnings, gear development and adaptation costs and additional cost quotas.

Public Sector

The decision to designate Red Rocks and Longay as a Nature Conservation MPA and introduce an MCO would result in costs being incurred by the public sector in the following areas:

• Compliance & enforcement
• Site condition surveys

Site condition survey cost estimates for the ongoing monitoring of the site have been provided by NatureScot. An estimate for the annual costs associated with compliance & enforcement has been informed by Marine Scotland compliance.

Table 7: Site-Specific Public Sector Costs (£Million, 2022-2041)

Scenario	Option 1 : Do nothing	Option 2 : Designate site
Costs	£m	£m
Compliance & enforcement	0.000	0.900
Site condition surveys	0.000	0.160-0.200
Total quantified costs	0.000	1.060-1.100
Average annual costs	0.000	0.053-0.055

Total Costs

Total quantified costs are presented In present value terms at 2020 prices. These relate to the designation of the MPA and the implementation of the MCO. Commercial fisheries cost to Scottish vessels are presented in terms of GVA.

Table 8: Total Present Value of Quantified Costs (£Million, 2022-2041)

Scenario	Option 1 : Do nothing	Option 2 : Designate site
Sector/Group	£m	£m
Commercial Fisheries	0.000	0.473*
Public Sector	0.000	0.780-0.809
Total Present Value of Quantified Costs	0.000	1.253-1.282*

* There was an error in the numbers presented in the partial BRIA at consultation. The correct numbers are lower and are now accurately presented above.

Table 9: Total Non-Quantified Costs

Scenario	Option 1 : Do nothing	Option 2 : Designate site
Sector/Group
Tourism, recreational fishing & diving	None	Potential costs associated with prohibition of recreational fishing and anchoring of vessels and the MPA site that due to uncertainty are unable to be quantified
Commercial fisheries	Possible degradation of feature which could have negative impacts on wider ecosystem and recovery of fish and shellfish stocks	Displacement effects, including conflict with other fishing vessels, environmental impacts in targeting new areas, longer steaming times and increased fuel costs, changes in costs and earnings, gear development and adaptation costs, and additional quota costs