The Promise Data and Evidence Group Workplan: July 2026 – June 2027

4. Sub-group Three: Long-term Projects

4.1 Projects committed to in previous workplan

Children’s Health and Monitoring the Promise (CHaMP)

The DEG’s year one workplan committed to supporting the CHaMP linkage project, led by Public Health Scotland. Initial aims focused on testing the feasibility of developing a functional, long‑term health surveillance system for care experienced children and young people. Indicative milestones included achieving secure data linkage, developing an agreed approach to classifying care experience, and reporting on an initial set of health and healthcare access indicators.

Exploration of longitudinal studies

Subgroup 3 committed to exploring longitudinal evidence relevant to the health and wellbeing of looked after children and young people. This included conducting a rapid evidence search of reports and publications drawing on Scottish and UK longitudinal surveys, alongside more detailed analysis of an agreed shortlist of data sources. This output was then to be used to inform priorities and options for future analysis.

Development of a Promise Areas of Research Interest (ARI)

The development of a Promise‑specific ARI comprised scoping and assessing the feasibility of producing the ARI, and agreeing topics and populations for consideration. Subsequent indicative milestones were provided around drafting and publication.

4.2 Summary of progress in 2025/26

Children’s Health and Monitoring the Promise (CHaMP)

Milestones set out for the end of summer 2025 and the end of 2025 have been met. Members of the Data and Evidence Group contributed to an indicator prioritisation exercise during 2025, based on the feasibility, usefulness and relevance of various indicators and health outcomes. Scottish Government analysts have also provided advice on care experience classifications, to ensure coherence with other outcomes reporting.

Exploration of longitudinal studies

In December 2025, the Data and Evidence Group published a paper exploring how longitudinal quantitative data can be used to better understand the health and wellbeing of care experienced children and young people. This included a rapid evidence search and detailed analysis of longitudinal data sources.

One of the key recommendations from the paper was to extend exploratory analysis using Scotland’s Census. The DEG submitted a response to the 2031 Census consultation in September 2025, and analysts are working with colleagues in National Records of Scotland (NRS) to explore the value and feasibility of including questions related to care experience in the 2031 Census. Analysts will continue to support this work as it develops.

In parallel a discrete piece of analysis is being conducted using Census 2022 communal establishment data as a proxy for children looked after in residential care settings, to support descriptive analysis of health outcomes for children living in those settings. This piece of analysis will be published 28^th July 2026.

Development of a Promise Areas of Research Interest (ARI)

Work is progressing in line with indicative milestones, and the decision was taken at the end of 2025 to move forward with the development of a dedicated Promise ARI. In early 2026, agreement was reached on thematic areas, population groups, and types of research questions for consideration. Early indicative research questions have since been developed and are now subject to review.

4.3 Work programme for July 2026 – Jun 2027

Promise Areas of Research Interest (ARI)

Completion of the Promise Areas of Research Interest will remain a central strand of Subgroup 3’s work during 2026/27. Following publication, emphasis will shift to supporting effective use of the ARI.

A key part of this phase is supporting awareness and uptake of the ARI within the research community, and helping ensure that subsequent research activity is aligned with identified evidence gaps and analytical needs.

Milestones:

By autumn 2026:

• Publication of the Promise ARI.

Post-publication:

• Engagement with ADR Scotland to support dissemination of the ARI to relevant academic and applied research communities.
• Ongoing engagement to support awareness of the ARI and consideration of research proposals or projects developed in response, including those seeking to use linked administrative data.

Children’s Health and Monitoring the Promise (CHaMP)

Public Health Scotland will produce a report which includes an assessment of the success and quality of the linkage methodology, documenting limitations, and undertaking proof-of-concept analysis of school-age immunisation uptake to explore potential inequalities in outcomes. CHaMP continues to be recognised as an important mechanism for strengthening the evidence base on children’s health, with the potential to support more consistent and timely monitoring of progress towards The Promise.

New population focus: transitions into adulthood

The Children (Care, Care Experience, and Services Planning) (Scotland) Act 2024 introduces changes that increase the need for clear, accessible evidence relating to people transitioning from care into adulthood. These include provisions relating to continuing care and aftercare, extended entitlements and support up to age 26 for those with care experience, duties connected to services planning, and a stronger emphasis on monitoring outcomes for people with care experience.

It is recognised that the impacts of care experience can be lifelong, and that young people require support before, during and after leaving care as they begin adult life. These developments do not indicate a higher priority for this population relative to others within the Data and Evidence Group’s remit. However, they do increase the need to understand whether existing data and evidence are sufficient to support implementation, monitoring and evaluation. This includes understanding population size and characteristics, pathways through education, employment and housing, health and wellbeing outcomes, and patterns of service use before, during and after transition points.

Work during 2026/27 will focus on scoping this evidence landscape, and subsequently identifying opportunities for new analysis.

Milestones:

Summer 2026:

• Scoping activity across analytical service divisions within Scottish Government alongside engagement with external data, research and analytical bodies, to identify:
  • Definition of population group
  • Key research and analytical priorities relating to transitions into adulthood
  • Evidence gaps and limitations in existing data sources
  • Opportunities to improve data linkage, analytical approaches or routine publications.

Autumn 2026:

• A summary of findings from this scoping work to be produced and taken to the Data and Evidence Group for consideration, to inform any subsequent analytical work in this area.