GDP Monthly Estimate: May 2025

In May, the largest contributor to headline GDP was Manufacturing, which contributed -0.4 percentage points to the overall contraction. The cessation of oil refining activity at the Grangemouth oil refinery in 2025 Q2 contributed to the reduced output in the Manufacturing sector.

The industries which made the largest positive contribution to overall GDP were Professional, Scientific and Technical services, and Information & Communication, which each contributed around 0.2 percentage points of growth to headline GDP.

In May, output in the Production sector is estimated to have contracted by 3.0%, while Services sector output grew by 0.3%. Construction sector output contracted by 0.3% in May.

As reported by the Office for National Statistics there were some common themes that were anecdotally reported (as part of the Monthly Business Survey (MBS) for production and services) to have played a part in performance across different industries in May 2025. However it is difficult to quantify the exact impact.

Businesses who export to the US cited the changes in tariffs on exports as a possible reason for reduced output in May 2025. These comments mainly centered on the manufacture of motor vehicles and wholesale industries but were also cited in other areas of manufacturing.