GDP Monthly Estimate: April 2026

In April the low level sectors with the largest positive contribution to three-month GDP growth were Retail, Wholesale & Motor Trade and Health & Social Work, which contributed around 0.1 percentage points respectively towards overall growth. The largest negative contributor was Administrative and Support Services, which contributed around -0.1 percentage points towards three-month GDP growth.

In the three months to April 2026, compared to the three months to January 2025, output in the Production sector is estimated to have contracted by 0.2%, while the Services sector is estimated to have grown by 0.1%. Construction sector output grew by 1.5% in the three months to April.

As reported by the Office for National Statistics, there were some common themes that were anecdotally reported, across the UK, to have played a part in performance across different industries in April 2026, as part of the monthly business surveys, although it is difficult to quantify their exact impact.

The outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, which started at the end of February, was cited by various businesses in terms of April 2026 data. Some manufacturing industries, wholesale, warehousing and support activities for transportation, accommodation and travel agencies stated that the conflict in the Middle East had an impact, in terms of reduced turnover in April 2026.

A common theme of the comments received was the increase in prices because of the Middle East conflict. These comments were mainly for energy and fuel costs, with some suggesting an impact seen in April 2026 and also suggesting an impact for future months. ONS reported that "crude oil and refined petroleum products provided the largest upward contributions to change in the annual inflation rates for input and output prices" in the Producer price inflation, UK: April 2026 bulletin, published on 20 May 2026.

This is also supported by the Scottish Government’s recent Business insights and conditions in Scotland. An increase in prices of goods bought in April 2026 compared to March 2026 was reported by 39% of trading businesses. This was broadly similar to March 2026, but was 15 percentage points higher than February 2026 and was at its highest proportion reported since April 2025.

Figure 2:  Retail, Wholesale & Motor Trade and Health & Social Work contributed 0.1 percentage points respectively towards the three-month GDP growth of 0.1%

Industry contribution to three-month GDP growth, April 2026