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Monthly economic brief: July 2020

The monthly economic brief provides a summary of latest key economic statistics, forecasts and analysis on the Scottish economy.

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Output

Footnote [1]

The coronavirus pandemic and the introduction of physical distancing and lockdown measures have had a rapid and severe impact on global and domestic economic output in 2020.

  • Scotland's GDP fell by 2.5% in Q1 2020, driven mainly by a 5.0% fall in output in March as the spread of coronavirus and introduction of lockdowns slowed economic activity.
  • This was evident across the UK as a whole with GDP falling 2.2% in Q1 2020 and internationally with US GDP falling 1.3% and Eurozone GDP falling 3.6% over the quarter.
  • In April, the first full month of lockdown, Scotland's GDP fell by a further 18.9% over the month, similar to the pattern seen across the UK as a whole, in which GDP fell by 20.4%.
  • Scotland's output fell by an unprecedented amount in nearly every industry of the economy in April. The most significant falls have been seen in sectors that have predominantly closed and in which working from home has not been possible; for example manufacturing, construction, and consumer facing services such as retail, accommodation and food services.
  • When viewed across the two months of March and April, Scotland's GDP has fallen 23%.
Quarterly GDP Growth in Scotland and the UK
Bar chart showing quarterly GDP growth in Scotland and the UK between 2016 and 2020.
Quarterly GDP Growth – US & Euro Area
Line graph showing quarterly GDP growth in the US and Euro Area between 2016 and 2020.
Monthly Change in Scotland’s GDP across sectors
Monthly GDP growth in Scotland in March and April 2020

Contact

Email: OCEABusiness@gov.scot

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