Migration: supporting the future of Scotland's economy and communities

Supporting Scotland’s Communities, Economy and Future Population

Supporting communities across Scotland

Scotland’s demographic and economic circumstances mean that migration is an important part of supporting sustainable communities, public services and long-term economic growth.

Population ageing, low birth rates and, in some areas, the outmigration of younger people are reducing the size of Scotland’s working-age population. These trends affect not only labour supply, but also school rolls, public services, community organisations, businesses, and the long-term sustainability of places and communities across Scotland. The challenges are often most acute in rural and island communities, where population decline and ageing populations can threaten the viability of local economies and services.^[12]

These should not be seen solely as local challenges. Rural and island communities support industries, supply chains and economic activity that benefit Scotland and the wider UK. Their contribution extends far beyond their population size. In 2024, Scotland accounted for 8.1% of total employment across Great Britain but 17.8% of employment in agriculture, forestry and fishing.^[13] In Scotland’s islands and remote rural areas, these sectors account for 16.5% of all employment.^[14]

An immigration system designed primarily around UK-wide averages may not always respond effectively to these local circumstances. Occupations that are essential to sustaining particular communities can appear less significant when viewed through national labour market indicators, despite their importance to local economies, public services and wider UK supply chains.

For Scotland, migration is therefore about more than addressing labour shortages. It supports population sustainability, public services, schools, local economies and community resilience. Communities require people across a range of occupations, sectors and life stages. Economic and social sustainability depends not only on highly skilled professionals, but also on care workers, hospitality staff, agricultural workers, tradespeople, entrepreneurs, students and families.

Improving domestic skills, increasing labour market participation and boosting productivity will remain important.^[15] The Scottish Government is already taking action to address these key issues, including working with local authorities and economic development agencies to deliver our Addressing Depopulation Action Plan.^[16] This programme of activity is now into its third year and recently saw a funding expansion of nearly 50% to enable more local areas and regions to implement tailored activity to support local populations. This work, driven by partners’ priorities, focuses on a range of areas including housing, childcare, skills, apprenticeships, talent attraction and more.

However, Scotland’s demographic challenge cannot be addressed through these measures alone. In many communities, employers face recruitment difficulties not because jobs or training opportunities are absent, but because there are simply fewer people of working age available – a situation which reflects the structural legacy of Scotland’s history of outmigration.^[17]

Attraction and retention

Migration already makes a significant contribution to Scotland’s economy. People who move to Scotland fill vacancies, support businesses, pay taxes and spend money in local communities.

Research by the Diffley Partnership and 56 Degrees North found that 68% of Scottish businesses believe migration is vital to addressing critical skills shortages, while 76% support allowing sectors experiencing shortages to recruit workers from overseas.^[18] Similarly, Migration Policy Scotland polling found that a clear majority of respondents viewed immigration as helping to fill jobs that are difficult to recruit for in Scotland and supported maintaining or increasing migration through key work and study routes.^[19]

Analysis by the Migration Observatory found that the employment rate for working-age migrants was 77% in 2025, compared with 75% for the UK-born population.^[20]

Migration also contributes to innovation, research and entrepreneurship. Scotland’s universities and colleges provide a clear example. International students, researchers and academics strengthen global partnerships, enhance Scotland’s international reputation and contribute significantly to local economies. Research commissioned by Universities UK International indicates that international students studying in Scotland during the 2021-22 academic year contributed almost £4.21 billion to the UK economy.^[21]

Scotland also operates within an increasingly competitive international market for workers, students, researchers and entrepreneurs. Individuals deciding where to live, work or study consider a wide range of factors, including visa accessibility, opportunities for family members, prospects for settlement and whether a destination is welcoming and supportive.

Maintaining access to international talent is particularly important for sectors central to Scotland’s future economic success, including renewable energy, life sciences, advanced manufacturing, digital technology and higher education.

Scotland’s Migration Service provides information and support to Scottish employers, and to investors looking to recruit in Scotland, on accessing and navigating the UK immigration system.^[22] It launched in 2024 and contracts are in place through March 2027. We will launch a procurement exercise in autumn of 2026 to maintain the service in the years ahead, and will continue to align interventions encouraging more people to move to Scotland with the needs of key target business growth sectors.

Impact of recent immigration system changes

Recent immigration policy changes have increasingly focused access to migration routes on higher salaries, graduate-level occupations and narrower definitions of economic contribution.^[23]

The increase in the Skilled Worker salary threshold^[24] to £41,700 in 2025 created challenges for employers in sectors and locations where wages are typically lower than the UK average, but recruitment needs remain acute. This is particularly relevant in rural and island communities, where employers often face persistent labour shortages despite offering competitive salaries within local labour markets.

While salary and qualification levels may be useful indicators in some circumstances, they do not capture the full range of contributions required to support Scotland’s economy, public services and communities. Occupations essential to healthcare, social care, food and drink production and local service provision may struggle to meet national salary thresholds despite experiencing clear recruitment difficulties.^{[25], [26]}

The Home Office’s decision to replace the Immigration Salary List (ISL) with the Temporary Shortage List (TSL) from the end of 2026 further narrows access to visas for occupations below RQF Level 6. Eligibility is limited to roles supporting the UK Government’s Industrial Strategy or deemed critical to national infrastructure.^[27]

The Scottish Government is concerned that this approach does not adequately reflect Scotland’s labour market and demographic circumstances. The Migration Advisory Committee (MAC), who were commissioned by the Home Office to review the design of the TSL, has proposed a formal mechanism through which occupations could be reviewed for inclusion on the Temporary Shortage List outside the standard review cycle. Such a mechanism would be important in ensuring that genuine shortages can be addressed in a timely manner.

Similarly, given that the MAC was unable to recommend any roles for the full three-year period of TSL access, it is imperative that engagement with sectors, and support for the development of workforce plans and the associated evidence base, is strengthened ahead of the ‘light touch’ jobs plan review recommended to take place prior to the expiration of the existing 18-month access period.

The proposed design of the Temporary Shortage List also raises wider concerns. Restrictions on dependant family members, the temporary nature of the route and uncertainty around progression to settlement may reduce its attractiveness to prospective workers and make it harder for employers to recruit and retain staff. These conditions risk creating barriers not only for recruitment, but also for long-term retention.

Building lives in Scotland

Attracting people is only the first step in encouraging settlement in Scotland. Given that population growth is likely to be increasingly dependent on migration, retaining people and enabling them to settle and build long-term lives here is equally important.

Settlement provides certainty for individuals and families and enables people to participate in their communities, careers and futures.^[28] It can be argued that the design of the current immigration system works against the interests of retention. Recent years have seen the cost of obtaining and maintaining immigration status increase significantly.^[29] Visa application fees, repeat renewal costs, settlement fees and the Immigration Health Surcharge can create substantial financial burdens for individuals and families seeking to establish lives in Scotland for the long-term.

The design of immigration routes can also influence long-term outcomes. Where immigration status is tied closely to a single employer, workers may face barriers to changing jobs or pursuing career progression.^[30] Family visa restrictions and financial requirements can create additional challenges for people considering whether to remain in the UK over the longer term.^[31]

Earned settlement

The Home Office Earned Settlement proposals raise even more significant concerns about retention and settlement. Published in 2025, the proposals would make settlement increasingly conditional on factors such as income, employment and integration, while potentially extending the standard route to settlement from five years to ten years.^[32]

The Scottish Government is concerned that these proposals would make settlement more complex, uncertain and difficult for many migrants and their families to achieve. A longer route to settlement would increase both uncertainty and cumulative costs for migrants and their families.^[33] Evidence suggests that earlier access to permanent status supports integration, participation and long-term economic outcomes^[34] and temporary status can contribute to lower wellbeing and increased stress.^[35]

The Royal College of Nursing’s survey on the proposed changes also highlighted retention concerns, with 60% of respondents who had not yet secured settlement indicating that a longer route to settlement would be very likely to affect their decision to remain in the UK.^[36]

The Scottish Government has consistently argued that contribution should not be measured solely by income. People contribute through work, caring responsibilities, family life, volunteering, entrepreneurship and participation in communities. Some of the occupations most important to Scotland’s economy and public services are not among the highest paid. A system that increasingly prioritises salary as a proxy for contribution risks undervaluing those wider benefits.

Navigating the immigration system

A fair immigration system must also be one that people can understand and use effectively.

The effectiveness of an immigration system depends not only on who is eligible, but on whether migrants, employers and institutions can successfully navigate the routes available to them. Frequent policy changes, multiple visa categories and increasingly complex requirements can create uncertainty and make long-term planning more difficult.

Research has found that whilst people using the EU Settlement Scheme (EUSS) reported a generally straightforward experience, those using other immigration routes were likely to encounter complexity and rely on external support to complete applications.^[37] However, the requirement for third sector organisations to still provide direct support to individuals applying for settlement via the EUSS over five years since Brexit demonstrates that the operation of the scheme provides barriers to integration for people with complex circumstances, too.

Many migrants now require specialist advice simply to understand immigration requirements and processes. Further research has highlighted continuing pressures on immigration and asylum advice services, including high levels of demand and difficulties recruiting and retaining specialist advisers.^[38]

The increasing move towards digital immigration processes presents both opportunities and challenges. Users of eVisas are reportedly more likely to experience difficulties proving their status to employers, landlords and service providers. The research also highlighted challenges for some users, including older people, disabled people, those with lower levels of digital literacy and individuals with limited English-language proficiency.^{[39], [40]}

Accessibility is therefore about more than the existence of immigration routes. Individuals and organisations must be able to understand requirements, access reliable information and have confidence that the system can be navigated successfully.

The cost of migration further affects accessibility. Migration Policy Scotland^[41] and the Institute for Public Policy Research^[42] have highlighted the impact of immigration-related costs on migrant households, while the Royal Society has found UK immigration costs to be substantially higher than those in many comparable countries.^[43]

These burdens are also felt by employers, universities, colleges and public services. The Scottish Government’s evaluation of Scotland’s Migration Service found that many employers viewed the immigration system as complex and difficult to navigate, often relying on specialist advice to understand sponsorship requirements and maintain compliance.^[44]

A fair immigration system should be accessible and proportionate for migrants, employers and institutions alike. It should assess people on the contribution they can make rather than their ability to absorb increasingly high costs or navigate unnecessary complexity.

Compliance and public confidence

The Scottish Government recognises that effective immigration controls are an essential part of a well-functioning immigration system. Public confidence depends on robust measures to address exploitation, trafficking, organised crime, fraud and deliberate abuse of immigration routes.

However, confidence is strengthened not only through enforcement, but through fairness, transparency and proportionality.

The Windrush scandal demonstrated the consequences of immigration policies that lose sight of those principles. The Windrush Lessons Learned Review^[45] concluded that the failings were foreseeable and avoidable, highlighting the importance of accountability, scrutiny and understanding the impact of immigration decisions on people’s lives.

The Scottish Government supports a proportionate approach to enforcement. There is a clear distinction between serious criminality and deliberate abuse of the immigration system, and situations involving administrative non-compliance, technical breaches, vulnerability, employer failings or difficulties navigating increasingly complex immigration rules.

Similarly, restrictions should be evidence-based and targeted at the specific problems they seek to address. The Migration Advisory Committee’s review of the Graduate^[46] route found no evidence of significant abuse and concluded that the route was operating broadly as intended. By contrast, broader measures such as nationality-based visa restrictions in the form of so called ‘visa brakes’^[47] risk creating barriers for individuals seeking to use migration routes lawfully and in good faith.

Digital checks

Digital checks already play a role in supporting compliance with the immigration system. The introduction of digital right to work checks^[48] by the UK Government demonstrates how digital status verification may have the potential to administer immigration permissions in a secure and proportionate way.

As immigration systems continue to evolve, the Scottish Government would welcome engagement with the Home Office on how digital identity and status verification could support future regionally tailored migration arrangements.

Given that existing immigration controls already rely on digital checks and verification processes to assess eligibility for a range of rights and entitlements, including conditions attached to immigration status, this suggests that the UK Government is confident that digital systems are capable of supporting compliance with differentiated immigration conditions and could therefore provide a practical means of administering any future Scotland-specific migration route.

Secure digital verification has the potential to reduce administrative burdens, improve compliance and simplify status checks, supporting the introduction of future Scotland-specific migration routes by providing a secure mechanism through which immigration permissions could be linked to residence and employment requirements in Scotland.

To address previously raised concerns about challenges associated with eVisas and digital immigration status, it would be vital for any such systems to be accessible by design, secure user privacy, and be supported by non-digital alternatives.

Conclusion

The Scottish Government supports an immigration system that is fair both to those who use it and to the people of Scotland.

For Scotland, migration is not solely a labour market issue. It is an important contributor to population sustainability, public services, economic growth and community resilience. A successful immigration system should therefore recognise the value of migration across a broad range of occupations and sectors, support people to build long-term lives in Scotland, remain accessible and affordable, and maintain public confidence through effective and proportionate controls.

Recent policy changes have increasingly focused on restricting access, increasing costs and narrowing routes to settlement. The Scottish Government’s view is that a fair immigration system should instead seek to balance effective control with Scotland’s demographic and economic needs, ensuring that migration policy supports sustainable communities, thriving public services and long-term prosperity. The next section of this paper outlines the Scottish Government’s proposals for tailored migration system routes which promote these ambitions and will support demographic health and economic growth within Scotland.