Scottish Sentencing and Penal Policy Commission report: Justice That Works
The final report and recommendations of the independent Commission on Sentencing and Penal Policy 'Justice that Works'.
Annex C: Prison population pathway
Strategic ambition
The Commission’s ambition is for Scotland to move towards a more sustainable use of custody, broadly aligned with European norms. Adjusted for Scotland’s population, this corresponds to an indicative prison population of around 5,775.
This number is illustrative, not a target or cap. It is intended to signal the scale of change implied by the Commission’s recommendations and to support discussion about long-term direction.
Context and approach
Scotland does not have validated long-term prison population modelling. The figures presented here are therefore indicative, designed to support strategic understanding rather than operational planning.
Purpose of the pathway
Commissioners debated carefully whether it was appropriate to include an indicative long-term prison population pathway at all. Some expressed concern about uncertainty and the risk of misinterpretation. Others emphasised the value of being explicit about scale and direction, rather than relying on abstract commitments to reform.
On balance, Commissioners agreed to include an illustrative pathway to make the scale of change more tangible, and demonstrate that progress depends on sustained, system-wide reform rather than isolated measures.
Indicative population composition
Figures below are rounded and indicative and are intended to illustrate scale rather than forecast outcomes.
| Category | 2025 baseline* | 2035 pathway | Reduction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Remand | 2,100 | 1,400 | -700 |
| Short-term sentences | 2,200 | 1,100 | -1,100 |
| Longer-term sentences** | 3,900 | 3,275 | -625 |
| Unallocated/other | 200*** | 0 | -200 |
| Total | 8,400 | 5,775 | -2,625 |
* Snapshot on 1st November 2025. Scottish Government. Safer communities and justice statistics monthly reports: Scottish Government SPS Management Information collection. 2025.
** Includes determinate and indeterminate sentences of four years or more
*** Residual legal statuses shown to reconcile totals in 2025; assumed absorbed by 2035.
Drivers of change
Reductions are assumed to arise from the combined impact of reform across the justice system, including prevention, early intervention and direct measures; more proportionate use of remand; reduced reliance on short custodial sentences supported by credible community justice; changes to release arrangements for long-term prisoners; improved throughcare, housing and health support; and sustained attention to equalities, human rights and public confidence. This will require sustained, joint and focused work by Ministers, officials and organisations responsible for delivering outcomes across the whole criminal justice system.
Interpretation
This pathway is intended to illustrate scale and direction only. It should not be treated as a forecast, target, or basis for performance assessment.