GDP Quarterly National Accounts: 2024 Quarter 4 (October to December)

GDP growth in volume terms

Headline GDP figures

Scotland’s onshore GDP (i.e. excluding offshore oil and gas) is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in real terms during 2024 Quarter 4 (October to December), revised up from the first estimate of zero growth (0.0%) published on 26 February.

This release includes revisions to data from Quarter 1 (January to March) 2023 to Quarter 4 (October to December) 2024 because of updated and revised source data, including inputs taken from the equivalent UK quarterly national accounts.

Quarterly GDP has been open to revision back to the start of 2023, with both upward and downward revisions during the last two years but only small changes to the overall trend. The growth in the latest quarter follows revised growth of 0.3% in both Quarter 3 (July to September) and Quarter 2 (April to June) and unrevised revised growth of 0.9% in Quarter 1 (January to March).

Figure 1: Real GDP is estimated to have grown by an upwardly revised 0.1% in 2024 Quarter 4, following growth of 0.3% in the previous quarter

Percentage change, quarter on quarter growth rates, 2023 Q1 to 2024 Q4

Real annual GDP is now estimated to have grown by 1.2% in 2024, revised up from the first estimate of 1.1%. This follows unrevised growth of 0.5% in 2023.

We also produce estimates of GDP per head (or per capita) which divides Scotland’s GDP by the total population. This is often used as a proxy indicator for living standards.

Real GDP per head is estimated to have fallen by an unrevised 0.1% during 2024 Quarter 4, and to have grown by 0.3% across 2024 as a whole (revised up from the first estimate of 0.2% growth).

Taken over the last 12 months, compared to the same quarter in 2023, Scotland’s GDP has grown by 1.7% in total, and by 0.9% per person. Meanwhile, in current prices (or nominal terms), without adjusting for inflation, the value of onshore GDP has increased by 4.4% compared to the same quarter a year ago.

The implied GDP deflator is the broadest estimate of inflation in the domestic economy, and is calculated by dividing nominal GDP by real GDP. The GDP deflator covers the whole economy and not just consumer spending, and also reflects the relative price of exports to imports. Compared to the same quarter a year ago, the implied GDP deflator has increased by 2.7%.

Latest results by industry of output

In 2024 Quarter 4, output in the services sector was flat (0.0% growth), revised down from the first estimate of 0.2% growth, with output growing in six of the fourteen subsectors and falling in seven. The largest positive contributions to growth in the latest quarter were from professional, scientific and technical services (+2.1%) and health and social work (+0.6%), with the largest offsetting negative contributions to growth from administrative and support services (-2.1%), accommodation and food services (-1.8%) and wholesale, retail and motor trades (-0.8%). 

Output in the production sector grew by 0.2% in the latest quarter, revised up from the first estimate fall of 1.1%. The upward revision was driven by an upwardly revised fall of 0.4% in manufacturing, and upwardly revised growth of 0.6% in the electricity and gas supply sector. Within production, the largest positive contributions to growth in the latest quarter were from manufacturing of chemical, pharmaceutical and refined petroleum products (+6.5%) and water supply and waste management (+3.9%), with the largest offsetting negative contributions to growth from manufacturing of food products and beverages (-2.1%) and metals, metal products and other machinery and equipment (-2.9%).

Output in the construction sector is estimated to have grown by 0.5% during quarter 3, unrevised from the first estimate.

The downloadable GDP in volume terms tables include more detailed breakdowns of the services and manufacturing sectors, as well as estimates of GDP per head and annual GDP growth back to 1963.

Estimates of GDP growth in volume terms based on the expenditure approach to GDP (consumption, government expenditure, investment and trade) are also available in the downloadable summary tables. These figures are currently designated as official statistics in development and are not processed with the same level of quality assurance as the industry statistics. The expenditure components are principally published for use by analysts, for example as inputs to economic forecasts.

The Monthly GDP estimates give a more detailed indication of the trends for each industry sector, and include results up to February 2025 at the time of release.