GDP Quarterly National Accounts: 2024 Quarter 4 (October to December)

Key Points

• In 2024 Quarter 4 (October to December), Scotland’s onshore GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in real terms, revised up from the first estimate of zero growth published on 26 February.
• In the latest quarter, output was flat in the services sector (0.0% growth), grew by 0.2% in the production sector, and grew by 0.5% in the construction sector.
• Real annual GDP is now estimated to have grown by 1.2% in 2024, revised up from the first estimate of 1.1%. This follows unrevised growth of 0.5% in 2023.
• Real GDP per head is estimated to have fallen by an unrevised 0.1% during 2024 Quarter 4, and grown by 0.3% across 2024 as a whole (revised up from the first estimate of 0.2% growth).
• The household saving ratio, which represents the proportion of disposable income which is available for saving or paying off debt, is estimated at 6.2% in the latest quarter, up from 2.9% at the same point last year.
• This release includes revisions to data from Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2023 to Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2024 because of updated and revised source data, including inputs taken from the equivalent UK quarterly national accounts.  

Introduction

This publication includes updated estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) for Scotland, along with a range of additional statistics which are used for economic forecasting and modelling.

These statistics continue to be affected by the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic on both data collection and on the structure of the economy itself. As a result, estimates for the years 2020 to 2022, in particular, are subject to more uncertainty than for other years and may continue to be more prone to revision over time.

International comparisons, and comparisons within the UK, should be made with appropriate caution for the levels of uncertainty and variations in methods in use by different statistical institutes around the world. The estimates of GDP from 2020 onwards are still continuing to evolve as more data becomes available, and it is likely that these results, including comparative positions relative to pre-pandemic levels, will continue to change in the coming years.

An Accredited Official Statistics Publication for Scotland

These statistics are accredited official statistics. The Office for Statistics Regulation has independently reviewed and accredited these statistics as complying with the standards of trustworthiness, quality, and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics.

Quarterly National Accounts Scotland was accredited in January 2014, as detailed in Assessment Report 272.

Accredited official statistics are called National Statistics in the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007.

Scottish Government statistics are regulated by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR). OSR sets the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics that all producers of official statistics should adhere to.