Methodology

This analysis is based on data from the achieved sample of the 2023 Scottish House Condition Survey.

In order to model estimated fuel poverty rates under the current price cap we have uprated the modelled household fuel bills from the 2023 SHCS in line with changes in the price cap since 2023. For example, for the current price cap period we applied a decrease of 18% to household bills based on the difference between the current price cap £1,843 (based on the old TDCVs), and the 2023 average of £2,249. Previous versions also account for cost of living support that was available during the price cap period as set out in Table 11 in Annex A. These support payments were incorporated into household incomes and used in the fuel poverty calculation but only for the time period that they were applicable for. Using the new modelled fuel bills the fuel poverty calculation was rerun and a new fuel poverty rate was produced.

We have not accounted for any other changes in household income, housing costs or the energy efficiency of dwellings since the 2023 survey. Our rationale for this has been that any changes in these would be small in comparison to changes in energy prices. An update of these factors will be available when results from the 2024 SHCS are available, with publication scheduled for February 2025.

To note all energy bills in this analysis have been uprated by the percentage change between the price cap and the weighted average 2023 bill. As such this means the increase has been applied where a household relies on fuels such as oil, LPG, solid or other fuel types which are not covered by the price cap, as well as to those where gas or electricity is the main heating fuel. As such this analysis assumes that the price for all other fuel types follows the same trend as the price cap. However, the actual price trend for these fuels may differ.