Findings

We estimate that from January to March 2026 there will be around 830,000 fuel poor households in Scotland – 33% of all households. This is an increase of less than 10,000 households from estimates for October to December 2025, which when rounded to the nearest 10,000 show the same estimates as the previous period.

Furthermore, from January to March 2026 we estimate that 51% of all fuel poor households will be in extreme fuel poverty. This means that around 430,000 households will be in extreme fuel poverty – 17% of all households.

This is an increase of around 10,000 households in extreme fuel poverty compared to estimates for October to December 2025.

These estimates are summarised in the figures below.

Figure 1: Fuel poverty timeseries from October 2022

Figure 2: Extreme Fuel Poverty time series from October 2022

In addition to the national estimates presented in Figure 1 and Figure 2, there will be interest in how fuel poverty rates and levels vary by household tenure.

From January to March 2026, we estimate that 41% of households in the private rented sector will be in fuel poverty and 59% of households in the social rented sector will be in fuel poverty. Both are similar to estimates for the October to December 2025 price cap period. From January to March 2026, we estimate that 20% of owner-occupied households will be in fuel poverty, a similar rate to October to December 2025 levels.

Tables 3 to 10 in Annex A summarise our estimates of fuel poverty and extreme fuel poverty rates and levels by urban/rural classification and household tenure and show how these have changed over time.

It is worth noting that although the Energy Price Guarantee (EPG) was set at £2,500 from October 2022 to June 2023, during October 2022 to March 2023 all households received the £400 Energy Bills Support Scheme.

It should also be observed that from April 2024 all cost of living payments included in the modelling had reached their end[1] and therefore are no longer being added to household income. Annual cost of living payments ending by the end of March 2024, include £900 for households on means tested benefits, £300 for pensioners and £150 for people on disability benefits. This helps explain why fuel poverty levels have remained broadly similar to the 2023 overall rate of 34%, despite a 18% (or £410) drop in the price cap from an average of £2,249 in 2023 to £1,839 in Oct-Dec 2025 (both based on the old TDCVs).