Publication - Statistics

Fuel Poverty Scenario Modelling based on Ofgem Energy Price Caps - up to January to March 2026

Part of

Scottish House Condition Survey

Annex A

Table 3: Fuel poverty levels (000s) by rural urban classification

Urban/Rural Classification	2022 SHCS	2023 SHCS	Jan to Mar 24	Apr to Jun 24	Jul to Sep 24	Oct to Dec 24	Jan to Mar 25	Apr to Jun 25	Jul to Sep 25	Oct to Dec 25	Jan to Mar 26
Large urban areas	272	317	300	280	270	290	290	300	290	290	290
Other urban areas	246	300	300	280	270	290	290	300	290	290	290
Accessible small towns	88	69	70	60	50	60	60	70	60	60	60
Remote small towns	27	29	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40
Urban Subtotal	633	715	710	660	620	680	680	710	670	690	690
Accessible rural	84	85	80	70	70	80	70	80	70	70	70
Remote rural	63	61	70	60	60	60	60	70	60	60	60
Rural Subtotal	147	146	150	140	130	140	140	140	140	140	140
All	780	861	850	800	760	820	820	850	810	830	830

Table 4: Fuel poverty rates by rural urban classification

Urban/Rural Classification	2022 SHCS	2023 SHCS	Jan to Mar 24	Apr to Jun 24	Jul to Sep 24	Oct to Dec 24	Jan to Mar 25	Apr to Jun 25	Jul to Sep 25	Oct to Dec 25	Jan to Mar 26
Large urban areas	31	33	33	32	30	32	32	34	32	33	33
Other urban areas	28	35	34	32	30	33	33	34	32	33	33
Accessible small towns	34	32	30	25	23	28	27	31	27	28	28
Remote small towns	34	41	43	40	38	41	41	42	41	41	41
Urban Subtotal	30	34	34	31	29	32	32	34	32	32	33
Accessible rural	30	31	29	27	26	28	28	28	28	28	28
Remote rural	47	44	44	43	42	43	43	43	43	43	43
Rural Subtotal	47	35	36	33	31	33	33	33	33	33	33
All	31	34	34	32	30	32	32	34	32	33	33

Table 5: Extreme fuel poverty levels (000's) by rural urban classification

Urban/Rural Classification	2022 SHCS	2023 SHCS	Jan to Mar 24	Apr to Jun 24	Jul to Sep 24	Oct to Dec 24	Jan to Mar 25	Apr to Jun 25	Jul to Sep 25	Oct to Dec 25	Jan to Mar 26
Large urban areas	142	173	160	140	130	140	140	150	140	140	150
Other urban areas	140	160	150	130	120	140	140	150	140	140	140
Accessible small towns	61	40	40	30	30	30	30	40	30	30	30
Remote small towns	17	15	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	20
Urban Subtotal	361	389	380	320	290	330	330	360	330	330	340
Accessible rural	54	61	60	50	40	50	50	50	50	50	50
Remote rural	50	41	40	40	30	40	40	40	40	40	40
Rural Subtotal	104	103	100	90	70	90	90	90	90	90	90
All	465	491	480	410	370	420	420	460	410	420	430

Table 6: Extreme fuel poverty rates by rural urban classification

Urban/Rural Classification	2022 SHCS	2023 SHCS	Jan to Mar 24	Apr to Jun 24	Jul to Sep 24	Oct to Dec 24	Jan to Mar 25	Apr to Jun 25	Jul to Sep 25	Oct to Dec 25	Jan to Mar 26
Large urban areas	16	18	18	15	14	16	16	17	16	16	16
Other urban areas	16	19	17	15	14	15	15	17	15	15	16
Accessible small towns	25	19	18	13	12	14	13	17	13	14	14
Remote small towns	23	21	22	19	17	21	21	21	21	21	21
Urban Subtotal	17	18	18	15	14	16	16	17	15	16	16
Accessible rural	20	23	21	18	15	18	18	19	18	18	18
Remote rural	35	30	29	24	22	25	25	27	25	25	26
Rural Subtotal	25	25	24	21	17	21	21	22	20	21	21
All	19	19	19	16	15	16	16	18	16	17	17

Table 7: Fuel poverty levels (000s) by household tenure

Tenure	2022 SHCS	2023 SHCS	Jan to Mar 24	Apr to Jun 24	Jul to Sep 24	Oct to Dec 24	Jan to Mar 25	Apr to Jun 25	Jul to Sep 25	Oct to Dec 25	Jan to Mar 26
Owned outright	278	241	240	230	220	240	230	240	230	240	240
Mortgaged	89	94	90	80	70	80	90	90	80	90	90
Owner Occupied Subtotal	367	336	330	310	290	320	320	330	310	320	320
LA	175	228	230	210	200	220	220	230	220	220	220
HA	114	165	160	160	150	160	160	170	160	160	160
Social Rented Subtotal	289	393	390	370	350	380	380	400	370	380	380
Private Rented	124	132	130	120	120	120	120	130	120	120	120
All	780	861	850	800	760	820	820	850	810	830	830

Table 8: Fuel poverty rates by household tenure

Tenure	2022 SHCS	2023 SHCS	Jan to Mar 24	Apr to Jun 24	Jul to Sep 24	Oct to Dec 24	Jan to Mar 25	Apr to Jun 25	Jul to Sep 25	Oct to Dec 25	Jan to Mar 26
Owned outright	28	25	25	24	23	25	24	25	24	25	25
Mortgaged	14	15	14	13	12	13	13	14	13	14	14
Owner Occupied Subtotal	22	21	21	20	18	20	20	21	20	20	20
LA	48	61	61	57	53	58	58	61	58	59	59
HA	47	60	60	57	54	58	59	61	58	59	59
Social Rented Subtotal	48	61	60	57	54	59	59	61	58	59	59
Private Rented	44	44	43	41	39	41	41	43	41	41	41
All	31	34	34	32	30	32	32	34	32	33	33

Table 9: Extreme fuel poverty levels (000's) by household tenure

Tenure	2022 SHCS	2023 SHCS	Jan to Mar 24	Apr to Jun 24	Jul to Sep 24	Oct to Dec 24	Jan to Mar 25	Apr to Jun 25	Jul to Sep 25	Oct to Dec 25	Jan to Mar 26
Owned outright	190	169	160	140	120	140	140	160	140	140	140
Mortgaged	44	42	40	30	30	30	30	40	30	30	30
Owner Occupied Subtotal	234	211	200	170	150	180	170	190	170	180	180
LA	92	123	120	100	100	110	110	120	110	110	110
HA	66	82	80	70	60	70	70	80	70	70	80
Social Rented Subtotal	157	205	200	180	160	180	180	200	180	180	180
Private Rented	74	75	70	60	50	60	60	70	60	60	60
All	465	491	480	410	370	420	420	460	410	420	430

Table 10: Extreme fuel poverty rates by household tenure

Tenure	2022 SHCS	2023 SHCS	Jan to Mar 24	Apr to Jun 24	Jul to Sep 24	Oct to Dec 24	Jan to Mar 25	Apr to Jun 25	Jul to Sep 25	Oct to Dec 25	Jan to Mar 26
Owned outright	19	18	17	15	13	15	15	17	15	15	15
Mortgaged	7	7	6	5	5	5	5	6	5	5	5
Owner Occupied Subtotal	14	13	13	11	9	11	11	12	11	11	11
LA	25	33	32	28	26	29	29	31	29	29	29
HA	27	30	30	27	23	27	26	30	26	26	28
Social Rented Subtotal	26	32	31	28	25	28	28	30	27	28	28
Private Rented	26	25	25	19	17	20	20	22	20	20	21
All	19	19	19	16	15	16	16	18	16	17	17

Table 11: Summary of the support for households (mitigations) included in the October 2022 to March 2023 and April to June 2024 scenarios

Mitigation	Included in scenarios for Oct 2022 to Mar 2023	Included in scenarios for April 2023 to Mar 2024	Included in scenarios for Apr 2024 to Dec 2024	Included in scenarios forJan 2025 to present	Eligibility
Energy Bills Support Scheme	Yes (£400)	No	No	No	Universal and received by all households in 2022/23. Not continued in 2023/24.
Alternative Fuel Payments	Yes (£200)	No	No	No	Received by all households using fuels other than gas or electricity to heat their homes in 2022/23. Not continued in 2023/24.
Cost of living payment for households on means tested benefits	Yes (£650)	Yes (£900)	No	No	Received by households on means tested benefits in 2022/23 and 2023/24. Note: the amount will increase to £900 in 2023/24 up from £650 in 2022/23.
Cost of living payment for pensioners	Yes (£300)	Yes (£300)	No	No	Received by pensioner households in 2022/23 and 2023/24. Note: the eligibility criteria changed to become universal in 2023/24, i.e. it will be received by all pensioner households, whereas in 2022/23 it was only received by pensioner households in receipt of the Cold Weather Payment.
Cost of living payment for people on disability benefits	Yes (£150)	Yes (£150)	No	No	Received by people on disability benefits in 2022/23 and 2023/24.
The Scottish Government’s Cost of Living Award	Yes (£150)	No	No	No	This £150 Council Tax rebate was received in 2022/23 by households in Council Tax bands A-D or in receipt of Council Tax Reduction benefit. Not continued in 2023/24.
Winter Fuel Payment / Pension Age Winter Heating Payment	Yes (universal £300)	Yes (universal £300) until December 2023 then based on receipt of means tested benefits either £300, £200, or £100 for eligible households	Yes based on receipt of means tested benefits either £300, £200, or £100 for eligible households	Yes (means-tested) Either £305.10 or £203.40 for eligible households.	The WFP was universal to all pensioner households until 23/24 when it became means tested based on receipt of certain benefits. The criteria remains means tested for 2025/2026 however the criteria has again changed. See Changes to Winter Fuel Payment eligibility rules for a description of the eligibility criteria for 2024/2025 and Pension Age Winter Heating Payment for the 2025/2026 criteria

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Annex A