US Export Plan - Sector Report - Space

Industry trends

According to McKinsey, the global space economy is forecast to grow to $1.8 trillion by 2035, up from $630 billion in 2023 and growing at an average of 9% per annum.^[7]

Scotland has ambitions to create 20,000 jobs and secure a £4 billion share of the global space market by 2030. Space Scotland released A Strategy for Space in Scotland which was jointly developed and published by industry, academia and government, and states that over the next decade and beyond, there will be a shift to ‘new space’, including an emphasis on smaller, cheaper satellites and accessible space data. This is driving demand for agile, SME-led ecosystems, with this fast-growing, commercially driven landscape of small satellites, spaceports and data services by private companies and startups, and is an area in which Scotland is emerging as a leader and already excels. It presents a stark contrast to the traditional space sector which is rooted in government-led, large-scale missions and defence applications.^[8]

Scotland aims to stand alongside established players like the US, recognising that future success will come from differentiation and leadership in emerging areas. An example of this is in advancing In-Space Servicing, Assembly, and Manufacturing (ISAM). This involves technologies that enable the repair, construction, and production of assets directly in orbit and is seen as essential steps toward achieving a circular economy in space, where resources are reused and repurposed rather than discarded. This aligns with its ambition to use satellite and downstream data to support in planning, restoration and resilience.^[9] Being able to deliver on end-to-end capability with full spectrum services from satellite design and manufacture to launch and downstream data analytics, will be relevant when competing with some of the existing players in the US market.

Sustainability is also becoming a defining trend within the sector, with Scotland aiming to play a leading role in demonstrating a sustainable approach to space-faring, with minimum impact on both the orbital and terrestrial environment, including environmentally responsible practices, such as debris mitigation and green propulsion.^[10] In the United States, sustainability is recognised, including within frameworks such as Space Agenda 2025, but it generally sits alongside other key priorities such as national security, global leadership and commercial competitiveness.

Cross-sector collaboration is becoming increasingly important with the increasing convergence of the space sector with other sectors like agriculture, energy and fintech, leveraging space data for Earth applications and creating new commercial models, in order to encourage broader economic growth. There are also other mini-acceleration programmes, e.g. ‘Pivot into Space’, that focus on cross-sector innovation in financial services, sustainable manufacturing and robotics and AI which are mentioned in the ‘Knowledge Exchange and Sector Diversification’ project within Space Scotland’s Space Cluster Development programme, and will hopefully expand the Scottish portfolio of capabilities, laying the foundations for new industrial subsectors.^[11]

The International Space Station (ISS) is being decommissioned at the end of the decade, marking the end of more than three decades of continuous human presence in low Earth orbit. With this, the last few years have seen a growing collaboration between publicly funded space agencies and privately owned businesses. For example, in preparation for this transition, NASA has launched the Commercial Low Earth Orbit Destinations (CLD) program, which funds and supports private companies to design, build, and operate new commercial space stations.^[12] Space Scotland has expressed interest in positioning itself as a 'virtual tenant' of future commercial stations, enabling Scottish companies to access orbital infrastructure and exchange offerings with international partners.

The burgeoning spaceports around the world are a key pillar for the development of the sector. In the US this can take companies away from the more traditional businesses centres, with spaceports spread across the country, from concentrations in Florida, Texas and California, to sites in Alaska, Alabama, Colorado, Georgia, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Virginia.