Education and Skills Impact Framework (ESIF) - college provision: contextual summary report 2022

Benefit to Individuals

Introduction

The following section covers the difference in earnings, employment and benefit dependency related to completing a qualification at college. These are calculated by comparing the outcome for individuals who completed the qualification to a control group via regression analysis. In addition, control variables are used to account for differences in characteristics including academic year of completion, ethnic group, disability status, SIMD quintile and region of residence.

Individuals with qualifications in SCQF level groups 4 – 8 are compared to students who began but did not complete a qualification at the appropriate level. Individuals with qualifications in the other undergraduate group were compared to qualifiers at SCQF level 6 due to sample size restrictions. It is not clear how comparison to learners achieving SCQF level 6 qualifications affects results, or whether this group is an appropriate control group.

Earnings

Table 9 presents the estimated earnings returns for each qualification, three years after completion (broken down by gender and age at completion), with respect to the control group. Earnings returns are interpreted as the percentage difference in daily earnings of an individual in possession of a given qualification relative to the control group. For example, the results suggest women with an ‘other undergraduate’ qualification aged 21 or less earn 6.6% more than women with similar characteristics who completed a qualification at SCQF level 6. Treatment and control group sample sizes are presented in the Appendix.

*Some results are unavailable due to small sample sizes. For others, the earnings were not significantly different from the control group.

Key findings:

• Results are frequently unavailable due to sample size restrictions, or non-significant
• Where defined returns are positive, except for men aged 31+ with SCQF level 8 qualifications
• Women tend to receive greater returns at higher SCQF levels, with men receiving greater returns at lower SCQF levels
• The largest returns were for men aged 22-30 with an SCQF level 5 qualification

Employment

Table 10 presents the estimated employment returns for each qualification, three years after completion (broken down by gender and age at completion), with respect to the control group. Employment returns refer to the percentage point difference in the proportion of the year that an individual with a given qualification spends in employment relative to a control group. For example, the results suggest women aged 21 or less with an SCQF level 5 qualification are estimated to spend 9.8pp more of the year in employment than women with similar characteristics who started but did not complete an SCQF level 5 qualification.

*Some results are unavailable due to small sample sizes. For others, the employment was not significantly different from the control group

Key findings:

• Returns for SCQF levels 4 to 6 are positive, completing a qualification at these levels is associated with an increase in the proportion of the year spent in employment compared to non-completers.
• Results for SCQF level 7, 8 and other undergraduate courses are mixed. While many results are significant and positive, a number are non-significant. In addition, the employment return to other undergraduate courses is negative for both sexes at age range 31+, implying that individuals achieving this qualification level are likely to spend 1 to 1.3 percentage points less of the year in employment than individuals who completed SCQF level 6 qualifications.
• Comparing employment returns for men and women aged 30 and under, completing a qualification is generally associated with spending a greater portion of the year in employment for women than for men. This pattern appears to be reversed for individuals aged 31+.

Welfare benefit dependency

Table 11 presents the estimated benefit dependency returns for each qualification, three years after completion (broken down by gender and age at completion), with respect to the control group. Welfare dependency returns are interpreted as the percentage point difference in the likelihood receiving welfare benefits for an individual with a given qualification relative to a control group. For example, the results suggest that women aged 21 or less with an SCQF level 5 qualification are 10.5 percentage points less likely to receive welfare benefits than women with similar characteristics who started but did not complete a qualification at the same level. In this case, a negative figure indicates a more favourable result.

*Some results are unavailable due to small sample sizes. For others, the benefit received was not significantly different from the control group.

Key findings:

• The majority of qualifications considered are associated with a reduction in the probability of receiving welfare benefits, compared to the control group.
• Unlike for earnings there is no clear pattern in benefit dependency by sex at higher SCQF levels. Completion of a qualification at SCQF levels 4 & 5 appears to be associated with a greater reduction in the probability of receiving benefits for women than for men.
• Overall, the largest reduction in likelihood to receive welfare benefits is seen for men who complete an SCQF level 4 qualification as compared to men who started but did not finish a qualification at that level.