Publication - Research and analysis

Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 30 July 2021

Published: 30 Jul 2021

This report brings together the different sources of evidence and data about the Covid epidemic to summarise the current situation, why we are at that place, and what is likely to happen next.

Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 30 July 2021
Footnotes

Footnotes

1 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

2 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

3 Scottish Government: https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

4 Public Health Scotland COVID19 statistical report: COVID-19 Statistical Report - 28 July 2021 - COVID-19 statistical report - Publications - Public Health Scotland

5 Public Health Scotland Covid dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

6 Source: Public Health Scotland

7 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

8 Scottish Government: https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

9 Public Health Scotland dashboard: COVID-19 Daily Dashboard - PHS COVID-19 | Tableau Public

10 Public Health Scotland COVID19 statistical report: COVID-19 Statistical Report - 28 July 2021 - COVID-19 statistical report - Publications - Public Health Scotland

11 NRS Scotland: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-publications/weekly-and-monthly-data-on-births-and-deaths/deaths-involving-coronavirus-covid-19-in-scotland

12 Public Health Scotland COVID-19 statistical report: COVID-19 Statistical Report - 28 July 2021 - COVID-19 statistical report - Publications - Public Health Scotland

13 Office for National Statistics: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases

14 UK Government: Deaths in the UK | Coronavirus in the UK (data.gov.uk)

15 Office for National Statistics: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyantibodyandvaccinationdatafortheuk/21july2021

16 Office for National Statistics: Prevalence of ongoing symptoms following coronavirus (COVID-19) infection in the UK - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)

17 Public Health Scotland Covid dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

18 Public Health Scotland Covid dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

19 Modelling conducted by Imperial College London: Swapnil Mishra, Jamie Scott, Harrison Zhu, Neil M. Ferguson, Samir Bhatt, Seth Flaxman, Axel Gandy, “A COVID-19 Model for Local Authorities of the United Kingdom,” medRxiv https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.24.20236661, “COVID-19 UK website” http://imperialcollegelondon.github.io

20 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

21 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

22 Results are taken from questions run on behalf of Scottish Government on the YouGov online omnibus survey. The sample is demographically and geographically representative of adults 18+ across Scotland, with c.1000 responses each week. Fieldwork took place on 27-28 July with a total sample size of 980 adults (Note lower base this week due to delays in fieldwork). ‘Complete’ or ‘almost complete’ compliance refers to respondents who rated themselves 6 or 7 on a scale of 1-7 for the question: Thinking about ALL of the guidance on what to do and what not to do during the Coronavirus pandemic (including distancing, protection measures and all restrictions)...On a scale of 1-7, where 1 is 'Not at all' and 7 is 'Completely', to what extent do you feel you are following the regulations and guidance?

23 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

24 The difference between the Better and Worse scenarios: ‘Worse’ assumes a behaviour change over a two month period following the change in restrictions on the 19th July. ‘Better’ assumes this behavioural change happens more gradually over a five to six month period leading to lower transmission.

25 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

26 Scottish Government: https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

27 Public Health Scotland Covid dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

28 Source: YouGov online survey. Total sample size on 27-28 July was 980 adults. Sample size for those who have not yet received their first vaccine was 41 adults. ‘Likely’ to be vaccinated refers to respondents who rated themselves 8 to 10 on a scale of 0-10 for the question: How likely or unlikely are you to be vaccinated for COVID-19 when a vaccine becomes available to you? (Please select a number between 0 and 10, where 0 means 'extremely unlikely' and 10 means 'extremely likely')

29 S1236_Eighty-nineth_SAGE.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)

30 Risk assessment for SARS-CoV-2 variant: VOC-21APR-02 (B.1.617.2) (publishing.service.gov.uk)

31 S1284_SAGE_92_minutes.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)

32 Variants: distribution of cases data - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

33 Brief note on SARS-CoV-2 variants (publishing.service.gov.uk)

34 Brief note on SARS-CoV-2 B.1.351 - 27 January 2021 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

35 Brief note on SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern P.1 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

36 Variants: distribution of cases data - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

37 Vaccines highly effective against hospitalisation from Delta variant - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

38 COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 28 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

39 COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 28 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

40 COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 23 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

41 SARS-CoV-2 Delta VOC in Scotland: demographics, risk of hospital admission, and vaccine effectiveness - The Lancet

42 SARS-CoV-2 Delta VOC in Scotland: demographics, risk of hospital admission, and vaccine effectiveness - The Lancet


Contact

Email: modellingcoronavirus@gov.scot