Publication - Research and analysis

Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 24 September 2021

This report brings together the different sources of evidence and data about the Covid epidemic to summarise the current situation, why we are at that place, and what is likely to happen next.

Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 24 September 2021
Footnotes

Footnotes

1. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

2. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

3. Scottish Government: https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

Due to technical issues data was not available on 16 September and figures provided on 17, 18 and 19 September are not directly comparable to other dates, therefore, users should exercise caution when making week on week comparisons between the period 9-15 September to 17-23 September. For more information see https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

4. Public Health Scotland COVID19 statistical report

5. Public Health Scotland Covid dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

6. Source: Public Health Scotland

7. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

8. Scottish Government: https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

9. Public Health Scotland dashboard: COVID-19 Daily Dashboard - PHS COVID-19 | Tableau Public

10. Public Health Scotland COVID19 statistical report

11. Public Health Scotland COVID19 statistical report

12. NRS Scotland: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-publications/weekly-and-monthly-data-on-births-and-deaths/deaths-involving-coronavirus-covid-19-in-scotland

13. ibid

14. Public Health Scotland COVID19 statistical report

15. Office for National Statistics: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/cor onaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases

16. Office for National Statistics: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, antibody and vaccination data, UK - Office for National Statistics

17. Office for National Statistics: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/2september2021

18. UK Government: Deaths in the UK | Coronavirus in the UK (data.gov.uk)

19. Public Health Scotland Covid dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

20. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

21. Public Health Scotland: PHS COVID-19 Education report (shinyapps.io)

22. Results are taken from questions run on behalf of Scottish Government on the YouGov online omnibus survey. The sample is demographically and geographically representative of adults 18+ across Scotland, with c. 1000 responses each week. Fieldwork took place on 21-22 September with a total sample size of 1005 adults. 'Complete' or 'almost complete' compliance refers to respondents who rated themselves 6 or 7 on a scale of 1-7 for the question:Thinking about ALL of the guidance on what to do and what not to do during the Coronavirus pandemic (including distancing, protection measures and all restrictions)...On a scale of 1-7, where 1 is 'Not at all' and 7 is 'Completely', to what extent do you feel you are following the regulations and guidance?

23. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

24. The difference between the scenarios: 'Central' assumes that infections have plateaued. 'Better' assumes that infections continue to fall. This week only 'Better' and 'Central' scenarios have been included as there has been an improvement and 'Worse' is less likely. 'Worse' may return in future projections. All scenarios are based on current vaccine roll-out plans and efficacy assumptions.

25. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

26. Scottish Government: https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

27. Public Health Scotland Covid dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

28. Source: YouGov online survey. Total sample size on 21-22 September was 1005 adults. Sample size for those who have not yet received their first vaccine was 56 adults. 'Likely' to be vaccinated refers to respondents who rated themselves 8 to 10 on a scale of 0-10 for the question: How likely or unlikely are you to be vaccinated for COVID-19 when a vaccine becomes available to you? (Please select a number between 0 and 10, where 0 means 'extremely unlikely' and 10 means 'extremely likely')

29. S1236_Eighty-nineth_SAGE.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)

30. Risk assessment for SARS-CoV-2 variant: VOC-21APR-02 (B.1.617.2) (publishing.service.gov.uk)

31. S1284_SAGE_92_minutes.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)

32. Variants: distribution of cases data - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

33. Brief note on SARS-CoV-2 variants (publishing.service.gov.uk)

34. Brief note on SARS-CoV-2 B.1.351 - 27 January 2021 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

35. Brief note on SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern P.1 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

36. Variants: distribution of cases data - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

37. New studies — Nuffield Department of Medicine (ox.ac.uk)

38. COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 34 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

39. SARS-CoV-2 Delta VOC in Scotland: demographics, risk of hospital admission, and vaccine effectiveness - The Lancet

40. VEEP: Vaccine effectiveness table, 27 August 2021 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)


Contact

Email: modellingcoronavirus@gov.scot