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Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 22 October 2021

This report brings together the different sources of evidence and data about the Covid epidemic to summarise the current situation, why we are at that place, and what is likely to happen next.

This document is part of a collection


Footnotes

1 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

2 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

3 Scottish Government: https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

4 Public Health Scotland COVID-19 statistical report

5 Public Health Scotland Covid-19 dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

6 Source: Public Health Scotland

7 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

8 Scottish Government: https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

9 Public Health Scotland dashboard: COVID-19 Daily Dashboard - PHS COVID-19 | Tableau Public.

10 Public Health Scotland COVID-19 statistical report

11 ibid

12 Public Health Scotland COVID-19 Statistical Report

13 ICU or combined ICU/HDU (with length of stay 28 days or less)

14 NRS Scotland: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-publications/weekly-and-monthly-data-on-births-and-deaths/deaths-involving-coronavirus-covid-19-in-scotland

15 ibid

16 Public Health Scotland COVID19 statistical report

17 ibid

18 Office for National Statistics: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases

19 Office for National Statistics: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, antibody and vaccination data, UK - Office for National Statistics

20 Office for National Statistics: Prevalence of ongoing symptoms following coronavirus (COVID-19) infection in the UK - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)

21 UK Government: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

22 ibid

23 Public Health Scotland Covid dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

24 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

25 Public Health Scotland: PHS COVID-19 Education report (shinyapps.io)

26 Public Health Scotland

27 Office for National Statistics: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, antibody and vaccination data, UK - Office for National Statistics

28 Results are taken from questions run on behalf of Scottish Government on the YouGov online omnibus survey. The sample is demographically and geographically representative of adults 18+ across Scotland, with c. 1000 responses each week. Fieldwork took place on 19-20 October with a total sample size of 1003 adults. ‘Complete’ or ‘almost complete’ compliance refers to respondents who rated themselves 6 or 7 on a scale of 1-7 for the question: Thinking about All of the guidance on what to do and what not to do during the Coronavirus pandemic (including distancing, protection measures and all restrictions).On a scale of 1-7, where 1 is 'Not at all' and 7 is 'Completely', to what extent do you feel you are following the regulations and guidance?

29 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

30 The difference between the scenarios: Worse’ assumes a rise in transmission similar to that seen in June and August. ‘Central’ assumes that infections will plateau at the current level. ‘Better’ assumes that infections will fall. All scenarios are based on current vaccine roll-out plans and efficacy assumptions. All three scenarios assume a small number of infections resulting from the COP 26 conference beginning in Glasgow 31 October. However, there is a large amount of uncertainty as to the potential impact on infections.

31 Public Health Scotland Covid-19 dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

32 ibid

33 Public Health Scotland Covid-19 dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

34 Source: YouGov online survey. Total sample size on 19-20 October was 1003 adults. Sample size for those who have not yet received their first vaccine was 51 adults. ‘Likely’ to be vaccinated refers to respondents who rated themselves 8 to 10 on a scale of 0-10 for the question: How likely or unlikely are you to be vaccinated for COVID-19 when a vaccine becomes available to you? (Please select a number between 0 and 10, where 0 means 'extremely unlikely' and 10 means 'extremely likely')

35 S1236_Eighty-nineth_SAGE.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)

36 Risk assessment for SARS-CoV-2 variant: VOC-21APR-02 (B.1.617.2) (publishing.service.gov.uk)

37 S1284_SAGE_92_minutes.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)

38 Variants: distribution of cases data - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

39 Brief note on SARS-CoV-2 variants (publishing.service.gov.uk)

40 Brief note on SARS-CoV-2 B.1.351 - 27 January 2021 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

41 Brief note on SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern P.1 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

42 Variants: distribution of cases data - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

43 New studies — Nuffield Department of Medicine (ox.ac.uk)

44 COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 34 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

45 SARS-CoV-2 Delta VOC in Scotland: demographics, risk of hospital admission, and vaccine effectiveness - The Lancet

46 Vaccines give protection against death from Delta | The University of Edinburgh

47 VEEP: Vaccine effectiveness table, 27 August 2021 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

48 JCVI statement, September 2021: COVID-19 booster vaccine programme for winter 2021 to 2022 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

Contact

Email: modellingcoronavirus@gov.scot

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