Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 18 February 2022

This report brings together the different sources of evidence and data about the Covid epidemic to summarise the current situation, why we are at that place, and what is likely to happen next.

Situation by Local Authority within Scotland

In the week leading up to 12 February 2022, Shetland Islands had the highest combined PCR and LFD weekly case rate per 100,000 by specimen date, reporting 2,147 cases per 100,000 population. Na h-Eileanan Siar had the lowest weekly combined LFD and PCR case rate in the same time period, reporting 460 cases per 100,000. The total combined LFD and PCR weekly case rates by specimen date per 100,000 had increased in 14 local authorities in the week leading up to 12 February 2022 compared with the weekly case rate in the week to 5 February 2022, while 18 local authorities saw a decrease in the same period (Figure 11)[57].

Figure 11: Weekly total LFD or PCR case rates per 100,000 people in Local Authorities across Scotland on 12 February 2022 by specimen date.

one colour coded map showing positive LFD and PCR weekly cases per 100,000 people by specimen date in each local authority in Scotland on 12 February 2022. The map ranges from grey for under 100 weekly cases per 100,000, through very light blue for 100-500, blue for 500-1,000, darker blue for 1,000-1,500, and very dark blue for over 1,500 weekly cases per 100,000 people.

Please note that the following local authority hotspot modelling uses data to 14 February 2022 from several academic groups to give an indication of whether a local authority is likely to experience high levels of Covid-19. This has been compiled via UKHSA into a consensus. The modelled weekly case rate below is not directly comparable to the weekly case rate reported in the section and figure above.

The local authority modelling has not been compiled via UKHSA into a consensus this week and is based on one modelling group due to issues with some of the models converging. Some of the models contributing to this analysis are informed by both PCR and LFD positive tests whilst others are currently informed by PCR only. Due to inconsistent results from modelling, UKHSA has not been able to provide estimates for the Orkney or Shetland Islands this week.

Modelled rates of positive tests per 100,000 using data to 14 February indicate that, for the week commencing 27 February 2022, all 30 local authorities for which estimates were provided are expected to exceed 50 cases per 100,000 with at least 75% probability. 28 out of 30 local authorities are expected to exceed 100 cases per 100,000, with at least 75% probability. The exceptions are Moray and Na h-Eileanan Siar.

15 out of 30 local authorities are expected to exceed 300 cases per 100,000, with at least 75% probability. These are Angus, Argyll & Bute, Edinburgh, Dundee, East Dunbartonshire, Glasgow, Highlands, Midlothian, North Lanarkshire, Perth and Kinross, Renfrewshire, South Lanarkshire, Stirling, West Dunbartonshire and West Lothian.

Five local authorities are expected to exceed 500 cases per 100,000, with at least 75% probability. These are Glasgow, North Lanarkshire, Renfrewshire, Stirling and West Dunbartonshire[58].



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