Publication - Research and analysis

Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 16 July 2021

Published: 16 Jul 2021

This report brings together the different sources of evidence and data about the Covid epidemic to summarise the current situation, why we are at that place, and what is likely to happen next.

Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 16 July 2021
Footnotes

Footnotes

1 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

2 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

3 Scottish Government: https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

4 Public Health Scotland Covid dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

5 Source: Public Health Scotland

6 Public Health Scotland dashboard: COVID-19 Daily Dashboard - PHS COVID-19 | Tableau Public

7 NRS Scotland: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-publications/weekly-and-monthly-data-on-births-and-deaths/deaths-involving-coronavirus-covid-19-in-scotland

8 Office for National Statistics: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases

9 Office for National Statistics:https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyantibodyandvaccinationdatafortheuk/22june2021

10 Office for National Statistics: Prevalence of ongoing symptoms following coronavirus (COVID-19) infection in the UK - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)

11 Office for National Statistics: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey technical article: analysis of positivity r accination data - Office for National Statistics

12 Results are taken from questions run on behalf of Scottish Government on the YouGov online omnibus survey. The sample is demographically and geographically representative of adults 18+ across Scotland, with c.1000 responses each week. Fieldwork took place on 13-14 July with a total sample size of 1,001 adults. ‘Complete’ or ‘almost complete’ compliance refers to respondents who rated themselves 6 or 7 on a scale of 1-7 for the question: Thinking about ALL of the guidance on what to do and what not to do during the Coronavirus pandemic (including distancing, protection measures and all restrictions)...On a scale of 1-7, where 1 is 'Not at all' and 7 is 'Completely', to what extent do you feel you are following the regulations and guidance?

13 The difference between the Better and Worse scenarios: Both scenarios are based on current vaccine roll-out plans and efficacy assumptions. ‘Worse’ assumes that behaviour changes instantaneously after the whole of Scotland moves to Level 0 on 19th July. ‘Better’ assumes behaviour changes gradually over a period of months.

14 Source: YouGov online survey. Total sample size on 13-14 July June was 1,001 adults. Sample size for those who have not yet received their first vaccine was 80 adults. ‘Likely’ to be vaccinated refers to respondents who rated themselves 8 to 10 on a scale of 0-10 for the question: How likely or unlikely are you to be vaccinated for COVID-19 when a vaccine becomes available to you? (Please select a number between 0 and 10, where 0 means 'extremely unlikely' and 10 means 'extremely likely')

15 Variants: distribution of cases data - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

16 Brief note on SARS-CoV-2 variants (publishing.service.gov.uk)

17 Brief note on SARS-CoV-2 B.1.351 - 27 January 2021 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

18 Brief note on SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern P.1 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

19 Variants: distribution of cases data - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

20 S1236_Eighty-nineth_SAGE.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)

21 Risk assessment for SARS-CoV-2 variant: VOC-21APR-02 (B.1.617.2) (publishing.service.gov.uk)

22 S1284_SAGE_92_minutes.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)

23 SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation (publishing.service.gov.uk)

24 COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 27 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

25 COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 23 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

26 Vaccines highly effective against hospitalisation from Delta variant - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

27 COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 26 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

28 SARS-CoV-2 Delta VOC in Scotland: demographics, risk of hospital admission, and vaccine effectiveness - The Lancet

29 SARS-CoV-2 Delta VOC in Scotland: demographics, risk of hospital admission, and vaccine effectiveness - The Lancet


Contact

Email: modellingcoronavirus@gov.scot