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Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 13 May 2022

This report brings together the different sources of evidence and data about the Covid epidemic to summarise the current situation, why we are at that place, and what is likely to happen next.

This document is part of a collection


Footnotes

1 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): state of the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

2 A credible interval gives an indication of the uncertainty of an estimate from data analysis based on a sample population. 95% credible intervals are calculated so that there is a 95% probability of the true value lying in the interval.

3 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): modelling the epidemic (Issue 99, published 12 May 2022)

4 Using data to 9 May 2022.

5 No R value was published for the week beginning 27 December 2021 (as publications were paused over the festive period). The most recent data point for the R value is dated 11 May 2022, reflecting the R value as at 26 April 2022.

6 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): modelling the epidemic (Issue 99, published 12 May 2022)

7 Using data to 9 May 2022.

8 Using data to 9 May 2022.

9 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): modelling the epidemic (Issue 99, published 12 May 2022)

10 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): ONS infection survey - Headline Results (published 13 May 2022)

11 A credible interval gives an indication of the uncertainty of an estimate from data analysis based on a sample population. 95% credible intervals are calculated so that there is a 95% probability of the true value lying in the interval.

12 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): ONS infection survey - Headline Results (published 13 May 2022)

13 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): ONS infection survey - Headline Results (published 13 May 2022)

14 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): ONS infection survey - Headline Results (published 13 May 2022)

15 Sub-regional estimates are based on a different model to the national headline estimates, and should not be compared to headline positivity estimates. The sub-regional figures may differ from the headline estimates because they are averaged over a longer time period. The number of people sampled in each sub-regional area who tested positive for COVID-19 is lower relative to the respective overall national samples. This means there is a higher degree of uncertainty in these estimates; caution should be taken, and the uncertainty of the estimates and wide credible intervals taken into account, when interpreting or ranking them.

16 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): ONS infection survey - Headline Results (published 13 May 2022)

17 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): modelling the epidemic (Issue 99, published 12 May 2022)

18 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): modelling the epidemic (Issue 99, published 12 May 2022)

19 The Omicron variant emerged in Scotland around mid-December 2021. After the end of 2021, S-gene dropout testing data suggest that nearly all cases are from the Omicron variant. During the period of change in the dominant variant, a change in the relationship between the wastewater SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels and case numbers was observed and postulated to be due to different levels of virus shed by the two variants. If this assumption is true, and there is no further change in shedding following the emergence of the Omicron variant BA.2, then from early January 2022, wastewater SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels should have a consistent relationship with the underlying Covid-19 prevalence.

20 The latest CIS estimates up to the week to 7 May were not available at the time that Figure 3 was produced. As a result, Figure 3 uses CIS estimates from the week ending 1 May 2022). See the previous section for the latest CIS estimates.

21 Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard (accessed 9 May 2022)

22 Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard (accessed 9 May 2022)

23 Before 5 January 2022, the case rate includes only positive laboratory confirmed PCR tests. After 5 January 2022, the case rate includes PCR and LFD confirmed cases. From 18 April 2022, the Universal LFD Offer for asymptomatic testing is no longer available. In addition, on 1 May 2022 the purpose of COVID-19 testing shifted from population-wide testing to reduce transmission, to targeted testing and surveillance. Reported cases will no longer be representative of all COVID-19 cases in Scotland, and caution is advised when comparing trends in cases over time.

24 Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard (accessed 9 May 2022)

25 Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Statistical Report Dashboard (published 11 May 2022)

26 The sample is demographically representative of adults aged 18 and older across Scotland, with circa 3000 responses over two alternating panels. This is modelled to represent the Scottish population.

27 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): modelling the epidemic (Issue 99, published 12 May 2022)

28 Nosocomial cases include cases where the onset is either probable or definite hospital onset (where the sample was collected on day eight of hospital cases or later.

29 ARHAI: Hospital onset COVID-19 cases in Scotland (published 11 May 2022)

30 Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard (accessed 9 May 2022)

31 ICU includes combined ICU/HDU figures and both patients with length of stay 28 days or less and with length of stay more than 28 days. Please note that only patients with length of stay 28 days or less in ICU were recorded until 20 January 2021. From 20 January 2021 ICU short and long stay includes both ICU or combined ICU/HDU with length of stay 28 days or less and with length of stay more than 28 days.

32 Before 9 February 2022, patients were only included if they had a recent positive laboratory confirmed PCR test. Hospital and ICU occupancy includes reinfections from 7 March 2022 onwards. Patient testing requirements changed on the 1 April 2022 and population wide testing policy changed on 1 May 2022, which may mean a reduction in asymptomatic cases of Covid-19 detected and a corresponding decrease in Covid-19 related occupancy.

33 Covid-19 related admissions have been identified as the following: A patient’s first positive test for Covid-19 up to 14 days prior to admission to hospital, on the day of their admission or during their stay in hospital. If a patient’s first positive test is after their date of discharge from hospital, they are not included in the analysis. An admission is defined as a period of stay in a single hospital. If the patient has been transferred to another hospital during treatment, each transfer will create a new admission record.

34 The State of the Epidemic report incorporates hospital admissions data published up on 9 May 2022, so any revisions since then will not be included in this report.

35 Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard (accessed 9 May 2022)

36 Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard (accessed 9 May 2022)

37 Before 5 January 2022, hospital admissions were only included if the patient had a recent positive laboratory confirmed PCR test. ICU admissions rely on PCR testing only. Hospital admissions data in the chart now includes reinfections and has been updated to include this methodology retrospectively to the start of the pandemic. Patient testing requirements changed on the 1 April 2022 and population wide testing policy changed on 1 May 2022, which may mean a reduction in asymptomatic cases of Covid-19 detected and a corresponding decrease in Covid-19 related admissions.

38 Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard (accessed 9 May 2022)

39 Public Health Scotland: COVID-19 Statistical Report (published 11 May 2022)

40 Public Health Scotland: COVID-19 Education report (published 6 May 2022)

41 This Covid-19 hospital admissions figure is based on a three-week rolling average rather than weekly totals, which is less likely to be significantly affected by revisions. It is therefore presented without a lag. These figures will be affected by the end to the Universal LFD Offer for asymptomatic testing.

42 Public Health Scotland: COVID-19 Statistical Report (published 11 May 2022)

43 Public Health Scotland: COVID-19 Statistical Report (published 4 May 2022)

44 Public Health Scotland: COVID-19 Statistical Report (published 4 May 2022)

45 NRS Scotland: Deaths involving coronavirus (Covid-19) in Scotland (published 12 May 2022)

46 NRS Scotland: Deaths involving coronavirus (Covid-19) in Scotland (published 12 May 2022)

47 NRS Scotland: Deaths involving coronavirus (Covid-19) in Scotland (published 12 May 2022)

48 Please note that due to unusual numbers of mortality in 2020, the excess deaths calculation for 2021 use the average from the years 2015 – 2019. Year 2022 uses data from 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2021 to calculate average 5-year period.

49 Please note that Covid-19 deaths are included in all cause deaths, and are counted towards all cause excess deaths. However, Covid-19 does not yet have a separate category for excess deaths calculation as excess deaths are compared against a five-year average. The separate categories of causes of death do not sum to the total excess due to the omission of a Covid-19 category, and it would not make sense to use the number of COVID deaths in the previous 5 years as a baseline.

50 NRS Scotland: Deaths involving coronavirus (Covid-19) in Scotland (published 12 May 2022)

51 Deaths where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate.

52 UK Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19) in the UK (accessed 10 May 2022)

53 Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard (accessed 9 May 2022)

54 Coronavirus (COVID-19) booster vaccination | The coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine (nhsinform.scot)

55 Public Health Scotland: Covid-19 Daily Dashboard (accessed 9 May 2022)

56 The roll out of dose 4 vaccination programme is still ongoing. As a result, figures for dose 4 can be affected by the different stages of this programme across different areas and settings.

57 Public Health Scotland: COVID-19 Statistical Report (published 11 May 2022)

58 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): ONS Infection Survey - Antibody Data for Scotland (Published 4 May 2022)

59 Office For National Statistics: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, antibody data, UK (Published 4 May 2022)

60 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): ONS Infection Survey - Antibody Data for Scotland (Published 4 May 2022)

61 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): ONS Infection Survey - Antibody Data for Scotland (Published 4 May 2022)

62 COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report: week 17 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

63 COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report: week 17 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

64 University of Edinburgh: Severity of Omicron variant of concern and vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease

65 Imperial College Covid-19 response team: Report 50: Hospitalisation risk for Omicron cases in England

66 UK Health Security Agency: SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation

67 Risk of COVID-19 related deaths for SARS-CoV-2 Omicron (B.1.1.529) compared with Delta (B.1.617.2) | medRxiv

68 SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation (publishing.service.gov.uk)

69 Variants: distribution of case data, 6 May 2022 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

70 Risk assessment for SARS-CoV-2 variants V-22APR-03 and V-22APR-04 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

71 From the 31 March 2022, panels A and B have been merged into one survey and are now run fortnightly. These data points are reported as at the first day of the survey week. Further details of this are presented in the Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): modelling the epidemic (Issue 99, published 12 May 2022)

72 Using wastewater data to 3 May 2022.

73 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): modelling the epidemic (Issue 99, published 12 May 2022)

74 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (Covid-19): modelling the epidemic (Issue 99, published 12 May 2022)

75 Office for National Statistics: Prevalence of ongoing symptoms following coronavirus (COVID-19) infection in the UK (published 6 May 2022)

Contact

Email: sgcentralanalysisdivision@gov.scot

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