Information

Coronavirus (COVID-19) state of the epidemic - 3 December 2021

This report brings together the different sources of evidence and data about the Covid epidemic to summarise the current situation, why we are at that place, and what is likely to happen next.

This document is part of a collection


Footnotes

1 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

2 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

3 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

4 Scottish Government: https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/ (week on week comparison may be affected by data flow issue.)

5 Public Health Scotland COVID-19 statistical report

6 Public Health Scotland Covid-19 dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

7 Source: Public Health Scotland

8 Public Health Scotland: PHS COVID-19 Education report (shinyapps.io)

9 https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

10 Note: Due to periods of public holiday the last samples obtained for the wastewater analysis have been from 25 November, and thus the data are slightly outdated this week.

11 Scottish Government: https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

12 ibid

13 ICU or combined ICU/HDU (with length of stay 28 days or less and with length of stay more than 28 days). Please note that only patients with length of stay 28 days or less in ICU were recorded until 20 January 2021. From 20 January 2021 ICU short and long stay includes both ICU or combined ICU/HDU with length of stay 28 days or less and with length of stay more than 28 days.

14 Public Health Scotland dashboard: COVID-19 Daily Dashboard - PHS COVID-19 | Tableau Public.

15 Public Health Scotland COVID-19 statistical report

16 Public Health Scotland COVID-19 Statistical Report

17 ibid

18 NRS Scotland: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-publications/weekly-and-monthly-data-on-births-and-deaths/deaths-involving-coronavirus-covid-19-in-scotland

19 ibid

20 Public Health Scotland COVID19 statistical report

21 ibid

22 ibid

23 Public Health Scotland Covid-19 dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

24 Public Health Scotland Covid-19 dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

25 Public Health Scotland

26 Office for National Statistics: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, antibody and vaccination data, UK - Office for National Statistics

27 Source: YouGov online survey. Total sample size on 30 November – 1 December was 1001 adults. Sample size for those who have not yet received their first vaccine was 48 adults. ‘Likely’ to be vaccinated refers to respondents who rated themselves 8 to 10 on a scale of 0-10 for the question: How likely or unlikely are you to be vaccinated for COVID-19 when a vaccine becomes available to you? (Please select a number between 0 and 10, where 0 means 'extremely unlikely' and 10 means 'extremely likely')

28 Public Health Scotland Covid dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

29 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

30 ibid

31 UK Government: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

32 UK Government: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

33 Office for National Statistics: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases

34 Office for National Statistics: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, antibody and vaccination data, UK - Office for National Statistics

35 Office for National Statistics: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/2december2021

36 https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-additional-data-and-information/

37 Ibid.

38 S1236_Eighty-nineth_SAGE.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)

39 Risk assessment for SARS-CoV-2 variant: VOC-21APR-02 (B.1.617.2) (publishing.service.gov.uk)

40 S1284_SAGE_92_minutes.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)

41 Variants: distribution of cases data - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

42 Brief note on SARS-CoV-2 variants (publishing.service.gov.uk)

43 Brief note on SARS-CoV-2 B.1.351 - 27 January 2021 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

44 Brief note on SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern P.1 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

45 Variants: distribution of cases data - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

46 Research and analysis overview: VEEP: Vaccine effectiveness table, 24 September 2021 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

47 Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey Technical Article: Impact of vaccination on testing positive in the UK - Office for National Statistics

48 COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 44 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

49 BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 Vaccine Effectiveness against Death from the Delta Variant | NEJM

50 COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 46 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

51 JCVI statement, September 2021: COVID-19 booster vaccine programme for winter 2021 to 2022 - GOVUK (www.gov.uk)

52 JCVI advice on the UK vaccine response to the Omicron variant - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

53 COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 46 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

54 Update on Omicron (who.int)

55 https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.47.2101021

56 Results are taken from questions run on behalf of Scottish Government on the YouGov online omnibus survey. The sample is demographically and geographically representative of adults 18+ across Scotland, with c. 1000 responses each week. Fieldwork took place on 30 November – 1 December with a total sample size of 1001 adults. ‘Complete’ or ‘almost complete’ compliance refers to respondents who rated themselves 6 or 7 on a scale of 1-7 for the question: Thinking about ALL of the guidance on what to do and what not to do during the Coronavirus pandemic (including distancing, protection measures and all restrictions).On a scale of 1-7, where 1 is 'Not at all' and 7 is 'Completely', to what extent do you feel you are following the regulations and guidance?

57 Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

58 The difference between the scenarios: ‘Central’ assumes that infections will plateau at the current level or fall slightly. ‘Worse’ assumes a rise in transmission from the current level. ‘Better’ assumes a drop in transmission All scenarios are based on current vaccine roll-out plans and efficacy assumptions.

Contact

Email: modellingcoronavirus@gov.scot

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