Publication - Research and analysis

Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 1 October 2021

This report brings together the different sources of evidence and data about the Covid epidemic to summarise the current situation, why we are at that place, and what is likely to happen next.

Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 1 October 2021
Footnotes

Footnotes

1. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

2. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

3. Scottish Government: https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/ Due to technical issues data was not available on 16 September and figures provided on 17, 18 and 19 September are not directly comparable to other dates, therefore, users should exercise caution when making week on week comparisons between the period 17-23 September and 24 -30 September. For more information see https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

4. Public Health Scotland COVID-19 statistical report

5. Public Health Scotland Covid-19 dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

6. Source: Public Health Scotland

7. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

8. Scottish Government: https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

9. Public Health Scotland dashboard: COVID-19 Daily Dashboard - PHS COVID-19 | Tableau Public

10. Public Health Scotland COVID-19 Statistical Report

11. ibid

12. Public Health Scotland COVID-19 Statistical Report

13. ICU or combined ICU/HDU (with length of stay 28 days or less)

14. NRS Scotland: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vitalevents/general-publications/weekly-and-monthly-data-on-births-and-deaths/deaths-involving-coronavirus-covid- 19-in-scotland

15. ibid

16. Public Health Scotland COVID19 statistical report

17. ibid

18. Office for National Statistics: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases

19. Office for National Statistics: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, antibody and vaccination data, UK - Office for National Statistics

20. Office for National Statistics:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/2september2021

21. UK Government: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

22. ibid

23. Public Health Scotland Covid dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

24. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

25. Public Health Scotland: PHS COVID-19 Education report (shinyapps.io)

26. Public Health Scotland

27. Office for National Statistics: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, antibody and vaccination data, UK -
Office for National Statistics

28. Results are taken from questions run on behalf of Scottish Government on the YouGov online omnibus
survey. The sample is demographically and geographically representative of adults 18+ across Scotland, with c.
1000 responses each week. Fieldwork took place on 21-22 September with a total sample size of 1005 adults.
‘Complete’ or ‘almost complete’ compliance refers to respondents who rated themselves 6 or 7 on a scale of 1-7
for the question: Thinking about ALL of the guidance on what to do and what not to do during the Coronavirus
pandemic (including distancing, protection measures and all restrictions).On a scale of 1-7, where 1 is 'Not at all'
and 7 is 'Completely', to what extent do you feel you are following the regulations and guidance?

29. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

30. The difference between the scenarios: ‘Central’ assumes that infections will plateau at the current level. ‘Better’ assumes that infections will continue to fall.. Only ‘Better’ and ‘Central’ scenarios have been included as there has been an improvement and ‘Worse’ is less likely. ‘Worse’ may return in future projections. All scenarios are based on current vaccine roll-out plans and efficacy assumptions.

31. Public Health Scotland Covid-19 dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID- 19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

32. ibid

33. Public Health Scotland Covid-19 dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

34. Source: YouGov online survey. Total sample size on 21-22 September was 1005 adults. Sample size for those
who have not yet received their first vaccine was 56 adults. ‘Likely’ to be vaccinated refers to respondents who
rated themselves 8 to 10 on a scale of 0-10 for the question: How likely or unlikely are you to be vaccinated for
COVID-19 when a vaccine becomes available to you? (Please select a number between 0 and 10, where 0
means 'extremely unlikely' and 10 means 'extremely likely')

35. S1236_Eighty-nineth_SAGE.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)

36. Risk assessment for SARS-CoV-2 variant: VOC-21APR-02 (B.1.617.2) (publishing.service.gov.uk)

37. S1284_SAGE_92_minutes.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)

38. Variants: distribution of cases data - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

39. Brief note on SARS-CoV-2 variants (publishing.service.gov.uk)

40. Brief note on SARS-CoV-2 B.1.351 - 27 January 2021 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

41. Brief note on SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern P.1 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

42. Variants: distribution of cases data - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

43. New studies — Nuffield Department of Medicine (ox.ac.uk)

44. COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 34 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

45. SARS-CoV-2 Delta VOC in Scotland: demographics, risk of hospital admission, and vaccine effectiveness - The Lancet

46. VEEP: Vaccine effectiveness table, 27 August 2021 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)


Contact

Email: modellingcoronavirus@gov.scot