Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no.115)

Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement.

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Technical Annex

What levels of Covid-19 are indicated by wastewater data?

Table 1 provides population weighted daily averages for normalised wastewater Covid-19 levels in the weeks ending 7th December and 14th December 2022, with no estimate for error. This is given in Million gene copies per person per day. Coverage is given as percentage of inhabitants in each local authority covered by a wastewater Covid‑19 sampling site delivering data during this period.

Table 1. Average Covid-19 wastewater levels (Mgc/p/d).
Local Authority (LA) w/e 7th December w/e 14th December Coverage
Aberdeen City 46 92 99 %
Aberdeenshire 46 62 52 %
Angus 43 48 68 %
Argyll and Bute 9 %
City of Edinburgh 55 104 97 %
Clackmannanshire 39 134 92 %
Dumfries and Galloway 29 27 37 %
Dundee City 43 69 100 %
East Ayrshire 58 69 72 %
East Dunbartonshire 79 91 99 %
East Lothian 52 92 74 %
East Renfrewshire 64 100 95 %
Falkirk 48 47 95 %
Fife 38 47 75 %
Glasgow City 61 76 98 %
Highland 42 4 %
Inverclyde 29 65 92 %
Midlothian 56 90 88 %
Moray 15 92 56 %
Na h-Eileanan Siar 0 %
North Ayrshire 32 67 92 %
North Lanarkshire 40 44 95 %
Orkney Islands 8 0 %
Perth and Kinross 26 29 39 %
Renfrewshire 48 96 57 %
Scottish Borders 50 52 47 %
Shetland Islands 1 1 29 %
South Ayrshire 67 78 88 %
South Lanarkshire 43 47 85 %
Stirling 19 44 63 %
West Dunbartonshire 79 92 48 %
West Lothian 37 29 85 %

Contact

Email: sgcentralanalysisdivision@gov.scot

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