Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no.94)

Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement.

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1. Please note that Public Health Scotland experienced technical issues from 12th to 13th March, meaning that no cases could be reported on these dates and were instead added to case numbers by reporting date on 14th March. Additionally, the 15th March figure covers less than a 24 hour period and is likely to be an undercount. The Scottish Government modelling used data from a range of sources, some of which were affected by these issues.

2. Using data to 14th March.

3. Particular care should be taken when interpreting this estimate as it is based on low numbers of cases, hospitalisations, or deaths and / or dominated by clustered outbreaks. It should not be treated as robust enough to inform policy decisions alone.

4. The cyan bars use Covid-19 test data and purple bars use multiple sources of data. The estimates produced by the Scottish Government are the two on the left. (Yellow uses confirmed cases from PHS; green uses wastewater data). The UKHSA consensus range is the right-most (red). Data to 14th March 2022. R and growth rate as of 1st March 2022.

5. For this graph, a wastewater RNA average using the last 7 days of data is computed at every sampling date. Prevalence estimates and 95% confidence intervals from the ONS Coronavirus Infection Survey are overlaid, with a scale chosen to approximately match wastewater COVID-19 levels in 2022.

6. We have not been able to provide estimates for Na h-Eileanan Siar, Orkney Islands or Shetland Islands this week.

7. Advancements in detection and interpretation practices allow us to identify when outlying results are anomalous rather than indicators of spikes in Covid-19 levels. Table 2 provides population weighted daily averages for normalised WW Covid-19 levels with the outliers removed. See Technical Annex in Issue 60 of these Research Findings for further details.

8. Coverage as for week ending 15th March 2022.



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