Publication - Research and analysis

Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no.85)

Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement.

Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no.85)


1. Further changes to COVID-19 reporting - News - Public Health Scotland

2. Using data to 10th January 2022.

3. Particular care should be taken when interpreting this estimate as it is based on low numbers of cases, hospitalisations, or deaths and / or dominated by clustered outbreaks. It should not be treated as robust enough to inform policy decisions alone.

4. The cyan bars use Covid-19 test data and purple bars use multiple sources of data. The estimates produced by the Scottish Government are the two on the left. (Yellow uses confirmed cases from PHS and deaths from NRS; green uses wastewater data). The UKHSA consensus range is the right‑most (red). Data to 4th January 2022. R, incidence and growth rate as of 21st December 2021.

5. See Figure 6

6. All projections are based on current vaccine roll-out plans and efficacy assumptions. Data to 5th January 2022.

7. The actual positive tests are adjusted to coincide with the estimated day of infection.