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Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no.84)

Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement.

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Technical Annex

How have the Scottish Contact Survey panels been replenished?

Two new panels have been created from the recent recruitment and have run alongside current panels A & B since November 2021. The new panels have been combined with the established panels to maintain numbers and demographic representation.

Panels A and B have experienced a drop off of participants since commencement. Figure 20 shows the mean overall contacts for the established panels (A and B) compared against the combined panels (A2 and B2). The combined panels initially show higher overall contacts, by 17%, which is likely due to the new respondents maintaining participation amongst individuals with high contacts, whilst the original panels, A and B, have seen a significant drop off in contacts over time, likely losing these individuals.

Figure 21: Mean Adult Contacts (truncated at 100) from SCS for established and new panels.

A bar chart showing the mean adult contacts in the Scottish Contact Survey for established and new panels.

Breaking down the contacts into settings, differences in results are seen for contacts in the other setting and at work. This supports the notion that the remaining participants in the established panels (A and B) have fewer commitments.

Figure 22: Average (mean) contacts by setting for adults in Scotland, truncated to 100 contacts per participant (from SCS) for established and combined panels.

A series of bar charts showing the average (mean) contacts by setting for adults in Scotland, truncated to 100 contacts per participant (from SCS) for established and combined panels.

What levels of Covid-19 are indicated by wastewater data?

Table 2 provides population weighted daily averages for normalised WW Covid-19 levels in the weeks ending 21st December 2021 and 4th January 2022, with no estimate for error. This is given in Million gene copies per person, which approximately corresponds to new cases per 100,000 per day. Coverage is given as percentage of LA inhabitants covered by a wastewater Covid‑19 sampling site delivering data during this period[13].

Table 2. Average daily cases per 100k as given by WW data [14].
Local authority (LA) w/e 21st December w/e 4th January Coverage
Aberdeen City 104 317 80%
Aberdeenshire 69 241 33%
Angus 100 173 43%
Argyll and Bute 105 3%
City of Edinburgh 162 212 98%
Clackmannanshire 42 268 70%
Dumfries & Galloway 106 234 23%
Dundee City 133 173 100%
East Ayrshire 72 246 72%
East Dunbartonshire 173 161 99%
East Lothian 163 214 56%
East Renfrewshire 129 334 95%
Falkirk 159 227 43%
Fife 124 207 84%
Glasgow City 151 248 75%
Highland 62 4%
Inverclyde 122 226 98%
Midlothian 154 208 88%
Moray 131 38 42%
Na h-Eileanan Siar 0%
North Ayrshire 80 202 30%
North Lanarkshire 145 224 80%
Orkney Islands 3 0%
Perth and Kinross 52 98 38%
Renfrewshire 165 210 97%
Scottish Borders 101 126 40%
Shetland Islands 5 4 29%
South Ayrshire 76 200 88%
South Lanarkshire 150 301 54%
Stirling 74 74 53%
West Dunbartonshire 90 142 98%
West Lothian 147 214 68%

Contact

Email: modellingcoronavirus@gov.scot

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