Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no. 56)

Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement.

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1 Particular care should be taken when interpreting this estimate as it is based on low numbers of cases, hospitalisations, or deaths and / or dominated by clustered outbreaks. It should not be treated as robust enough to inform policy decisions alone.

2 Social Contacts and Mixing Patterns Relevant to the Spread of Infectious Diseases (

3 Contacts in context: large-scale setting-specific social mixing matrices from the BBC Pandemic project | medRxiv

4 Deaths, Cases and Hospitalisations from PHS COVID-19 daily cases in Scotland dashboard.

5 Vaccination and contact data for the 0-17 age cohort is not presented due to the vast majority of this age group not being offered vaccinations and the SCS excluding contacts between children.

6 The actual positive tests are adjusted to coincide with the estimated day of infection.

7 Both scenarios are based on current vaccine roll-out plans and efficacy assumptions.

8 Actual data does not include full numbers of CPAP. ICU bed actuals include all ICU patients being treated for Covid-19 including those over 28 days.

9 Based at Edinburgh University, Strathclyde University Aberdeen University and Public Health Scotland.

10 SARS-CoV-2 Delta VOC in Scotland: demographics, risk of hospital admission, and vaccine effectiveness - The Lancet

11 Numbers are included in Table 1 in the Technical Annex.

12 In both cases, we exclude an anomalous February reading from Seafield, Edinburgh – see issue 40 for details.

13 The black line and red shaded area provide a smoothed curve and confidence interval estimated from a generalised additive model based on a Tweedie distribution.

14 This week we report on a subset of local authorities for their rates of positive tests per 100K due to the uncertainty around the spread of the Delta variant.

15 Advancements in detection and interpretation practices allow us to identify when outlying results are anomalous rather than indicators of spikes in Covid-19 levels. Table 2 provides population weighted daily averages for normalised WW Covid-19 levels both with and without the outliers removed.

16 Coverage as at the week beginning 4th June 2021.



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