Publication - Research and analysis

Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no. 54)

Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement.

29 page PDF

1.3 MB

29 page PDF

1.3 MB

Contents
Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no. 54)
Footnotes

29 page PDF

1.3 MB

Footnotes

1. Particular care should be taken when interpreting this estimate as it is based on low numbers of cases, hospitalisations, or deaths and / or dominated by clustered outbreaks. They should not be treated as robust enough to inform policy decisions alone.

2. Deaths, Cases and Hospitalisations from PHS COVID-19 daily cases in Scotland dashboard. Covid-19 hospital admissions data is shown up to 23rd May 2021.

3. Vaccination and contact data for the 0-17 age cohort is not presented due to the vast majority of this age group not being offered vaccinations and the SCS excluding contacts between children.

4. Four week projections are included here.

5. Both scenarios are based on current vaccine roll-out plans and efficacy assumptions.

6. The actual positive tests are adjusted to coincide with the estimated day of infection.

7. Actual data does not include full numbers of CPAP. ICU bed actuals include all ICU patients being treated for Covid-19 including those over 28 days.

8. Four week projections are provided here: Scientific evidence supporting the government response to coronavirus (COVID-19) - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

9. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/963359/S1072_SPI-M-O_Statement_on_relaxation_of_NPI_scenarios__schools_.pdf

10. Based at Edinburgh University, Strathclyde University Aberdeen University and Public Health Scotland.

11. Based on S Gene positive, which is a proxy for the Delta variant.

12. Based on S gene dropout, which is a proxy for the Alpha variant.

13. See Technical Annex in Issue 34 of these Research Findings for the methodology.

14. In both cases, we exclude an anomalous February reading from Seafield, Edinburgh – see issue 40 for details.

15. The black line and red shaded area provide a smoothed curve and confidence interval estimated from a GAM based on a Tweedie distribution.

16. Note that this health board is made up of three local authority areas, however all three show similar patterns in both cases and WW Covid-19.


Contact

Email: modellingcoronavirus@gov.scot